posted on Aug, 4 2011 @ 12:25 AM
2 days summary:
Activity Level: HIGH, 4 M- and 8 C-class flares in past two days
Most Active Region:NOAA 11261, 3 M-class and 6 C-class flares
Region most likely to flare: NOAA 11261 -- Probabilities: X(3%) M(20%) C(41%)
Cactus movie from the full Halo CME 2011/08/03 13:47 UTC
11261 has a strong magnetic delta structure in the central penumbra. An elongated negative polarity umbra has positive polarity neighboring spots both
to the north and south. There's virtually no umbral separation in the northernpart of the magnetic delta, thus creating very strong gradients. As long
as this structure remains the region will continue to produce major flares.
The region was the source of a major M9.3 event at 03:57 UTC on August 4 (associated with a fast full halo CME)
Region 11263 changed with the leader spot becoming the largest spot as the trailing penumbra fragmented into smaller penumbrae. There's still a
magnetic delta structure in a trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible.
August 2: An Earth directed CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images after the LDE in region 11261 peaking at 06:19 UTC. This CME will likely reach
Earth sometime after 09h UTC on August 4.
August 3: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images following the M6 event in region 11261 at 13:48 UTC. The CME coudl reach Earth on
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on August 4. A CME impact is likely during the latter half of the day with a possibility of
active to major storm conditions. Another CME impact is likely on August 5 (related to M6 flare). A large CME associated with the M9 event on August 4
will likely reach Earth on August 6 and cause active to major geomagnetic storming.
edit on 4-8-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason