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Expected Kerry Bounce
TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP
FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST
RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE
As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.
An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.