Is This China’s First Stealth Fighter? (Picture)

reply to post by Daedalus3



It was information based on the following.

It is confirmed that Chengdu air space will be closed from 1300-1500 Local (0500-0800 UTC)

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You don't issue a NOTAM, close the nearby International Airport, and launch a J-10/J-11 on patrol for nothing. Not to mention flying in VIPs on Government Boeing 737s. According to the Chinese forums the VIP Boeing 737s left long after the NOTAM ended. If it was in force just to protect the VIPs then it would have been extended accordingly.

*PLAAF 33th Air Division just launched J-10 and J-11 fighters from Chongqing to clear the air space above and near Chengdu. *Chengdu Shuangliu International airport (CTU) shut down 13:00 to 15:00 local time.

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You also don't set up a TV camera on the far side of the airfield to record nothing. The info was being relayed from spectators at the perimeter of the airfield.

The official camera guy (in the picture I posted two pages ago) stationed at end of the runway, is walking slowly to his pre-setup video tripod.

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Security were also moving people on and making broadcast to them over the public announcement systems set up.

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This process will likely be repeated next week if the weather is more favourable? Even the fence watchers at Chengdu on Friday were reporting that theweather wasn't the best.

You are failing to understand that this is nothing new at Chengdu. I would go with your 'Unless number 1' theory. The Chinese are confident that they can pull off a first flight in front of VIPs and spectator alike. People outside Chengdu were taking images of J-10 and J-11 and other newly developed aircraft dating all the way back to the late 1990s. The prototype J-10 images taxiing and flying were filmed by spectators outside Chengdu. This
airfield is on the edge of a city with a population of 5 million.

Yes the Chinese if they wanted to could build them at Chengdu and ship them out to places in the desert such as Dingxin. They don't. They build them at Chengdu and prototype test fly them at that base. It is no different to what they have done in the past with all their other newly developed aircraft. Even back in the J-10 days people outside the perimeter were reporting J-10 first flight in front of VIPs on the airfield.

Many of the better quality images of the J-10 and other aircraft on test were taken during the landing and take off phase with good quality DSLR and telephoto lens away from the immediate perimeter fence and security. There are no photography signs all round the base, but the security tend to tolerate small cameras and camera phones. It is reported on the Chinese forums that they crack down hard on DSLRs with large telephoto lenses on the perimeter with people reportedly having them confiscated.

Things have changed in China. It took them some 7 years to officially announce the J-10. With this new aircraft (J-20) they even allowed the Deputy Air Force Commander to talk on state controlled TV during 2009 of the intentions to test fly and develop this aircraft. This would have been unheard of some ten years ago.

So, in summary I see nothing out of the ordinary here and they are confident of a test flight from Chengdu. The process, as seen on Friday, will likely be exactly the same next week at Chengdu if the forecast is better.

TJ

reply to post by Darkpr0

To suggest that the Chinese are incapable of hiding such an event is a gross underestimation of an administration which so recently and so effectively hid the J-10 aircraft from even the most prying of eyes.

But they didn't hide the J-10. If they had wanted to they could have developed the J-10 completely in secret at a remote airfield such as Dingxin. They didn't as Chengdu was used for the building and much of the test flying. The images and eyewitness sightings were coming out from the perimeter of Chengdu all the way through until official state confirmation in 2006. During this process the Chinese Government or state controlled media didn't acknowledge anything by the J-10 name even though all these images and eyewitness reports were coming out. It took until 2006 for the J-10 to be officially released on state TV.

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news.xinhuanet.com...

If they had been able to hide it then images such as the early prototypes and pre-production aircraft wouldn't have surfaced from Chengdu.

www.milavia.net...





Back during the early 00s the aviation forum boards were busily digesting the J-10 images. Note even then some were unconvinced, just like the J-20 today, with cries of Photoshop/fake.

Aviation enthusiast forum posts from 2001 and 2002

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TJ

reply to post by tommyjo


I find it sad that you continue being so petty as if you were trying to prove something.
I find it amazing as well how you can continue to try and provoke me, when I've conceded that I may have been wrong, yet an active moderator in this thread is oblivious to your continued provocative activities. Truly astounding, especially when said moderator removes my post for it being "ill mannered". Well, Advisor, how about you take some preventative action against tommyjo?


Oh, and btw, tommyjo, when there's a video of this alleged J20 actually taking off, flying, and landing, I'll be impressed, as will the rest of the world. It will be just as impressive to see some details on specifications, like the F22, or PAK-FA.

