Quake Watch 2011

So if there really is a correlation between CME's and quakes (not saying there is ) than we should expect something big today.

I have to say that there does seem to be a feeling of things building....but that's just me.

reply to post by westcoast

The CME arrived yesterday and has passed.

Don't throw facts at us Phage....westcoast feels like something's coming, and their personal feelings have always been nothing but acc.....ummm, nevermind.

reply to post by Phage


Well great, that's what I get for being a quake watcher and not a sun watcher.

Anyways, I don't buy into the theory, I am only interested in it. I think it plausable but far from proven.

As far as being accurate... well, my gut tends to be a bit more reliable than others, but I'm certainly wrong more than I am right.

Who's to say that IF the geomagnetic storm DOES affect earths tectonics, how it manifests.

Originally posted by westcoast
So if there really is a correlation between CME's and quakes (not saying there is

) than we should expect something big today.

I have to say that there does seem to be a feeling of things building....but that's just me.

Not just you. I feel very strongly about an earthquake of magnitude coming any time now(hours). For me it's a inner feeling of extreme edgyness. Feel like I'm jumping out of my skin. Irritable too. Not normal. Kind of came on Thursday night, don't know. I know I sound silly, but I was irrationally irritated for the Baja quake 2 easter's ago and then hours later a big earthquake, so now I don't ignore my feelings.

reply to post by westcoast


Westcoast, we should ALWAYS be in cognizant of our "gut" reactions to the world around us. Our personal survival skills depend upon it!

reply to post by Phage


If you look at some graphs in the past(on ats) , you will find that the shaking sometimes happens 3 to 7 days after the fire, so to speak............Just a thought.

reply to post by radpetey

Funny you should say that. I've looked at the graphs in some detail.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Sometimes the shaking doesn't happen at all. Sometimes it happens with no special solar activity at all.
Sometimes the phone rings as I step into the shower.

reply to post by Phage


There is more than anecdotal support of a correlation between solar activity and seismic activity. Obviously not enough to prove anything, but certainly more than your shower analogy suggests. I think a more apt analogy would be a woman at full term. Her due date has past, but still labor eludes her. She tries countless remedies but nothing is working. Finally, when she indulges in a spicy Italian dinner, loaded with oregano, she goes in to labor. She is absolutely positive that it was the dinner that triggered labor. There is a scientific basis for this stimulation of the bowels triggering uterine contractions, however, since she was already past due, there is no way to know if the spicy Italian dinner had any effect or if labor would have started on its own without it. Despite a lack of solid evidence, many full term woman swear by the spicy Italian dinner, and even more woman give it a shot. No one will ever know for sure. It's just one of those things...

Originally posted by PuterMan
On your theory that it needs time to work it's way into the 'infrastructure' what sort of time span do you consider to be reasonable after a magnetic anomaly is recorded to be able to say - yes that earthquake was caused by XYZ flare?

1 day, 3 days, 5 days? Would this depend on the magnetic variation? I am still trying to relate these flares to earthquakes, but so far most of what I am seeing proves that earthquakes cause solar flares!!!! (Well magnetic anomalies anyway

@Putterman;
For this purpose; As a rule of the thumb I would say LESS than 2 days.

The longer it takes, the lessor the impact will be. An 8 hour flux will rock us.
After 24 hours the CME energy (Proton, Electron and Magnetic) was too low at origin to have much effect; UNLESS Magnetosphere is very weak, or it hits for instance on top of S Atlantic anomaly; which might cause S. America to shake.

Real bad girls can slap our face in less than 8 hours.

NOTES:
Distance from Sun to Earth about 150 million km.
Average Solar Flux speed about 500 km/sec
That gives you an average of 3.5 days.(83h20 min)
A typical Class-M flare has speeds around 900 km/sec
That brings general flux time down to about 46h25.

The velocity of the current series of CME's, when reaching our Magnetosphere was about 610 km/sec = 68 hours

This flux speed is measured from proton (AKA Proton Flux Speed)
First serious study into the magnetic flux effects, speed, etc is now on line with ACE satelite from Japan.
(www2.nict.go.jp...)

Additional Factors to keep in mind:
Strength of the Earth's magnetosphere.
Direction of flare - i.e. direct pointed at Earth or passing far off. . .

PERSONAL NOTES:
Solar flux record speed I saw was 1650 km/sec but theoretically it can reach 30% the speed of light = 100,000 km/sec

Solar cycle of 11 years is based on numbers of Sunspots; not CME's.

There are major CME's even at low peak i.e. the biggest CME in recent history was November 2003; near solar minimum and that was a whooping X-28. Fortunately not directed towards Earth.

