Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by PuterMan

Nice. Mate I really don't want to argue with you. What I was saying was that on the maps that are on USGS to show quakes in (near) real time -- including the ten-degree maps for Japan like this one -- the line running up through Japan is not shown. I am aware of Google Earth and its data that comes from USGS but that's not what I was talking about. I'm only discussing the fact that on the maps most people will use for the more up-to-date reports from USGS, that detail is not shown. It beats me why they don't just have it there. The "Asia Region" map doesn't show it either.

I'm not accusing the USGS of trying to hide anything. I just wish tye'd show those details all in one place. It's not hard.

Best regards and no offence intended,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Calm down Mike, maybe I should have added as well as

I was returning the that you gave!!!

Not taking offence at all, just pointing out that I had shown the triple junction and that the info was provided by USGS.

Edit: Ah that map. I never ever look at those. I use my program and Google Earth to locate stuff.

reply to post by PuterMan

Sorry, mate. I am so nervous at the moment and it's a horrible feeling. To be honest I woke up this morning expecting something significant on land on Honshu today. Just wish I'd been wrong in that.

I was also very annoyed with myself for missing the fact that GEE was clearly showing the traces of two different events. I should have picked up on that right away but somehow I missed it. I was considering that both showed the one but the latter seismo was closer to the event (as it was tracing in mm/sec), making me suspect the event was on or near to the fault running N/S (ish) through Honshu.

Anyway, down to brass tacks...

That latest on-land quake is very close to Fuji-san. Do we have any links handy for seismos that monitor the Honorable Mountain? Also, what is the likely direction of movement if there is a major quake on that fault that goes up through the island of Honshu? Is it the eastern half moves north and the western half goes south, or the other way round? And finally, how would such movement there affect the offshore subduction boundary?

I really need to study more about this, so please forgive the questions is they are too naiive.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


If you look at my map you will see that IU.MAJO is the closest. Not exactly right on it but as good as we can get from available seismos. G.INU is also quite close. Only just off the map shown.

I will edit this post in a minute to give you details of the live seismos KML

Also, what is the likely direction of movement if there is a major quake on that fault that goes up through the island of Honshu? Is it the eastern half moves north and the western half goes south, or the other way round? And finally, how would such movement there affect the offshore subduction boundary?

I really need to study more about this, so please forgive the questions is they are too naiive.

Mm, you and me both! I mean 2 triple junctions right next to each other?? Theoretically Japan should go upwards!


It is quite a pain trying to get the station locations of the _REALTIME virtual network for Google Earth so I have uploaded the file.

_REALTIME.kml

Please be aware that these DO change from time to time. Annoyingly, good stations get taken off and others get put on. I try to keep that file up to date so you could take a look from time to time to see if it has changed.

Anyway - very handy for locating the closest station to an area that has public access.

reply to post by PuterMan


Hi all, Now its 12:53am here in innisfail, queensland, as you are aware we had a 4.0 magnitude earthquake today, And as I was sitting at my computer watching the series deadwood, I notice a very strange color in the sky, almost like an orange type color glowing through the clouds, as it has been raining again tonight, I just thought it was weird as I have never seen anything like, almost as if the sun was coming up, but from the S/E I tried to get a picture of it, but stupid crappy mobile phone did take a very good shot. Something is not right guys and girls, Very unusual to see the sky lit up like that. I hope the rest of the world stays safe, and wish you all well. Take care all of you please.

MP

It is now 1:02, and has just faded away? Hope thats a good sign

MP

reply to post by MrPhilosophy

almost like an orange type color glowing through the clouds

I am not sure that a 4.0 quake would be sufficiently powerful to create the electro-magnetic effects for that BUTm last night I commented to my other half that the moon had an orange tinge to it. It was also very bright so maybe......??

oops, two for the price of one!!

reply to post by PuterMan


Ye it would'nt have bothered me, only thing is the moon is on the N/W side of us, and I can not see it, cause heavy cloud cover.

EDIT: oh, And i hope your right about the electro storm

reply to post by OneisOne

Thank you! I only had the Japanese version (which is still excellent) but having the English version as well is a huge plus! I am now running both.

Just a note: in a press conference by JMA, the quake near Shizuoka has now apparently been upgraded to a 6.4, according to TV reports on NHK.


Also from this press conference, there is no current data showing an increase in volcanic activity at nearby Mt Fuji.
The expert (Mr Hirofumi Yokoyama, pictured) also says that he cannot state there is any connection between this Tokai region quake and the huge Friday quake.

