It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Solar Activity Watch 2011

page: 21
51
<< 18  19  20    22  23  24 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jun, 1 2011 @ 06:37 PM
link   

Originally posted by intergalactic fire
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

anyone has an idea what the sphere is passing on 21-06-01 9:52:15 UTC ?

solar eclipse?
edit on 1-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)


Ok its just a lunar transit, nice watch though




posted on Jun, 1 2011 @ 07:54 PM
link   

Originally posted by NorthStargal52
I know all you guys that are talking specifics is all good .. but to a woman who reads that this possibility of a global Severe Solar Storm that is claimed to be on it's way sometime between now and 2012 or 2013 is serious biz.
The possibility of a solar storm is always there, the probability during its peak or polar shift in the '11 year' cycle is more likely to happen.But not a garantee. Some say solar cycle 24 will have its peak between end 2011 and end 2012, some say not until 2013.
IMO they dont know and they are everyday changing opinions.
2006 prediction :science.nasa.gov...
2009 prediction science.nasa.gov...
Thats why i posted the above graphs to have some opinions on what and when things will or could happen.
It is not really sure if a solar storm will happen during that period, remember solar cycle 23, it had its peak in sept 2001. 2 years later in its descend there was a X28 solar flare, and early 2011 X2.2.Lucky us it was not entirely Earth directed.

According to this butterfly graph(sunspots) you could say there is a slight increase of sunspots so this could mean more activity for this cycle so more chances for a geoeffective storm.
Scientists have real difficulties in predicting these events.



They are actually telling people to prepare for this .. and Im getting the feeling by reading some posts that this is not as severe as they claim ??

Can anyone comment on this .. should we all really start preparing now or what ?? after a discussion with my daughter minutes ago she also would like some insight to this .. they claim we would only have 12 hours notice thats hardly time enough to prepare ..

it's really hot over here now ..geesh sweating this all out lol
the weather man said this summer was going to be on the cooler side lol it started out that way but now its like
I really don't think thats the way its turning out bu only time will tell
edit on 1-6-2011 by NorthStargal52 because: sentance addition


Preparing for such an event? I dont know, I think it all depends on the scale of the event.
Solar flares are filled with charged particles so things that could happen are loss or interuptions of the power grid, communications on small and large scale.
A powerfull flare(s) could rip 'holes' in earths ionosphere that could have a negative effect on the human body.
For the extreme some say it could strip our magnetosphere or even flip earths polarities...
I think if such things would happen you will only have some small change deep underground and than i didnt mentioned geological events.
On that day i will be outside watching auroras

But you can always prepare for yourselfs if it makes you feel better.
I hope someone will share some of their ideas here



posted on Jun, 3 2011 @ 02:05 AM
link   
Here is a PDF I found regarding studies done on the 2003 events which includes the X 17.2 (upgraded later) flare. This and the following links might be helpful to determine a bit more what kind of timeframe we would have. Seems the X 17.2 had a very large magnetic filament eruption to contribute more chaos and ejected matter.

Interplanetary responses to solar activities in late October 2003

Also this is the satellite that gives earth its "warning timeframe"

ACE

This is a good one as well. This guy does a lot of forecast propagation for amateur radio and really knows his stuff.

The "word" on the X-class flare of 4-XI-2003



posted on Jun, 4 2011 @ 04:10 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

The products of the CME arrived at 20:00 UTC but seems to be short lived. Density dropped off rapidly after only an hour.

K index at Boulder is 4.

edit on 6/4/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 08:31 PM
link   
reply to post by Phage
 


There been some minor effects from the june 2 cme on earths mag field.

A rise in the solar wind magnetic field on june 5, 10+nT
A new earth directed CME june4-5
www.sidc.oma.be...



Rise in protons on june 5

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

What do you make of this rising in high energy protons Phage?




edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 09:32 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 


Interesting, I would like to see what
Phage has to say as well. Thanks
for posting and I will return.