Of course, we all know that even if/when China comes out with some details, they will probably be fake, and a huge over estimation of this aircrafts capabilities.

I do wonder though, will it come with the original Mig engines where this "J20" was copied from, or will it come with the Chinese rip-off copies of some other countries engineering work, or maybe the Chinese will really surprise us all for a change, and release their own? Who knows.

But a few images, and a video of it rolling on the ground, aren't really impressive.
Especially considering all the military secrets that have allegedly been sold to China, you would think they would have something flying already and is second only to the F22.
But hey, I guess copy pasting is easier.

Could it have been build same way as X-32 fighter.
www.youtube.com...

J-20's wing placement looks difrent when compared to other deltas like Gripen and Rafale. Is it possible that they could build whole wing (X-32 way) and then attached it to the fuselage?

Originally posted by tommyjo
reply to post by Daedalus3

 

It was information based on the following.

It is confirmed that Chengdu air space will be closed from 1300-1500 Local (0500-0800 UTC)

forum.keypublishing.com...

You don't issue a NOTAM, close the nearby International Airport, and launch a J-10/J-11 on patrol for nothing. Not to mention flying in VIPs on Government Boeing 737s. According to the Chinese forums the VIP Boeing 737s left long after the NOTAM ended. If it was in force just to protect the VIPs then it would have been extended accordingly.

*PLAAF 33th Air Division just launched J-10 and J-11 fighters from Chongqing to clear the air space above and near Chengdu. *Chengdu Shuangliu International airport (CTU) shut down 13:00 to 15:00 local time.

forum.keypublishing.com...

And your point being? Irrefutable evidence of first flight preparations? Baah.. Besides.. you're just regurgitating speculation sprouting elsewhere. No need to prove that.
Well its all speculation really. Until we see some flight.

You also don't set up a TV camera on the far side of the airfield to record nothing. The info was being relayed from spectators at the perimeter of the airfield.
The official camera guy (in the picture I posted two pages ago) stationed at end of the runway, is walking slowly to his pre-setup video tripod.

forum.keypublishing.com...

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Security were also moving people on and making broadcast to them over the public announcement systems set up.

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Again.. all irrefutable evidence of an impending first flight? Are you kidding me? Now really..

This process will likely be repeated next week if the weather is more favourable? Even the fence watchers at Chengdu on Friday were reporting that theweather wasn't the best.

You are failing to understand that this is nothing new at Chengdu. I would go with your 'Unless number 1' theory. The Chinese are confident that they can pull off a first flight in front of VIPs and spectator alike.

I know you would go with that. Even though it seems the least probable from any point of view, Chinese or otherwise. But lets wait for the coming week.

People outside Chengdu were taking images of J-10 and J-11 and other newly developed aircraft dating all the way back to the late 1990s. The prototype J-10 images taxiing and flying were filmed by spectators outside Chengdu. Airfield is on the edge of a city with a population of 5 million.

Yeah but did we see any of those pictures as a part of a ever so obvious state sponsored leak BEFORE the J-10 became airborne and even airworthy for the first time? Was Chinese control on internet media as overwhelming then as it is now?

Yes the Chinese if they wanted to could build them at Chengdu and ship them out to places in the desert such as Dingxin. They don't. They build them at Chengdu and prototype test fly them at that base. It is no different to what they have done in the past with all their other newly developed aircraft. Even back in the J-10 days people outside the perimeter were reporting J-10 first flight in front of VIPs on the airfield.

Many of the better quality images of the J-10 and other aircraft on test were taken during the landing and take off phase with good quality DSLR and telephoto lens away from the immediate perimeter fence and security. There are no photography signs all round the base, but the security tend to tolerate small cameras and camera phones. It is reported on the Chinese forums that they crack down hard on DSLRs with large telephoto lenses on the perimeter with people reportedly having them confiscated.

Again.. when did we start seeing the pictures? You're missing my point. Unless you are trying to say that footage of the J-10 in taxi tests BEFORE first flight were released on the web and other forms of open worldwide media BEFORE the J-10 flew for the first time. And if you are trying to say it, and seem to have decent knowledge of it,then it shouldn't be too hard to dig up. Be my guest.

Things have changed in China. It took them some 7 years to officially announce the J-10. With this new aircraft (J-20) they even allowed the Deputy Air Force Commander to talk on state controlled TV during 2009 of the intentions to test fly and develop this aircraft. This would have been unheard of some ten years ago.

