Futurology: The tricky art of knowing what will happen next

A 1972 book which predicts what life would be like in 2010 has been reprinted after attracting a cult following, but how hard is it to tell the future? Geoffrey Hoyle is often asked why he predicted everybody would be wearing jumpsuits by 2010. He envisioned a world where everybody worked a three-day week and had their electric cars delivered in tubes of liquid. These colourful ideas from his 1972 children's book, 2010: Living in the Future, helped prompt a Facebook campaign to track him down. His work has now been reprinted with the year in the title amended to 2011.

bbc

This source article talks about a book that is being reprinted that was predicting the future after almost 40 years. No surprise you might find it some what amusing. But the article does go on to talk about some other science fiction authors who did make some predictions that do have a remarkable resemblance to what did come to be. If you would like to make a prediction of your own please do so.

I could make about three thousand posts on this thread...but will sit back and see how it develops first..

however, if you want to truely start your journey down futurist predictions, I suggest studying Kurzweil.


The guy has some solid backing to him considering he is not just theorizing about things, but actually working towards it.

reply to post by SaturnFX


Saturn
three thousand posts, wow that is a lot!
But all the same thanks for posting and for the video, I will start watching it later on today.

There are a few problems that future predictions fall into

-Many are short sighted. This is the most common problem..they (will use they broadly to describe the mindset) believe that little will change beyond today except maybe one or two technologies. Most of todays sci-fi is based around this concept actually where no matter how far ahead they look, they can only see one or two major overhauls.

Star Trek is a perfect example of exceptional short sightedness. They have a teleporter which deconstructs matter down to the atomic level, then reconstructs it...yet the people in the star trek universe still show signs of age, get diseases, viruses, cancers, etc...
Because out of the hundreds of billions of people living then, not a single one of them have considered simply removing the cancer cells, or virus's from the transportation method. It is mind boggling oversight. If such tech exists, not only could the technology remove any and all diseases and issues with the human body, but it could also recreate anything

Again with star trek (they are my favorite beating stick) they have matter replicators, which works on the same principles as the teleporter...basically just a reconstruction of whatever it is from the elemental level. Yet, for some reason, they are always running short of something, or need to get some new and unique element for payment (gold pressed latnum I guess is the hot commodity). short sightedness. Information is the only trade in such a time

-Next problem with futurologists are many simply being illogical. Typically advances are made through necessity. Why isn't there floating cities already? well, why the hell would there be? No major innovation was born out of pointlessness. The internet was to decentralize the government in case of atomic war is a perfect example. What would a floating city serve beyond being highly expensive and serves no real function..
GPS tech came for military applications and is now the hallmark of wireless connected devices. When considering the future, you got to think of what function it would at least initially serve for necessity sake. When considering that, then it becomes pretty easy to figure out which emerging technologies will advance rapidly, and which will just simmer in the background

Baby boomers getting older will fuel massive medical research and breakthroughs. baby boomer mass deaths will put the fear of our own mortality for surviving generations and fuel massive attempts at longevity out of sheer panic. People love being entertained and since video rendering on flatscreens is coming close to its peak, more investments in 3d technology, holographics, etc is the next logical step..expect some basic interactive holographics to be the next step in entertainment once everyone.

-Finally, if people aren't too short sighted, then they tend to overexaggerate without considering the human condition. A person brainwashed into thinking the entire world is a upper middle class society will see how a hovercar will be the most common car in 30 years. We may even have the tech to make one, however, the corporations that would consider making a line would quickly drop it considering very few would actually be able to purchase their massive R&D overhead and will just wait for someone else to do it. Of course, once one does it, then the rest will eventually fall in line.

So, here is the easiest prediction. the far east is pouring tons of governmental money in research and development. The west has all but stopped any progression. This will without a doubt make the future asian owned. They will be the ones that create the holographic technology and hold the pattents, They will be the ones that create matter replication first, and it will be the asian culture that becomes the world culture. But thats not so much a prediction anymore as a simple observation.

reply to post by SaturnFX


They guy in the video talks gobledegook. In the first few minutes he got elementary math wrong. 5 steps + 30 steps does not = 30 steps. Then I realized he was just making numbers up but talking as if it was factual. People who make stuff up off the top of their head and then try and present it as fact are not terribly bright. I've never heard so much nonesense uttered in the first 5 minutes of an hour long documentary in all my life. Couldn't watch anymore than 5 minutes.

reply to post by DanUKphd


LOL he did mess that 30+5 thing up

Here are a few predictions... and in true fashion I will make them as cryptic as one would expect...lol

1 On a day of great choice, An angel shall fall
2 la unión de la ilusión, llamada de la cortina
3 The eye of Horus shall scorch the Earth
4 Voi che colpisce in primo luogo, perde.

