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Originally posted by rhinoceros
If it was real all casinos of the world would have been bankrupted a long time ago.
In physics, a force is any influence that causes a free body to undergo a change in speed, a change in direction, or a change in shape. Force can also be described by intuitive concepts such as a push or pull that can cause an object with mass to change its velocity
You didn't read carefully enough. Bem's own analysis of his own work says that without replication it's not considered valid and to my knowledge replications have not lived up to Bem's expectations.
originally posted by: Matrix Rising
I was reading over Bem's study again and this is truly a breakthrough. The study clearly supports ESP and Precognition.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Psi might take some skill to use, but the most "highly skilled psi experts" can't demonstrate any significant ability, so there is understandable mainstream skepticism when they've tested for it and the results are so statistically insignificant as to be unconvincing.
In 2011, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology published a report of nine experiments purporting to demonstrate that an individual’s cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition (Bem, 2011). To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 × 10-10 with an effect size (Hedges’ g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 1.4 × 10^9, greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for “decisive evidence” in support of the experimental hypothesis (Jeffries, 1961). The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size to a trivial value is 547. Several tests demonstrate that the database is not significantly compromised by publication bias, selection bias, or by “p-hacking,” the selective suppression of findings or statistical analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. An analysis of p–curve, the distribution of significant p values (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014a; 2014b) estimates the true effect size of the database to be 0.20, virtually identical to the effect size of Bem’s original studies (0.22). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi.
I didn't say no successful replications have occurred. I said "Replications have not lived up to Bem's expectations." Here is an example of what I mean:
originally posted by: neoholographic
a reply to: Arbitrageur
That's actually wrong. Bem successful replications have occurred
So for my statement to not be true, the study they reference with an a priori power of 95% should have shown a significant effect. The "This is surprising" statement is an example of why I say it didn't meet their expectations. If it met their expectations, they wouldn't have been surprised and such a high power study should have shown an effect. It did not.
...we admit that unsuccessful study 2 had an a priori power of 95% and yet did not reveal any significant effect. This is surprising and constitutes from a frequentist point of view a clear empirical failure of finding evidence for retro-causation.