ETA: Quake occurred approx 5 km from Mt Fuji. Also, the first automatic warning was sent out (to TV stations etc) 3.5 seconds after the quake. (Yes, three and a half seconds.) This gave people who were not so close to the epicentre a few seconds to react. This kind of fast warning system clearly could be instrumenal in saving lives.

My comment on this is that while there might not be any demonstrable connection, if it's an "isolated" event it's a heck of a coincidence.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Still a 6.0 according to the local Japanese listings

Issued at Occurred at Region Name Magnitude Maximum Seismic Intensity
(JMA Seismic Intensity)
23:34 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:31 JST 15 Mar 2011 Shizuoka-ken Tobu M6.0 6+
22:59 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:56 JST 15 Mar 2011 Yamanashi-ken Tobu-Fujigoko M2.7 1
22:55 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:52 JST 15 Mar 2011 Yamanashi-ken Tobu-Fujigoko M2.8 1
22:53 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:49 JST 15 Mar 2011 Yamanashi-ken Tobu-Fujigoko M2.9 2

reply to post by PuterMan

Thanks for the reply. Yes, I am still trying to puzzle out what would move where. In any case, I don't like the fact that if we "connect the dots" of the recent quakes from Shinuzoka up past Nagano and to the one off the coast on the west side of Honshu, it closely follows that plate boundary.

Something that is so remarkable about all this is that in many places, a mag 6-plus quake would be a major event on its own (as was the tragic 6.3 in Christchurch last month). But in Japan, while it's clearly of concern, it's something they are not unused to from their long history of living there and dealing with these events.

Mike

reply to post by PuterMan

Yes. I have noticed before that the media there often get the data of upgrades/downgrades very rapidly, before the JMA and others actually manually change their listings. However, as they have just covered a news conference with an expert from JMA, who announced the upgrade himself, I expect it will eventualy make it onto the online lists.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


USGS Phase Data

15 MAR 2011 ( 74)

ot = 13:31:46.04 +/- 1.44 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
lat = 35.322 +/- 6.9
lon = 138.552 +/- 8.0 MAGNITUDE 6.1 (GS)
dep = 1.0 +/- 3.2

35 km (25 miles) S of Kofu, Honshu, Japan (pop 194,000)
40 km (25 miles) NW of Numazu, Honshu, Japan (pop 208,000)
40 km (25 miles) NNE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan (pop 713,000)
115 km (70 miles) WSW of TOKYO, Japan (pop 8,489,000)

nph = 336 of 349 se = 0.71 FE=227 A

error ellipse = (252.0, 0.0, 12.4;162.0, 1.0, 10.3; 0.0, 88.0, 4.8)

mb = 6.2 (305) ML = 5.6 ( 12) mblg = 5.3 ( 5) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 5.8 ( 2)

neic.usgs.gov...

There are a few 6.4/6.5 in the list so may well be updated.

Edit:

Another just turned up
00:28 JST 16 Mar 2011 00:24 JST 16 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M6.0 3
23:34 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:31 JST 15 Mar 2011 Shizuoka-ken Tobu M6.0 6+

Offshore that one:
www.jma.go.jp...

Still waiting for USGS. That makes 2 x big at opposites ends of the current activity within 30 minutes of each other.



USGS in now
Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time

* Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 15:23:53 UTC
* Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 01:23:53 AM at epicenter

Location 40.404°N, 143.090°E
Depth 9 km (5.6 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

* 135 km (84 miles) E (94°) from Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
* 183 km (114 miles) ENE (65°) from Morioka, Honshu, Japan
* 206 km (128 miles) ESE (103°) from Aomori, Honshu, Japan
* 602 km (374 miles) NNE (28°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 0.2 km (0.1 miles)
Parameters NST=213, Nph=220, Dmin=179.2 km, Rmss=1.47 sec, Gp=108°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source

* U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc00023hu

reply to post by PuterMan

That mag 6.0 off shore to the north... They seem far less concerned about it than Shizuoka's mag 6.4 (JMA) / 6.1 (USGS and some others). I would assume it's because the offshore quake is really one of many in the series of aftershocks. It was assigned a shindo (shake) "3" value at the nearest coastal regions. On the other hand, the Shizuoka quake, being on land in a pretty heavily populated area, gives them cause to worry because of the "expected" Tokai region quake.

