Solar Activity Watch 2011

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Sounds like a very high percentage for M and X Flares - do you have a link for this please?

spaceweather.com...



I see an X at 1% and M at 15%.

reply to post by crazydaisy



Here you go
But these are forecasts remember
We will have to wait what 11226 is up to, as this region is very active and growing fast

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain low
for the next three days (29-31 May) with a slight chance for an
M-class event.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels, with isolated
minor storm periods, on days 1 and 2 (29-30 May), becoming
predominantly unsettled on day 3 (31 May). This activity is in
response to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.


Latest news from the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

60-100% possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read the first and second report - the first ones says slight chance of flares.

The second statement, I still do not see those percentages on the link
you provided.

reply to post by crazydaisy


Yes i know, the two reports are saying different things, I find it a bit strange, thats why i posted them.

The second report: On the section forecast just above the pic of active solar regions, the thingy with the colors.

Yep,she is a cooking.
Here are the latest warnings.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1d9222dd9af6.png[/atsimg]

Last time we had that green bar,the earthquake happened in Japan.

reply to post by intergalactic fire

The current solar region summary shows 1226 as the only region with much of anything going on. With a Beta-Delta configuration, is not particularly large, it has 9 sunspots within it. That doesn't really indicate much strong activity to be expected but things do change.

Product: 0529SRS.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 149 Issued at 0030Z on 29 May 2011
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1216 S16W90 193 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1222 N16W66 169 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1223 S16W12 115 0020 Bxo 06 05 Beta
1224 N20W28 131 0130 Dso 07 14 Beta
1225 N17E43 060 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1226 S19E65 038 0270 Eai 11 09 Beta-Delta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1218 S16W70 173
1219 N15W27 130
II. Regions Due to Return 29 May to 31 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
1210 N18 005
1208 N08 344

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Phage


Well it just created a second M-class flare.
With solar winds up to 800km/s im thinking there is chance of more M-class flare in the coming hours, small chance for a X-class.
Turning facing earth position, it will be interesting to folow this and see its development.

Region 11226 developed quickly and was unstable and very active all day. While the region had a magnetic delta configuration in the trailing penumbra most of the day, that structure disappeared appeared the M class event. Further M class flaring is likely.

Latest soho image from Lasco3
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c2ebca3bf1a9.jpg[/atsimg]
Im taking a guess in the next coming days We will see a 7+mag earthquake, just a feeling and more...
thing can chance rapidly...
www.solen.info...
sidc.oma.be...
prop.hfradio.org...
www.lmsal.com...

Wanted to share a link for those who like watching real time 'movies' of the sun's behaviour.
GOES15 SXI, solar X-ray Imager
enjoy

reply to post by intergalactic fire


Yes,could be a big earthquake coming soon.

The strongest geomagnetic storm since the day of the great Japanese earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011 hit today beginning about 08:00 UT and lasting through about 20:00 UT. This storm which reached a daily AP level of 40 was accompanied by a strong increase in global seismicity. Four moderately strong to strong earthquakes occurred during the 12 hours of this storm including events in Sumatra (M 5.5-6.3); the Kermadec Islands (M 5.5, 5.5-6.0) and the Talaud Islands (M 5.5) and aftershocks in Honshu, Japan (M 5.5, 5.3, 5.1, 4.8). This compares with only two such events of M>=5.5 during the previous week (seven days), that is twice as many events of this magnitude level in half a day as in the previous seven days for an increase in global seismicity during the geomagnetic storm of 1400% over the previous week. The largest of these, the M 5.5-6.3 south of Sumatra occurred at almost exactly local solar midnight a prime time for geomagnetic triggering and was located 15 degrees south of the local geomagnetic equator, precisely where seismicity was expected to be strongest in our global seismic watch issued yesterday. That watch stated: " it may be more likely related to the return of geomagnetic disturbance and solar flare activity which began about the same time as these earthquakes. SWPC expects an active day in the geomagnetic field and a possible M-class solar flare during this time. Both of these can produce effects which are followed shortly by an increase in global seismicity 10-15 degrees from the geomagnetic equator, at high latitudes and in area of high heat flow such as the California-Nevada and Baja regions." (May 28, 2011)

www.earthquakesummary.info...

These are some interesting sunny times...
A new active region 11227 is forming just near the 11226 as they are still growing they could 'interact cooperate'(dont know how they say in english sorry) with eachother and produce some more activity(from my observation)
also CH452 is facing earth on 30-31 may
We may expect some solar winds from that region heading towards earth in the coming days

Update on solar activity

Region 11226 produced a long duration M1.4/1F event peaking at 10:38 UTC. This event was associated with a large CME off the east limb. While both STEREO A and B observed this as a full halo CME, the CME apparently didn't even become a partial halo CME in LASCO images. Region 11227 (formerly S1036) has developed in the leading spot section with two penumbrae forming, the easternmost one has a magnetic delta structure. Solar wind speed became unusually high today, probably due to the arrival of the stream associated with CH451. SOHO/MDI recorded a peak speed of 953 km/sec. Additionally the IMF swung significantly southwards again causing minor to major geomagnetic storming.