To be less cryptic...

2011...

With the "engineered" allowance of "more" social freedoms, TPTB will further implement their anti-American Campaign overseas. American's won't see this due to our media system being profoundly corrupted.

The name of the game is to persist the illusion for as long as they can.

By mid 2011, most Americans will realize that the Great War has been under way for decades.

Q: "What happens when a Car that is being driven... becomes aware of itself... and chooses not to function?"
A: "Watch out for that ditch?"

Media buzzwords and phrases you will hear in 2011...

"Lifting of the Vail"
Liquefaction
Red Queen - "Off with their heads"
Student Stand down
Rick Perry
Tea Party
Elohim
Lady GaGa (very disturbing!... not her... but what happens)
ASTRAIOS (tickets anyone?)
A New Age of Reason (this is BS, btw)

2011: Technology

3D iPad
Solar Voltaic 3.0
Self tinting windows (VOLVO) - broader commercial use
New "Battery" based on Capacitance, will cause a revival in our fascination with electricity

Random comments about next year

Stop using the term... awake! Trust me... chances are... you're not.

Don't believe Rick Perry or ANYONE he is associated with... Period!

The Tea Party is NOT worth investing your heart in.

And lastly.... in a world of absolute potential... are there such things as "wrong" assumptions?

1TG,
R.

Ps. Believe what you want... in the end, you will be vindicated.

reply to post by RedGolem


them major problem with futrology is that the hand full of " correct " predictions are hailed as genius while the thousands that are incorect are quietly ignored

reply to post by ignorant_ape


One thing to point out about the functions of time. (and in an round about way... the concept of predicting the future)

• Current physicists believe that Space-Time and its reciprocal, are fractal in nature.
• The Mayan's [and many other Ancient Cultures] believed that "Time" is a repetitive pattern of occurrence.

Are these not the same assumption?

Everyone, thanks for all your posts and comments.
I am aware that the few one might get right is minuscule to all those that are wrong. But still it is interesting.

Originally posted by DanUKphd
reply to post by SaturnFX

 

They guy in the video talks gobledegook. In the first few minutes he got elementary math wrong. 5 steps + 30 steps does not = 30 steps.

Hmm, he made a mistake? go figure...and here I thought he was a robot incapable of letting trivial things slip

Then I realized he was just making numbers up but talking as if it was factual. People who make stuff up off the top of their head and then try and present it as fact are not terribly bright.

And here we go...ready:
Raymond "Ray" Kurzweil born February 12, 1948
-In 1963, at age fifteen, he wrote his first computer program.[2] Later in high school he created a sophisticated pattern-recognition software program that analyzed the works of classical composers, and then synthesized its own songs in similar styles

-In 1968, during his sophomore year at MIT, Kurzweil started a company that used a computer program to match high school students with colleges. The program, called the Select College Consulting Program, was designed by him and compared thousands of different criteria about each college with questionnaire answers submitted by each student applicant. When he was 20, he sold the company to Harcourt, Brace & World for $100,000 (roughly $500,000 in 2006 dollars) plus royalties.[5] He earned a BS in Computer Science and Literature in 1970 from MIT.

-In 1974, Kurzweil started the company Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc. and led development of the first omni-font optical character recognition system

-His company under his direction created the CCD flatbed scanner and the text-to-speech synthesizer.

-He created electronic musical instraments (perhaps you heard of kurzweil in regards to synthesizers and various other musical equiptment)

-He wrote a book long before the internet discussing the internet and more importantly, embedded linking within links...he was thought to be a quack for such a prediction

-Kurzweil created the company Kurzweil Applied Intelligence (KAI) to develop computer speech recognition systems for commercial use.

-Kurzweil started Kurzweil Educational Systems in 1996 to develop new pattern-recognition-based computer technologies to help people with disabilities such as blindness, dyslexia and ADD in school.

-During the 1990s Kurzweil founded the Medical Learning Company.[7] The company's products included an interactive computer education program for doctors and a computer-simulated patient. Around the same time, Kurzweil started KurzweilCyberArt.com—a website featuring computer programs to assist the creative art process.

-In 1999, Kurzweil created a hedge fund called "FatKat" (Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies), which began trading in 2006. He has stated that the ultimate aim is to improve the performance of FatKat's A.I. investment software program, enhancing its ability to recognize patterns in "currency fluctuations and stock-ownership trends

-In June 2005, Kurzweil introduced the "Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader" (K-NFB Reader)—a pocket-sized device consisting of a digital camera and computer unit. Like the Kurzweil Reading Machine of almost 30 years before, the K-NFB Reader is designed to aid blind people by reading written text aloud.

