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Quake Watch 2011

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posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 11:59 AM
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I noticed that there is not one quake listed for PR for today on U.S.G.S!

Furthermore, someone listed a 5.1 in PR but now I can not find where I saw it


Whats up!




posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 11:59 AM
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Originally posted by radpetey
reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Hey Bro!

That quake in Haiti was a 7.0......just a hair of a difference


But whose splitting hairs!
Earthquakes usually have no pattern,there are very rare cases when you can find a pattern for a region,patterns can be found concerning the effects or as an analyse for long period of time for a specific region,but usually most active regions give the big ones or non active regions give the big one when you less expect to...so a destructive earthquake comes in 5,10,20 years although lately we have seven years between Sumatra and Japan EQ's and deadly tsunamis!Should we concern?Hard to say!...Predictability?There are some signs before in many cases but who will take it seriously!!



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 12:22 PM
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Okay, I've been using the search function for the past 30+ minutes and haven't found this article mentioned. If it is old news, I apologize sincerely.
It talks about recent intraplate earthquakes being aftershocks of the 1811-1812 New Madrid quakes. Huh?
Earthquakes actually aftershocks of 19th century quakes

If this is true, how long does it take for new stresses to start building on intraplate faults?



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 01:00 PM
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reply to post by Olivine
 



If this is true, how long does it take for new stresses to start building on intraplate faults?


Maybe never. There is a theory that the NMSZ quakes are residuals and no new stress is building which is based on the evidence from GPS of < 1mm a year movement.

The New Madrid Time Series can be viewed here.

I will see if I can find the paper on the theory. - Here you are - same site

If you download the full PDF from that page you will find in the conclusion:


4.2. Implications for earthquake recurrence

Based on our 0.7 mm yr−1 weighted RMS value for the residual velocities of the NMSZ sites, random deviations from a rigid plate model in the NMSZ region do not exceed 1.4 mm yr−1 at the 95% confidence level. We assume that this represents a conservative upper bound on the magnitude of any long-term slip in the study area.

Assuming a simple model where characteristic earthquakes repeat regularly on a given active fault – as is implicit in the U.S. earthquake hazard maps, for instance – our results imply a minimum repeat time of about 3,000 to 8,000 years for future magnitude 8 earthquakes with 5-10 m of coseismic slip



edit on 29/11/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

edit on 29/11/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 01:25 PM
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Oh - oh


5.2 2011/11/29 17:01:49 -54.496 158.123 6.8 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.3 2011/11/29 17:43:28 -4.417 102.081 47.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

similar sequence as prior to the 2004 Sumatra

8.2Me, 2004/12/23 14:59:4.4, -49.312, 161.345, 10, W of Auckland Islands, noaa
9.0Mw, 2004/12/26 0:58:53.4, 3.295, 95.982, 30, Simeulue, Indonesia, noaa

may be nothing to it though



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 01:51 PM
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reply to post by muzzy
 
I wonder of the depth that the foreshocks of the big quakes have maybe that could be a clue to find a hair in an ocean,just thinking but no statistics so far!



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 05:54 PM
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Note for the regs:

So sitting here enjoying the readouts in GEE from the new station in Vanuato, G.SANVU.
Yep they got it back up again, and already caught two smaller quakes in Vanuato today- ones we (the average public) would never otherwise know about.

I didn't take pics, but they happened.
And can pull data on SANVU to prove it if need be.

It's just nice to have another seismology station instead of another bomb.



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 06:22 PM
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reply to post by muzzy
 


What's this muzzy? Doom-mongering now? Oh dear!

Not quite sure that I see any similarity betwe 5.2/5.3 and 8.2/9.0. The latter seem just a tad larger I feel



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 06:48 PM
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This just in.

USGS

6.0 - LUZON, PHILIPPINES
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 00:27:08 UTC
Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 08:27:08 AM at epicenter
Location
15.467°N, 119.031°E
Depth
14.6 km (9.1 miles)
Region
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
Distances
153 km (95 miles) WNW (298°) from Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines
154 km (96 miles) WSW (245°) from Dagupan, Luzon, Philippines
167 km (104 miles) WNW (282°) from Angeles, Luzon, Philippines


EMSC revised from 5.8 to 6.1.