CME can be viewed here
CME45 recorded by CACTus on 29/05/2011 10:36
more archive data from cactus
homepage


Sorry if this site has already been posted here

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by intergalactic fire

 

The current solar region summary shows 1226 as the only region with much of anything going on. With a Beta-Delta configuration, is not particularly large, it has 9 sunspots within it. That doesn't really indicate much strong activity to be expected but things do change.

Product: 0529SRS.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 149 Issued at 0030Z on 29 May 2011
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1216 S16W90 193 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1222 N16W66 169 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1223 S16W12 115 0020 Bxo 06 05 Beta
1224 N20W28 131 0130 Dso 07 14 Beta
1225 N17E43 060 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1226 S19E65 038 0270 Eai 11 09 Beta-Delta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1218 S16W70 173
1219 N15W27 130
II. Regions Due to Return 29 May to 31 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
1210 N18 005
1208 N08 344

Things do change yes
11226 2011.05.27 12 29 S21E54 0360 EKI EKI beta-gamma-delta
www.solarmonitor.org...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Can you explain me a bit about these polarity changes?
Thanks
beautiful isnt it

New Global Views of the Sun (fall 2010)



quote: "the north pole is moving quite rapidly, the SAA also changing position, so there are indications that the internal core of the earth is very dynamic and changing envirement."

What is he saying?? Do they know more on earth changing?? Does he means there could be a polar shift heading our way?
For the solar predictions he clearly says, we understand very little on the suns behaviour, solar flares, cme, fillament eruption....

Any thoughts here?

www.swpc.noaa.gov...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

anyone has an idea what the sphere is passing on 21-06-01 9:52:15 UTC ?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f9d3010e1b18.jpg[/atsimg]
solar eclipse?

reply to post by intergalactic fire

Things do change yes
11226 2011.05.27 12 29 S21E54 0360 EKI EKI beta-gamma-delta
www.solarmonitor.org...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Can you explain me a bit about these polarity changes?
Thanks

Can you tell me where you got that report? Thanks.
I don't understand the "EKI EKI" portion.
I don't see any Beta-Gamma-Delta classification for 1226. The report you posted is dated May 27. The region was not visible on May 27. The position (S21E54) was its position on May 30th. The first time it appeared on the SRS was the May 28 report when it was classified Alpha.

The lastest SRS shows it now as Beta. This reduces the likelihood of strong activity a great deal.

Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2011 Jun 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 152 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Jun 2011
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1222 N17W98 160 0030 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1224 N21W68 133 0050 Csi 07 08 Beta
1225 N16E04 060 0030 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1226 S22E27 037 0330 Dkc 09 18 Beta
1227 S18E40 024 0190 Dsi 08 07 Beta-Gamma
1228 N17E50 014 0100 Cso 08 08 Beta
1229 N16E24 040 0040 Cso 06 06 Beta
1230 N19E58 006 0030 Bxo 02 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1219 N15W69 133
1223 S17W50 114
II. Regions Due to Return 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

You can find a rundown of the various classifications here:
theastronomer.tripod.com...

reply to post by Phage


www.solen.info...
On the end of the page there is a list of the regions, the date of 27 is when the region was detected. In section comments: first it was beta-delta, then it changed into beta-gamma-delta, yesterday they changed it into beta-gamma.
But that was the only report I saw it mentioning beta-gamma-delta

reply to post by intergalactic fire

In no SRS since 5/28 (the first time it appears) has 1226 had a Beta-Gamma-Delta classification.

5/28; Alpha
5/29; Beta-Delta
5/30; Beta-Delta
5/31; Beta-Gamma
6/01; Beta

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

I know all you guys that are talking specifics is all good .. but to a woman who reads that this possibility of a global Severe Solar Storm that is claimed to be on it's way sometime between now and 2012 or 2013 is serious biz.

They are actually telling people to prepare for this .. and Im getting the feeling by reading some posts that this is not as severe as they claim ??

Can anyone comment on this .. should we all really start preparing now or what ?? after a discussion with my daughter minutes ago she also would like some insight to this .. they claim we would only have 12 hours notice thats hardly time enough to prepare ..

it's really hot over here now ..geesh sweating this all out lol
the weather man said this summer was going to be on the cooler side lol it started out that way but now its like
I really don't think thats the way its turning out bu only time will tell

reply to post by Phage


i know the SRS didnt mentioned B-G-D
only that site i was refering too

So according to new forming sunspots, the magnetic classification of that region can change due to the new polarities of forming spots?
Is there a percentage involved in this?

Minor update added at 18:50 UTC on June 1: Region 11226 was the source of a C4.1 long duration event peaking at 17:08 UTC. This event was associated with a northwards fast moving wave and likely a CME. A CME from the current position of 11226 could easily be Earth directed and cause major geomagnetic storming.

Anyone want to share some thoughts about these graphs(solar polarity reversal)?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bdc651c0ecf6.gif[/atsimg]
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/412b0051b907.gif[/atsimg]

www.solen.info...

reply to post by intergalactic fire

The problem is your source says this:

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC.

www.solen.info...
He must have goofed. A typo perhaps. It's always better to go to the source.

I don't know what you mean by percentage. The classification is based on the configuration of sunspots within the region.