Solar Activity Watch 2011

Thanks all for the updates - this time the M Flare is facing earth.

Well, I try and keep an eye on things, but am more an avid quake watcher vs sun. However, even I know that we don't get too many M class flares that are earth directed. Should make for quite a show...perhaps I'll be able to see some auroras in Washington State next week? Or would that take an X class?

Thanks for all the updates, you guys rock!!!

reply to post by boo1981


Ha, finally. I checked them right as I posted that. They are almost always slow but they seem to eventually get it.

reply to post by westcoast


It depends on material ejected moreso than the class. Of course the stronger the flare the more potential for stonger effects.

reply to post by boo1981


Hey boo1981, did you catch the part about the possible CME erupting?

Hmmm?

reply to post by westcoast


No westcoast...you rock!

Your NW threads are fantastic!

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yes i did see that too, it has launch it toward earth. Will be interesting to see if we have any significant quakes over the next 48hrs or so.

reply to post by boo1981


That is actually one of the main reasons I started the watch last year. I am very curious to see what happens when the CME hits.

I wasn't on ATS much this past December or the beginning of January, but I am really glad this thread was re-made from last year.

We will have to wait and see!

reply to post by lasertaglover


Well when I joined ATS the first thread I made was about solar flares/CME's and is there a link to earthquakes.

Here is the link: Sunspots and Earthquakes

I had been thinking for quite some time could there be a link to Sun activity and quakes. I went through 2010 up to July 14th, sunspots and quakes to see if there were any links between the two.
I came to the thinking, that maybe there could be a link. But I would need to go further back over the years to see weather there is a trend.
I meant to keep it up dated but never had the time. So may get back into it now as I have the spare time.

Originally posted by westcoast
Well, I try and keep an eye on things, but am more an avid quake watcher vs sun. However, even I know that we don't get too many M class flares that are earth directed. Should make for quite a show...perhaps I'll be able to see some auroras in Washington State next week? Or would that take an X class? I

Thanks for all the updates, you guys rock!!!

I think it is the solar wind that gives us our northern lights,.
the Coronal holes are what to watch for to see the lights
spaceweather.com... tells you at the left mid page

spaceweather.com... added some more info:

"Preliminary coronagraph data from STEREO-A and SOHO agree that the explosion produced a fast but not particularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME). The cloud will likely hit Earth's magnetic field on or about Feb. 15th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

The source of this activity, sunspot 1158 is growing rapidly (48 hour movie). The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. More Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead."

Let's all keep watching!

Yeah, it appears that the levels of xray flux are gonna stay high, and I now wonder what the potential of X class flares might be.

Thanks for keeping watch and providing timely information.

reply to post by rbkruspe


It just might be a wild ride this week.

1158 and the M-class, and if you look at the images at SDO, 1160 looks like it is going to be a monster also.

sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

reply to post by rbkruspe


Spaceweather predictions - a 30% chance of M Flares and only 5% chance of an X Flare.

I think we're going to be alright.

Yes I think Crazydaisy is correct,.
Dont think we have much to worry about here,.
Maybe some radio and cell phone interference

For sure. It is not anything to worry about at all.

BUT, it is a very active period with lots to watch. With 2 huge spot areas, it will be a wild week for sure!

Checked around the 2010 forum too see if had already been posted. didnt see it around and thought it was worth sharing. Even just for the image quality. Originally sited from the Nasa Picture of the day blog which often times is very surprizing with how stunning the quailty of pictures can be. Especially with the posts about Solar Promineces and Solar Flares. Which for the past few years have consistently been trumping the last. This one in perticular pictured above was stated by nasa to quote "The filament had been seen hovering over the Sun's surface for over a week before it erupted earlier this month...showing how widely separated areas of the Sun can sometimes act in unison. Explosions like this will likely become more common over the next few years as our Sun moves toward Solar Maximum activity." Even though they clearly state the solar maximum to be over the next few years. they consistanly refrain from writing the year 2012 which is clearly inside "the next few years" as if there's no significance at all? Funny. Evne After NASA ,now famously stated publically for the year 2012 to be "likely the largest solar maximum every recorded"



Anyhow just thought i share that. Heres the site for APOD worth the bookmark even just for the stunning Hubble space panorama's and occasionally Jem video.

Original solar flare post apod.nasa.gov...

Homepage apod.nasa.gov...

*Second Post as ATS member

Originally posted by lasertaglover
For sure. It is not anything to worry about at all.

BUT, it is a very active period with lots to watch. With 2 huge spot areas, it will be a wild week for sure!

Yes I agree,.
Also,. last week it was in the below zeros
and today it hit 48,.
just so happens there were 4 big sunspots on the earth facing side,.
this week has been predicted to be above normal for temps.
no coincidence to me

Spaceweather is showing that 1158 is now with a 35% chance for an M-class flare, with still only a 5% chance of an X-class.

ACTIVE 35 % 35 %
MINOR 05 % 10 %
SEVERE 01 % 01 %

spaceweather.com...