They "allowed" him? You make it sound like he was very eager to announce it to the world but was anxious to be permitted to do so
He announced it because it was intended to be announced in 2009.
Most probably because the T-50 had flown earlier on in the year thus establishing that T-50 was a reality and also establishing the reality that it was intended for international sale and co-operative development.
Eyes most obviously turned to the whereabouts of China's program, which was for all generic purposes supposedly in a parallel design and development schedule with the T-50.

So, in summary I see nothing out of the ordinary here and they are confident of a test flight from Chengdu. The process, as seen on Friday, will likely be exactly the same next week at Chengdu if the forecast is better.

Well good for them if they are. You sure seem to be, and apparently based (solely) on confidence radiated out from blogs and discussion fora that you have strolled through. l
Lets wait for that test flight, next week as you say.

I just find it extremely out of the ordinary to showcase a high value asset like this BEFORE it has even flown. Its just not normal process. Nothing to do with the Chinese (Even though Shenzhou was treated the way it was). Its been that way elsewhere as well.

One last thought. Was the weather pathetic on the 8th? The 9th too? Today's the 10th.. If everything was to climax in a first flight, and weather was the only one to play spoilsport, wouldn't it seem logical to fly asap? Like as soon as the weather was favorable? Why wind down the logistical paraphernalia and then start it up again next week? So do we wait for next Thursday? Or Friday? Just my thoughts..

Ok before this degrades to another bickering contest.

1) TJ: Apologies if anything sounded personal and/or offensive in the post above. You seem to be doing a decent job of collecting info off the plethora of readily available sites filling up with info on the J-20, consolidating it and presenting it to the uninitiated and the ones without the time to do the same. Please continue to do so.

2) I am just offering a point of view based on what I have seen here and in other situations of high value asset showcasing vis-a-vis any country (and China ever so more as it is known to be a secretive state). I have not taken a side, and am just presenting the options and what I think of them. I also think the aircraft may have flown in secret elsewhere or is not intended to fly in the near future. I do not think any sane establishment that prides itself on a flawless display (the CCP included) would risk a first flight in such public glare and scrutiny.
Having said that, let see what happens, If the first flight happens and is very restrictive (no complex manuevering) then perhaps it is indeed a first flight of sorts. But if we see a first flight video very soon, with high AoA turns, pitching, rolling, banking etc.. I would wager that this would not be its first flight.
Lets wait and watch.

3) As far as I can find (based on my limited searching) the J-10 first flew (successfully) on 23 Nov 1998 (jczs.news.sina.com.cn...). And it apparently 'rolled out' first on 1997. Now whether that roll-out constitutes what we saw a few days back or not, I don't know.

If you could show me images and/or videos of the J-10 popping up on dates before this time, you would have a valid argument. Its difficult to find ANYTHING on the internet pre-turn of the millennium so I don't know how successful you will be. But I think you get my point nonetheless.

More over there are reports that the prototype first flew in 1996, but the project suffered a serious setback in late 1997 when the 02 prototype lost control and crashed, as the result of certain system failure, presumably with either the FBW system or the engine. There have been numerous reports of J-10 crashes the last decade and the furious cover ups that have followed. All easily available info on the web. All leading me to believe that a sudden change in attitude and confidence with the CCP is not really on the cards. Not when they've spent the last 10 years covering things up.
This thing has mostly either flown already or will not fly for sometime.
(Source: www.defpro.com...)

Another article:
www.flightglobal.com...

Youtube has a lot of J-20 J10 J15 Su 27 -35 jet fighter videos to many to list, also is the 4th 5th generation videos PAK Su J20 Su 30 Su27, you get the idea have fun watching some look to good to be real.

personal i think the photo's were let out to the west, the reason, to in stall fear, shock and wonder.

Do they or do they not, if they do what does it mean to our defense and how did they get this far advanced 5-6 years ahead of technological capabilities, that sort of thing.Seems to be working, i for one can see the writing on the wall,and it don't look good.

Only Mr gates can decide were we, the west, will stand or if we fall, and if they China can get the bugs out, for they want to show us the west what this Bird J20 can do... show offs.

Here's a good article by the guys at AusAirPower.net (kudos to member Vitchilo for this, who posted it in his North Korea thread). It's a pretty good read and is generally right about assessing the J-20 as a long-range fighter that can cover most of Asia and even target US bases at Okinawa and Guam. It also goes on to explain how the J-20 will be produced around 2015, before the F-35 and how it also does not feature a lot of the design flaws that the F-35 has.

On top of all this, the report theorizes that the J-20 will be a more effective anti-carrier weapon than ballistic missiles like the DF-21.