Edit: Back down to a 5.9 now.



Magnitude mb 6.1
Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES
Date time 2011-11-30 00:27:13.0 UTC
Location 15.48 N ; 119.16 E
Depth 60 km

edit on 29/11/11 by murkraz because: revisions



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 06:58 PM
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Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 00:27:08 UTC
Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 08:27:08 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
15.467°N, 119.031°E
Depth
14.6 km (9.1 miles)
Region
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
Distances
152 km (94 miles) WNW of Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines
154 km (95 miles) WSW of Dagupan, Luzon, Philippines
171 km (106 miles) WNW of Angeles, Luzon, Philippines
230 km (142 miles) WNW of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.2 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 5.3 km (3.3 miles)
Parameters
NST=236, Nph=238, Dmin=841.6 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=A
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0006znh


earthquake.usgs.gov...

now it's @ 6



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 08:27 PM
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reply to post by berkeleygal
 


But it might not be later. There is something odd about the phase data.


mb = 6.0 (148) ML = 5.1 ( 12) mblg = 3.9 ( 7) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 4.0 ( 2)


neic.usgs.gov...

The closer stations are reading it very much lower than the distant ones. I know they are often higher by a small amount.

Whilst there is a moment tensor solution for 6.0 Mw, for somw reason USGS have not changed to that on the data. Still showing mb.

This may be a change later

earthquake.usgs.gov...



posted on Nov, 29 2011 @ 11:14 PM
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reply to post by PuterMan
 


not the magnitudes, the locations

Macquarie Is (S of NZ)
Sumatra

Auckland Is. (S of NZ)
Sumatra

just seemed to be action/reaction
I wonder how many times it has happened before?

thats the trouble, if you don't mention something and it becomes relevant later you can't say "I told you so" afterwards



edit on 30-11-2011 by muzzy because: (no reason given)


I did a search on USGS-NEIC PDE, centre point between
Macquarie Is and Auckland Is, with 600km radius search, and then another search
mid point between the two Sumatra points with the same radius
2000/1/1 to 2011/11/27
and compared the results

Of 75 events in the Macq/Auck area 32 were followed within >3 days by an event in Sumatra area

roughly 40/60 odds then that if theres a quake in Macq/Auck, there will be one in Sumatra within 3 days

thats one way of looking at it,
on the other hand there were also 740 events in Sumatra that were not triggered by a southern event
and 43 events in Macq/Auck that didn't tigger one in Sumatra

edit on 30-11-2011 by muzzy because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 06:48 AM
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"November 30, 2011 – PHILIPPINES – A 5.0 and a 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the west coast of the Philippines along the Manila Trench. A 5.0 magnitude aftershock followed. The Manila Trench is an ocean trench in the South China Sea, west of the Philippines. It reaches a depth of about 5,400 m, in contrast with the average depth of the South China Sea of about 1,500 m. It is created by subduction, in which the Eurasian Plate is subducting under the Philippine Mobile Belt. The Manila Trench is associated with frequent earthquakes, and the plate movements which give rise to it are also responsible for the arc of volcanoes on the west side of the Philippine island of Luzon, including Mount Pinatubo which experienced a very violent VEI 6 Plinian eruption in 1991. It was the second largest volcanic eruption recorded in the 20th century. A 7.7 magnitude earthquake near Luzon in 1990 is believed to have been the trigger that set Pinatubo off. – © The Extinction Protocol"

I am sticking to my guns about the next major event happening in this region. Only this event will trigger a chain reaction heading basically north and then turning west across the mediterranean until it slams ino the mid atlantic ridge. I am doing a muzzy and "told you so"....only in this case "you ain't seen nothing yet"

I 'saw' the Japanese one a week before it happened, I even told my students to 'keep an eye' on Japan on the Tuesday. Well by Friday we all know what had happened, but it was far worse than what I 'saw'. The consequences of that event will be ongoing for generations.