Mr Yokoyama from the JMA pointed out that this quake was some distance from where a huge "Tokai" quake is expected to occur sooner or later. Also -- and this is very useful knowledge -- he says that the latest quake's strain axis ran basically N/S, whereas the "Tokai" plate would have a strain axis E/W. In other words, it wasn't on the same fault boundary as the due-one-day Tokai megathrust event will be.

He also tells us that this was the strongest quake in that particular region in some years, but at the same time he says that it is not related to Friday's offshore megathrust event.

Note for members: I can't really link to these statements in text. These comments were made only a short while ago by Mr Yokyama in a press conference. This is now being replayed (and doubtless will be for hours) and you can watch it with English interpeting on NHK's English channel HERE.

EDIT: I see that USGS have now upgraded their figure for the Shizuoka quake from 6.1 to 6.2:
Magnitude 6.2 - EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
2011 March 15 13:31:46 UTC

Versión en Español

* Details
* Summary
* Maps
* Scientific & Technical
* Additional Info

Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time

* Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
* Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.300°N, 138.700°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 36 km (22 miles) S of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
37 km (22 miles) NW of Numazu, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) NNE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
116 km (72 miles) WSW of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.1 km (7.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=358, Nph=379, Dmin=135.8 km, Rmss=0.79 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=D
Source

* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc00023fx

Mike

I have a feeling that this latest quake (6.4) will wake up Mt. Fuji.. Good lord, if that happens, that is it.... I mean, what else can happen there? Everyone pray for calm for the island of Japan.

The People there are strong, and I sure feel for them.

reply to post by JustMike


Now 6.2 on USGS, but still 6.0 on JMA

6+ Intensity though

I see you beat me to it again!!



They have another page. It has been not been upgraded on that either.

Issued at Occurred at Region Name Magnitude
00:26 JST 16 Mar 2011 00:24 JST 16 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M6.0
22:35 JST 15 Mar 2011 22:31 JST 15 Mar 2011 Shizuoka-ken Tobu M6.0

reply to post by PuterMan

I think JMA's people are rather busy right now and have undoubtedly been working long hours for some days. This could explain why they are slow to manually update the public pages. However they have given the 6.4 figure to the media and would know that the media will release this information to the Japanese public immediately.

My feeling is that the Japanese media take their job of accurately reporting quake data very seriously indeed, and they only put up a graphic and then reported it as a 6.4 because the JMA authorities had given them this figure.

The other factor in all this is that USGS seems to be a law unto itself. Many times, I have seen USGS publish different values for magnitudes and/or depths for quakes that were at odds with other, often much more local authorities. Even with quakes in Iceland, where the local seismic experts are unquestionably very practiced and top class, USGS will give different details.

I understand that there is necessarily a degree of interpretation to arrive at magnitude and depth figures, and hence there will be variations in what the various agencies report. With this Shizuoka quake, at least the difference is not massive (and is getting closer), but it is still significant. But frankly, the Japanese surely know their jobs. They not only have the technical and human resources, they also have people on the ground in the affected area, and I am sure that they take into account damage and felt reports when they make their revisions. There is no way that the USGS can do a better job of this particular aspect than the Japanese who are right there.

That's why in this case I defer to the figure that Mr Yokoyama of the JMA announced at the press conference. Were it a quake in the US, I would likewise accept a figure from the USGS ahead of whatever was reported by any other agency (including the JMA).

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by Pharyax

I hate to say it, but this is still plenty that can happen there (in Japan). Fuji-san could be a problem, though early indications from JMA are that its volcanic activity has not changed. Not yet, I mean.

On the other hand, there is still a lot of possible seismic activity and in fact, what surprised them so much about Friday's quake is that it was not the "big one" they have been expecting -- the so-called "Tokai" event, which would be a megathrust quake. So, that danger still lurks, as does the possiblity of major activity along the fault/plate boundary that runs N/S through Honshu.

We can only hope (as the Japanese do) that these other events will not occur in the near future. I think if given the choice, they'd rather deal with the effects of a stratovolcano (Fuji) than another megathrust event. At least such volcanoes normally give people some time to pack up and get away. Megathrust quakes don't give that much time. We all saw what happened in the near-coastal regions of NE Honshu last Friday. Some people only had a few minutes' warning and this is one reason that so many were tragically lost.

Best regards,

MIke

Can I ask the experts please. What is this strange trace I am picking up in GEE?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e0327b2df021.jpg[/atsimg]

It looks like a row of springs. It is from station ll.ERM.00.BHN

Thank you