Dangerous Times For South Korea

One way or another the extremely secretive North Korean regime will or is in a translational stage to a new leader in Kim Jong Woon(SP?) .Kim son what ever his name is at some stage will need to consolidate power for himself and the regime . The two reasons for North Korea to invade its Southern neighbours around this time is if the regime is perceived or is in danger then a war will be used to try and distract the masses . This is why the Argentine(SP?) regime started the Falklands war . The other reason is for Kim successor to consolidate power as mentioned above .

Since the regime is so secretive educated guess work is required to work out what is going on . My educated guess is that Woon is in the process of consolidating his and the regimes power and control over its leaders and population . An internal power struggle either between or both those who want to be in charge with Woon as the regime public figure head or members of the regime will be jockeying to get into his favoured inner circle .
Is the North Korean regime in danger of falling ?
Well not of immanent collapse but it must be said that things don't look good for the regime . The army keeps the regime in power and the army is being sustained by food aid from overseas . The North Korean regime has no friends left before they got Nukes China was happy to have them as a member of the anti US brigade. But now the regime is just to crazy even for the Chinese . China leaders don't care about the human misery the North Korean regime inflicts on its people after all they work with Mugabe . But they do know what the after effects of the use of a Nuclear weapon is even if there country wasn't the target

My conclusion with the British cut backs being extra incentive with in the next two years North Korea will successfully occupy its Southern neighbour ..

..... yes but the usa has a allience with them and would deffintally intervien little kim couldent do anything then....

maybe as like most tyrants lil kim went to good college or uni in the US or uk like most do and know thw big bad west isnt that bad and will find his dad a r-tard cos hes been filling his people full of the proverbial since he was born, so maybe itll work that way.then you have to ask yourself who is the right side ? anyone who can answer that i give great respect to

Originally posted by tamenie
..... yes but the usa has a allience with them and would deffintally intervien little kim couldent do anything then....

The problem is that the troops needed to re enforce the defenders have to come from somewhere or even exist and then they have to be transported to South Korea . North Korea is sure to target any points in the South that could be used to supply and re enforce the defenders . If the North Korean don't settle for a return to pre war borders in exchange for massive amounts of aid then it would be a war of survival for them , which is how I suspect things will pan out . The logical effort to re enforce and support the efforts would be considerable and likely to much for the US and its allies .

Assuming for moment I am wrong about the ability of the allies to defend South Korea then the only way to win the war would be to bleed the North Koreans out of man power and material such as ammunition . Hopefully they would run out of material supply before manpower otherwise they would send men and old boys to the front . The public wouldn't support a war in Korea for very long and people would revolt at the killing of children even if they are armed with anti tank weapons . The psychological effects on the allied soldiers who have or had to face those kids in combat would be nothing short of awful .

I wouldn't want to be a POW or Civilian captured by the North Korean because they hardly have enough food for themselves little alone prisoners . Those taken captive would likely eat a bullet .

reply to post by xpert11


I was sort of with you until your last line about how you believe this year DPRK will successfully occupy South Korea. What about those 35,000 American military personnel how is DPRK going to get past them, that alone is why they will not attempt a invasion of South Korea. In an attempt to cement the power of the new leader who will in all probability be Kim Jong-un they may launch an attack against South Korea and make a mistake leading to South Korea re-engage them in a return to the old war with American backing South Korea and as a result a unified Korea will be formed.

This is the current goal of the Chinese, a united Korea would make for a more stable treading partner. I have even heard that China will help create a unified Korea with direct military force. I would however be very surprised if this happened this year.

You yourself pointed out how fragile the DPRK government is, they can’t take a risk at losing their power by starting a unwinnable war.

reply to post by kevinunknown


Well you offer a different and interesting perceptive. Things would be much better if you were right and I was wrong . To be honest its my view that the defenders in South Korea would run out of bullets before North Korea had finished sending its troops south . The wild card could be China entering the war on the side of the allies in order to gain post war reconstruction contracts and persecute any historical bug bears that may exist . Look how long it took Hitler to realize that Germany had World War Two the North Korean regime would be the same .

Cheers xpert11.

have you ever heard that three U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups already in waters of south Korea
USA is the supporter of south Korea and will help south Korea if there is military conflict between North and South Korea

reply to post by dccruibay


The aircraft on those flat tops could well fly missions against strategic targets and or tactical support missions in support of allied troops until they run out of munitions . If the North Koreans can swarm to the South before the defenders can mobilize then they are a good chance of full filling my prediction . South Korea is the only part of the world that I know of where by an army that doesn't have a military doctrine that in the least involves some mobility and still have a chance at winning the war . The problem for the defenders is that they can't trade space for time because if they did that they would be in the drink .

reply to post by xpert11


I know this is going to sound really arrogant but.

I am right and you are wrong, if in the incredibly unlikely event of a return to war on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea would last perhaps on a few months then the UN with the backing of China would seek to establish a united Korea and no longer would North Korea exist. To assume anything else is possible is a demonstration that you are ignorant of the facts.

reply to post by kevinunknown


Do you think that the war could even go on for months in the court of public opinion ?
When you consider some of the moronic reaction , ( you know the insurgents can do no wrong but US military is evil or the anti establishment crowd) to footage of insurgents in say Iraq being killed by a US chopper firing at them just think how those same idiotic people would react to carnage of a war in Korea.

Cheers xpert11

reply to post by xpert11


The comparison between Iraq and DPRK is unfair and incorrect, just like it is incorrect to compare Iraq to Iran. In fact it is reasonable to assume that once the military of DPRK was defeated there would be very little in the way of insurgency groups. Just now however it is reasonable to say there is not going to be a return to war on the Korean Peninsula, so this debate is entirely hypothetical.

To claim that in a hypothetical return to war between DPRK and South Korea, and that DPRK would win is as fallacious as claiming that in a hypothetical war between America and Belgium, Finland would win.