For those of you who know me a little here, know I am still a 'newbie', I have basic knowledge of seismology, volcanology and geology. I joined here to learn more, which indeed I have. But you see, I have this 'gut' instinct about things, not just geographical matters. When I see things I go off and investigate the plausibility of my gut. Invariably I do find evidence to support my gut, but with the add on "unlikely to happen", and then BAM it happens. I have a foot in both camps so to speak, but when my 'gut' kicks in I am always right. I can assure you over the years I have 'seen' things which I have gone "nah, impossible, that is just ridiculous, never happen", but boy oh boy do I get a slap. So by the time Japan happened, I KNEW it would, but even I did not expect the ferocity and chain reaction that unfolded.

So, with what I have been 'shown' with what I have stuck my neck out about above is indeed a "you ain't seen nothing yet" situation.....I am more worried about how much worse it will be than what I have been shown.

"I see a bad moon rising"


End of my first brew of the morning rant

Rainbows
Jane



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 07:47 AM
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reply to post by PuterMan
 

This is good news for the folks of the New Madrid area if the results pan out.
So, the minimal movement/stress accumulation according to GPS data means the area should not see a large (let's say 6+ mag) quake for another few thousand years? Great news in theory, eh?

Because we know so little about intraplate earthquake behavior, I bet folks are having a hard time incorporating these findings. Really interesting, though.



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 08:35 AM
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Nov. 29, 2011

$2M grant could make early earthquake warning a reality in the Northwest

By Vince Stricherz

News and Information


www.washington.edu/news/articles/2m-grant-could-make-early-earthquake-warning-a-reality-in-the-northwest


When a magnitude 9 earthquake devastated Japan in March some residents got a warning, ranging from a few seconds to a minute or more, that severe shaking was on the way.

Now, with a $2 million grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation to the University of Washington, a similar warning system could be operational in the Pacific Northwest in as little as three years.

One-quarter of the grant money will go to placing 24 sensors that combine strong-motion detection and GPS readings along the coast to record the first signals from a major earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, which is just off the Pacific Coast from northern California to southern British Columbia.

“The main point is to spot a big earthquake at the time it starts. The main motivation for these stations is Puget Sound,” said John Vidale, a UW professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network based at UW.

The cities of Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, B.C., also would benefit from the system, but they are not believed to be as vulnerable as Seattle and the surrounding area, which is closer to the subduction zone. In addition, much of Seattle is built on a softer basin more susceptible to shaking in a huge quake.

(...)


USGS

Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Awards $6 million for Research Leading to West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System
Released: 11/29/2011 12:00:00 PM


www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3041



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 12:47 PM
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reply to post by muzzy
 


You have been downgraded Sir! I have on sale a mag 6.0 earthquake of the coast of New Zealand that has been reduced to Mag 5.8 for a quick sale. Only one previous owner.

USGS pages for downgraded quake


edit on 30/11/2011 by PuterMan because: To correct grammar wot I dun wrong.



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 12:47 PM
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reply to post by ulfcoyd
 


That's an important article, and should have it's own thread, imo. And it's about darn time. But that should have been US taxpayer dollars, and sad that it took a fricken private grant when we just bailed out some greasy, slimeball bankers.


And glad PM posted that article on the "dying" New Madrid fault. Die, die ,die! Cause I live close enough to be pretty bad affected if a big one hit.



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 12:55 PM
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I want to clean my lizard skin but is so hard, first I have to warm up but the sun is gone,that 6.0 it's like a T Rex ready to eat me...and all of us here...



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 01:49 PM
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Hmm, looks like we got a pretty good size quake coming in, Sumatra area...stay tuned...

Ok, nothing real bad, looks like 5.5 or so...maybe 6?
edit on Wed Nov 30th 2011 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)


5.8, just north of Sumatra:
earthquake.usgs.gov...
edit on Wed Nov 30th 2011 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 30 2011 @ 01:59 PM
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Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Hmm, looks like we got a pretty good size quake coming in, Sumatra area...stay tuned...

Ok, nothing real bad, looks like 5.5 or so...maybe 6?
edit on Wed Nov 30th 2011 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)
Nicobar Islands, India.Maybe 5.5,but I don't know!



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