Strategic Impact of the J-20

reply to post by Dimitri Dzengalshlevi


Yea.. the more I read this guy's stuff from ausairpower, the more I seem to dislike it. The guy has just thrown info that can be attributed to any fighter bomber stealth a/c. He has barely spent time looking at the a/c and its unique features. Has raise no questions, only conclusions .. that too in a preliminary analysis.

The following what kills it for me:

The US Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is outclassed in every respect, and would be as ineffective against a mature J-XX [J-20] as it is against the F-22A Raptor.
....
All US Air Force, US Navy and allied legacy fighters are outclassed in much the same manner, and are ineffective kinematically and in sensor capability against this class of threat system.

Jee whiz.. you think? Wouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out now would it.
Also on the other hand,the generalization made above here w/o attention to detail, e.g.: why 4+ gen a/c (specifically with advanced EW and radar systems) would fail completely against such a platform is irritating. NO mention of potential (and quite probable) engine and EW/radar suite complications this platform may face; complications that could drastically alter the operational envelope and corresponding deployment time-frame/geography of the aircraft.

All variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter would be equally so outclassed, assuming this failed project even progresses to any kind of actual production.

Outclassed in what sense? Not able to detect it and provide effective air defence against it? Or not able to stand up to it a2a combat at BVR or WVR ranges?

reply to post by anon72


Does it matter that China has such a plane?

China now has one or two aircraft carriers...a weapon that just came into the battle scene about 60 years ago.

But seriously, fighter planes are obsolete...drones are the only weapon of choice by the elite as the pilot is less prone to "doing his/her own thing" and is likely to be out of control when the truth comes out about space junk and stuff...

Besides, China will protect their interests in So.Africa mineral resources as this sort of thing (minerals-NOT people) is the real value of the earth to the elite rulers and their minions. In any event, such a fighter is basically worthless without a valid weapons system.

IMHO I dont care whether China has such aircraft or not...I'll bet my american drone against any fighter on any given sunday.

Originally posted by warset
someone did a face comparison:

Is it just me or does the right vertical stabilizer on both the J-20 and T-50 in this image look to be angled higher than the left?

Good for them.
Now they're only 30-40 years behind the US in aviation.
China just wants to beef up their military....there is no war coming. And if there was, they'd lose.

Originally posted by EdWard54
IMHO I dont care whether China has such aircraft or not...I'll bet my american drone against any fighter on any given sunday.

Because an unmanned, remote-controlled toy can outperform a piloted fighter, right? What a load

Here's an American-made drone in a dog fight with a MiG-29 over Georgia. Guess who wins

Originally posted by Dimitri Dzengalshlevi
Here's an American-made drone in a dog fight with a MiG-29 over Georgia. Guess who wins

Yeah, because that drone was a really wily opponent for that MiG-29.

Be aware that there is a fan art image being presented on the web as a 'proof of flight' image.

img.cjdby.com...

The art was created by well known CGI artist Gao Shan. It was subsequently ripped off by another person, photoshopped and posted as real.

Photoshopped image as presented.

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See explanation.

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TJ

reply to post by Daedalus3


Hi Daedalus3,

No problem. No need to apologise, but thank you. Thanks for the replies and your thoughts. No offence taken.



TJ

Originally posted by jerico65

Originally posted by Dimitri Dzengalshlevi
Here's an American-made drone in a dog fight with a MiG-29 over Georgia. Guess who wins

Yeah, because that drone was a really wily opponent for that MiG-29.

My point exactly

Please show me a working, production drone that can engage in combat with a 3rd generation fighter, let alone 4th or 5th. American ambitions for drone capabilities are far from the reality. They will not replace combat pilots. At best, in the next 30 years and for the 6th fighter generation, drones will act as escort support for fighters.

reply to post by Dimitri Dzengalshlevi

Here's a good article by the guys at AusAirPower.net (kudos to member Vitchilo for this, who posted it in his North Korea thread). It's a pretty good read and is generally right about assessing the J-20 as a long-range fighter that can cover most of Asia and even target US bases at Okinawa and Guam. It also goes on to explain how the J-20 will be produced around 2015, before the F-35 and how it also does not feature a lot of the design flaws that the F-35 has.

A hell of a lot of conclusions about an aircraft that has yet to fly, let-alone go feet-wet and successfully deploy a weapon.

As much as I criticize our own fighter development processes and dog Lockheed-Martin for failing chemistry and corrosion control courses in designing the F-22; those aircraft are in the air and in serviceable numbers.