-A movie is in the works for just his book about the coming singularity called The Singularity is Near: A True Story About the Future based, in part, on his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near. Part fiction, part non-fiction, he interviews 20 big thinkers like Marvin Minsky, (plus there is a B-line narrative story that illustrates some of the ideas about artificial intelligence saving the world)


Ya...the guy isn't bright, except for advancing our technology dramatically..I am sure your list to date is far better...I mean, other than simply being a judgemental internet troll laughing at their intellectual superiors for making a single mistake.

So go on then, list your accomplishments

I've never heard so much nonesense uttered in the first 5 minutes of an hour long documentary in all my life. Couldn't watch anymore than 5 minutes.

Well, 5 minutes and a mistake will certainly make you an expert...still waiting on your list of inventions that have reformed the world as we know it.

Helps if you know what happened in the past. Still tricky though as everything has an input and could go anyway.

Prediction is for the blind...creation is for those who have "true" vision of what the future "can be"!

Is this mans "prediction" of the future any less real than what could be today?

NO - his prediction fell short because he was unable to be the "creator" of the vision he saw!

This period of time is nothing more but the "creation" of those who have the control/power to put forth their own "lesser" ideas of what the future can be!

How different the future of "this planet" will be when we once again start looking into what we can "create" outside of what we can "take"...

Like light without heat?

Originally posted by Areveli
Like light without heat?

Phosphorus

erm...whatcha talking about?

This is an interesting thread, I read somewhere that most or all of the major corporations consult "Futurists" on a regular basis, some may be on the payroll.

These Futurists don't predict the future, but rather they watch trends, technology developements and a host of other things to steer these companys in the most likely direction to success.

Here is one that I found just surfing the Net one day. www.arlingtoninstitute.org...

Enjoy

reply to post by Areveli
Areveli,

To your statement - "By mid 2011, most Americans will realize that the Great War has been under way for decades."

I would just add and we have lost already and TPTB will use any means they have to, to stop an uprising that would endanger their course. They are in control of all the power and money etc.They are ruling as kings over all the earth.

Truthiron.

reply to post by truthiron


Depends on which State you live in. Trends are pointing to Texas being one of the first.

When it goes black [in regards to the exchange of information] most will have no clue what is taking place outside their "little bubble." Remember, we are in a chess game and they are thinking several moves ahead.

If they can't pass the Comcast / GE / NBC merger... then they will move on to phase2. EMP... they already have the "living script" to pull and use as a cover.

Solar flares.

Having said that, they [TPTB] are in no hurry to "do" anything. The chess board has been set. They are waiting on the citizens to play their part and strike first.

reply to post by Areveli
Areveli,

Our opinions on these things are not popular for sure. They do have a timetable set and will spring it in a very short time when they do. I don't think one state is far behind another. Ohio is in trouble and but few are stable financially.

We are close to the "tipping" point I do believe but how quick they will tip it I can not predict.

Tough times have come to millions already. My son in law is a journeyman cabinet maker, one of the very best, and there is no work for him and I doubt if there is light at the end of that tunnel.

Hey I like that Texe Marrs there out of Texas.

The best to you.

Truthiron.

reply to post by truthiron


I agree, America is in distress. However, I must point out that American's do have defenses in place. There are people throughout every industry and institution [in our country and abroad]; that are very aware of what is taking place. While I don't know the specifics... I do have faith that the meek shall prevail.

If I could impart one sliver of wisdom... it is that the war we face now is not one of bombs and bullets. It is a war of words and opinions.

With regard to Social and Government Issues:
Every "Talking Point" you hear on the radio or see on the news, has been engineered [either before or after the fact] to "shape" the listeners "understanding" of the topic at hand. The end objective is simply to divide opinions and set the stage for further arguing. This is why we have different "slants" on the news.

Let's take National Public Radio as an example. Listen to the way their anchors use leading statements and questions. They will no doubt always be "slanted" in a way that casts Liberal causes in a "good" light. Whereas Fox News... will support the Conservative "slant."

You have to keep in mind EVERY opinion you or I hold, has been given to us via someone else. No one is a master of independent thought... even individuals with opinions as "radical" as ours... base their opinions on content they have read, seen, and/or heard.

Sadly, I feel people are grossly underestimating the minds ability to be manipulated.
[If you disagree... please enlighten me.]

On a side note: I hate to hear about your Son-In-Law, I know way too many people in the same situation. Hopefully, the tides will turn in our favor.. and we can pass the Fair Tax.

[IMHO, this is the only option that we have that will generate the revenue we need to get out of this mess.]

Warm Regards,
R.