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 09:34 PM
link   
This is quite interesting
iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...


edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 09:44 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

The increase in proton flux is probably related to this.
sidc.oma.be...



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 09:55 PM
link   

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

The increase in proton flux is probably related to this.
sidc.oma.be...

Isnt a cme the result of high and low energy protons?
And what about the increase we see happening now?
region 1226 and 1227 ?www.swpc.noaa.gov...


edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 10:11 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

CMEs can produce proton events (not vice versa). Protons tend to travel a lot faster than the rest of the stuff but that spike doesn't really count as an event. Since the CME was pretty much a full halo we'll probably see the geomagnetic effects in a few days.

There was a C-class flare a while ago. No sign of a CME from the satellites yet.



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 10:32 PM
link   

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

CMEs can produce proton events (not vice versa). Protons tend to travel a lot faster than the rest of the stuff but that spike doesn't really count as an event. Since the CME was pretty much a full halo we'll probably see the geomagnetic effects in a few days.

are we talking about this CME?
iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...


There was a C-class flare a while ago. No sign of a CME from the satellites yet.

Yes i just found out, pretty silly question,thx for pointing that out, for some reason i thought they were measuring these events on the surface

But its the satelites that gets these datas when these particles passes them, no?
Do you know how much time there is between the event( the cme and the measuring of these particles)?

edit: So will there only be an increase if they are earth directed?

edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)

edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)

edit on 5-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 10:40 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 

The CME began at 22:05.
The proton "front" arrived at ACE at 02:00.
Three or four hours.



posted on Jun, 5 2011 @ 11:01 PM
link   
reply to post by Phage
 


Thanks for your responses
This helped me understand the data better



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 03:05 AM
link   
I've been watching the sun awhile and I haven't seen it unleash a cme like this. Pretty juicy stuff!




posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 03:13 AM
link   
reply to post by BornParadox
 

Thanks for that shot.

The view from stage left.


Nothing on SOHO yet but there was an M2 flare associated with it. After being really quiet for a few days region 1226 cuts loose as it starts to slip around the corner.



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 03:26 AM
link   
Is it heading this way. And when will it arrive. There has been a bit of activity with flares this last week or so. My cell phone has been getting really poor reception. Spends all day looking for a strong signal. Im not on the new XT or 3g network. Anyone else here in NZ having the same probs. If it is these flares, then i dont need to go and get a new phone.
By the way. My phone has been working perfectly before the solar storm that started last week.



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 04:10 AM
link   


Filament blast? Or whatever its called?



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 01:25 PM
link   
Region 11226 produced a minor M2.5 proton flare at 06:41 UTC. The event was likely associated with a large and fast CME judging by the earliest images after the event. Although 11226 is approaching the southwest limb, the CME could be partially Earth directed and reach us on June 9
The M2.5 event today blew away nearly all spots in region 11226 with the slightly complex polarity situation near the main penumbra disappearing.(she was holding it up to long and had to release some energy, she was so friendly to wait untill it passed us




cactus:
www.sidc.oma.be...
www.sidc.oma.be...
edit on 7-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)

edit on 7-6-2011 by intergalactic fire because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 02:08 PM
link   
reply to post by intergalactic fire
 


It's too bad there isn't a way to shield the Earth from harmful events coming from our sun.
Maybe someday soon the USA will have the technology and the means to turn on a
temporary shield in the event of a CME coming our way.
-------------------------------
Right now we have an incredible SDO spacecraft up there so we can "observe" but
that's not good enough.
We need an active intervention apparatus up there.
-------------------------------
Most of the time the sun is " helpful " to us here on Earth.
We just need a little help when our sun becomes " harmful ".



posted on Jun, 7 2011 @ 10:50 PM
link   
reply to post by Phage
 


Phage,
Can you tell me something more about the blue and red x-ray flux plottings, the 1-8 Angstrom and the 0.5-4.0 Angstrom?
And what is WATTS stand for? something to do with density?
Thanks




top topics



 
51
<< 18  19  20    22  23  24 >>

log in

join