As for the JSF - it never was intended to be an air superiority design. I think it's a rather shoddy design philosophy, and we should have taken the concept up a notch to a larger airframe, similar to the F/B-111. However, trying to compare a strike aircraft to an air superiority fighter is like trying to compare a cargo aircraft to a strategic bomber.

The J-20 is, obviously, not an air-superiority design. Comparing it to the F-18 and the F-35 is more appropriate - but you're looking at a multi-spectral comparison. The radars on an F-18 stop just short of being able to conduct an MRI on you - they can do everything from advanced search and track functions to electronic warfare. The F-18 can carry a wide range of munitions and has a practical loiter time.

In that sense, the Chinese have a rather steep contrast to try and overcome. The airframe may be somewhat LO - but that doesn't make a fifth-generation fighter.

By that same token, comparing the J-20 to an F-15 is like comparing an F-35 or F-18 to an F-15. The J-20 is going to use its design features to avoid conflict with the F-15, not engage it.

On top of all this, the report theorizes that the J-20 will be a more effective anti-carrier weapon than ballistic missiles like the DF-21.

I don't really see this being aimed at the naval role, in any sense. Anti-ship weapons tend to be rather large. You would need to mount them externally or have a massive internal bay to keep them - one larger than this aircraft has to offer. Unless you plan to bomb the ship - which is not all that bad of an idea, but China is still a long way away from having precision guided bombs that could successfully hit a moving target, such as a ship. It seems an unnecessary risk for the airframe.

Now, China could develop a new anti-ship missile with a shorter range - but this makes very little sense, as their existing airframes can launch existing weapons from stand-off ranges (as they were designed).

This is most likely intended to strike land-based targets with a high threat level with a higher probability of survival - just like the JSF and B-2. Sure - the JSF can mount anti-ship missiles, but that kind of throws your LO out the window - using an F-18 for the sortie makes far more sense as you can carry a larger payload further and use your JSF for something a little more fitting, or not at all.

Please show me a working, production drone that can engage in combat with a 3rd generation fighter, let alone 4th or 5th. American ambitions for drone capabilities are far from the reality. They will not replace combat pilots. At best, in the next 30 years and for the 6th fighter generation, drones will act as escort support for fighters.

The problem with your request is that a lot of drone aircraft under development are classified, and many of the results of testing are also classified.

There are several things going for drone aircraft. First - it doesn't matter if they are 'better' or 'worse' than a pilot. What matters is that we can crank them out faster than we can make babies and train pilots while killing your pilots. Drones are a frightening concept when it comes to attrition, as it makes the notion of attrition warfare quite acceptable to those with drone capability.

Second, the G-tolerances of drones can be far greater than manned aircraft for a number of reasons - the entire structure can be revised to not have to utilize a cabin and life support systems. Biological factors (such as blackout) are also not an issue. You can have a substantially lighter and 'tighter' airframe with heightened maneuverability.

Third, the reaction times of a drone can be far faster than those for a human. Many of the processes in aircraft are already being automated - particularly in the world of electronic warfare, where human response is simply too slow to be effective. A drone can react to a missile launch and/or many other events as quickly as it is capable of processing the information, which is often far faster than a human can become aware that anything has changed.

Fourth, simultaneous awareness. Many of the autonomous designs being developed today are stepping away from single-processor controlled units and going towards processor/program networks tasked with their own systems. These programs can then be said to be fully aware of the entire air-frame and environment around it and programmed to respond to developments in either. This means that attention will never be 'divided' amongst different tasks that would normally be carried out by a pilot - all can be carried out simultaneously.

Now - not all of these are exclusive to drones. However - even a drone that does nothing but fly in circles and launch missiles at anything failing to respond correctly to IFF is a threat that needs to be considered. Again - it doesn't matter if it is better than the pilot, or not. That is like saying missiles are no-good because they are not better than the pilot. Doesn't matter when they kill the pilot and the horse he rode in on.

reply to post by Aim64C


Personally, I think you've completely underestimated Chinese ability and intentions with this new J-20.

Secondly, I already know all of that drone stuff that you wrote, and I still fail to see how drones have superior abilities than actual, piloted aircraft. Drones are drones, that's all that they are. They don't have emotions or instincts, and some drone operator sitting safely in a bunker watching a TV screen isn't going to experience anything close to the abilities of a combat pilot engaging in combat.

And obviously a lot of drones are classified. I still have yet to see a single drone design, classified or not, that has the ability to match a fighter. They are all designed for recon or tactical strikes. Are there even any drones currently equipped with air-to-air missiles?