posted on Feb, 12 2012 @ 04:18 AM
If the hypothetical attack comes in the form of a ballistic missile salvo, the US / UK response will more than likely be best described as "Payment
in kind, with interest", with follow-up attacks by the USAF bomber fleet, and a diplomatic initiative in the UN. Among their other down-sides,
ballistic missiles are very easy to back-track to their launch points, so there won't be any real question of who provoked whom.
If the attack doesn't include ballistic missiles, and stops short of actual territorial invasion, there will probably be a tacit agreement not to go
nuclear. Unfortunately for the Chinese and North Korean forces, unless the USN and USAF are really wearing their idiot hats, the result is going to be
a severe mauling for the China / Korea alliance force. I'm not being a jingoistic America-phile here, believe it or not...the simple fact is that any
non-ballistic attack from China or Korea to the US has to cross the Pacific ocean, and neither China nor North Korea has sufficient blue-water combat
capability to beat the US Navy in a no-holds-barred fight.
If the attack (by some miraculous happening more in line with a Harry Turtledove novel than with realistic expectations) does include an actual
invasion of the US or UK, it's going to turn into an even bigger, more expensive disaster than the blue-water attack mentioned above. For one, there
will still be the need to clear an invasion pathway, with the attendant mauling of the attacking force. Once that bloody task is done, the
Chinese/Korean forces will have to come ashore in the face of fairly robust land-based response. Assuming that the C/K forces can open a beachhead
(not by any means a given), they then face the task of resupplying over a several-thousand-miles long supply corridor which *will* be contested by
every submarine, strike aircraft, drone, and rowboat the US and UK can throw at it, while the troops ashore face not only the (considerable) combat
power of the US Army and Marine Corps, but the reserve forces from both branches, along with police units (some of which are armed and trained to
paramilitary standard) and an armed populace (which will make up in numbers and enthusiasm what it lacks in pure firepower and training).
In short, the *best* outcome the Chinese or Koreans can reasonably expect is an embarrassing defeat with heavy losses and bad feelings all around. The
balance of power doesn't favor such an action, and the logistics are nightmarish.
If the Chinese are determined to take military action against the US, they'd probably be better off playing the "short game" and setting their
sights on Taiwan and the Philippines.