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Space Weather News for Oct. 7, 2011 spaceweather.com... DRACONID METEOR SHOWER: On Saturday, October 8th, Earth will pass through a network of dusty filaments shed by Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. Forecasters expect the encounter to produce anywhere from a few dozen to a thousand meteors per hour visible mainly over Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. The meteors will stream from the northern constellation Draco--hence their name, the "Draconids." Check spaceweather.com... for full coverage of the event including observing times and a live audio stream from a meteor radar.
Region Flare Probabilities (%) Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class 11309 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11311 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11312 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) 11313 Dai 38(40) 11(5) 2(0)11314 Cho 15(20) 2(5) 1(0) 11315 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(0) 11316 Dai 38(30) 11(5) 2(0) 11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0) NOTE: Values in brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page. Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research. Home Forecast Search News Credits GOES X-rays Protons Electrons ACE Plasma B Field SDO/EVE 3 Day 6 Hour Geo-Mag Now-cast Events HEK SolarSoft SWPC MM MotD IDL
Regions 11316 and S1267 have developed further with both becoming capable of producing minor M class flares. Flare activity has increased significantly today because of the development in these two regions.
Space Weather News for Oct. 14, 2011 spaceweather.com... ROSAT RE-ENTRY: The ROSAT X-ray observatory, launched in 1990 by NASA and managed for years by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), will return to Earth within the next two weeks. Current best estimates place the re-entry between Oct. 22nd and 24th over an unknown part of Earth. ROSAT will produce a spectacular fireball when it re-enters, but not all of the satellite will disintegrate. According to the DLR, heat-resistant fragments as massive as 1.7 tons could reach Earth's surface. Check spaceweather.com... for more information.
The recent revelations on the Sun's ultraviolet variability come from a Nasa satellite called the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), launched in 2003.
Among its instruments is the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), which analyses the Sun's output at frequencies in the infrared, visible and ultraviolet parts of the spectrum.
SIM is giving scientists a detailed picture of how the Sun's ultraviolet emissions vary over its regular 11-year cycle of waxing and waning energy
The results of the modelling re-inforce the idea that the UV variations affect winter weather across the region; and they indicate how it may happen.
UV is absorbed in the stratosphere, the upper atmosphere, by ozone. So in the quiet bit of the solar cycle, when there is less UV to absorb, the stratosphere is relatively cooler. The Hadley Centre model shows that the effects of this percolate down through the atmosphere, changing wind speeds, including the jet stream that circles the globe above Europe, North America and Russia.
Dr Scaife emphasises that ultraviolet emissions are not the sole reason why winter temperatures vary. But understanding the UV link may improve meteorologists' capacity to predict winter weather accurately.
"Assuming these new satellite data are correct... then as the 11-year solar cycle is predictable, it's going to contribute some predictability for European and indeed UK weather," he said.
THE DECAY OF ROSAT: The doomed ROSAT X-ray space telescope continues to descend toward Earth. Multiple experts agree that re-entry should occur on Oct. 23rd, with most favoring the early hours of the day. Decay time uncertainties exceed 8 hours, so it is still impossible to say exactly where ROSAT will disintegrate.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.
Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at 19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Shown above is the most recent run of the ‘Ambient’ version of the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model of the solar wind.
The sun constantly emanates an outward wind referred to as the solar wind. The sun's 27 day rotation (as seen from Earth) imparts a spiral appearance to structures in the solar wind. Even on a ‘fair weather’ day, there are variations in the density and speed of this wind. Knowing when these wind and density structures will arrive in advance is important because they produce geomagnetic storms and can pump up the Earth's radiation belts, creating problems for satellites.
Shown above is the most recent run of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or “storm” version of the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model of the solar wind.
While the sun constantly emanates an outward wind referred to as the solar wind (seen in the ‘Ambient’ model), at irregular intervals major eruptions originating at the Sun are propelled out with the solar wind.
Variations in the density and speed in these storms is much more dramatic than on a “fair-weather” day.
Knowing when these wind and density structures will arrive in advance is important because they produce geomagnetic storms and can pump up the Earth’s radiation belts, creating problems for satellites.
While the storm model is useful, even during fair-weather days there is something interesting happening.