I did a study a few months back (can't find it on ATS now) comparing CMEs to Quakes and there was no match whatsoever, not even a pattern of time delay either, of any length.
Still with an open mind is there anywhere you can get the CME data from years past? that is accurate to the day, even time of day would be more helpful.
With only 23 (usgs figures) Mag 7's per year it shouldn't be too hard to see if there is any match over a longer period than I did (69 days)
Heres the chart, the CMEs are in red text and the class in brackets.

I see USGS had this on their list today
Not like them to post New Zealand quakes unless they are 5+ and then they miss half of those anyway
Not like many people reported it either, just 1 on geonet.

Magnitude 4.6
Date-Time
Saturday, August 06, 2011 at 12:40:10 UTC
Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 12:40:10 AM at epicenter
Location 38.374°S, 175.725°E
Depth 188.6 km (117.2 miles)
Region NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Distances 52 km (32 miles) WSW of Rotorua, New Zealand
161 km (100 miles) NW of Napier, New Zealand
187 km (116 miles) SSE of Auckland, New Zealand
335 km (208 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 25 km (15.5 miles); depth +/- 22.4 km (13.9 miles)
Parameters NST= 21, Nph= 23, Dmin=77.9 km, Rmss=0.66 sec, Gp= 97°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: Inst. of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usc00059sb

reply to post by Phage


Silly me. I figured after I posted that it was probably your graph I was referring to.......Peace Jedi master.

reply to post by westcoast


Very unlikely. Not only because I still doubt it affects it but even if it does.....

PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Aug 7 2011, 1215 UT

There is a slight increase in flaring activity. We estimate the chances for an M-flare to be between 20% and 30%. We have now a full view of the ACE data showing the arrival of the shock associated with the fast CME of Aug 04. The data show no rotation of the magnetic field. This means that we did not pass through the magnetic cloud but only through the shock and plasma sheath as predicted. The caused geomagnetic disturbance was however large because of the large total magnetic field and strong negative Bz component of the field. An explanation is the cumulation of energy of the Aug 03 and Aug 04 CME. The Aug 04 overtook probably the Aug 03 CME leading to CME cannibalism. The geomagnetic conditions are now quiet. Unsettled conditions are possible if the solar wind emanating from the southern coronal hole reaches Earth.

sidc.oma.be...

reply to post by Aromaz


OK, thanks for responding. Still looking as I have not closed my mind on this subject yet.

By the way...

Strength of the Earth's magnetosphere

Not very strong by all accounts!

During solar minimum the Sun's magnetic field, like Earth's, resembles that of an iron bar magnet, with great closed loops near the equator and open field lines near the poles. Scientists call such a field a "dipole." The Sun's dipolar field is about as strong as a refrigerator magnet, or 50 gauss. Earth's magnetic field is 100 times weaker.

Spaceweather.com

Sort of makes one wonder..........

reply to post by muzzy


You can get the data for the magnetogram data in CDE format which requires something like matlab to read. As I said somewhere else "I did install GNU Octave which is a matlab equivalent but I am afraid I am not an academic and find it very difficult to understand the antique interface. "

On the other had it is just a data file and basically consists of a header and data. Not really much different to the SAC files which I wrote something to read SO, when I get a minute I shall tear it apart byte by byte and see if I can come up with something.

I have downloaded the 2011 data which is 317 MB and actually only goes up to April. There is one file for each hour of each day so it is a bit of a nightmare!!! 2,184 data files that need to be melded into one database.

Need more hours.....

If you or anyone else wants to have a go then the place you get the data is here




In my unending quest for data I have just come across this, which is access to ASCII magnetometer data amongst other things, for the STEREO spacecraft.

www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu...

Now obviously this is not earth based so you would need to know whether what you see in the data will indeed hit earth or bypass it, but it may be of use sometime particularly if there is any connection that is provable.

Actually this page takes you straight to the data

aten.igpp.ucla.edu...




Mm, does not have very recent data it seems. Obviously they haven't had time to massage that yet

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time

Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 14:35:34 UTC
Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 05:35:34 PM at epicenter

Location 38.395°N, 21.930°E
Depth 5.6 km (3.5 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region GREECE
Distances

25 km (16 miles) NE (44°) from Patras, Greece
144 km (89 miles) SSW (197°) from Larisa, Greece
153 km (95 miles) N (354°) from Kalamata, Greece
164 km (102 miles) WNW (286°) from ATHENS, Greece

reply to post by chester1662


I can just see the people pouring out of their houses into the street in panic.

emsc testimonies

reply to post by PuterMan


sounds too complicated.
you have enough on your plate, don't worry about it for my sake.

This came from the NOAA site under the Latest SWPC 3 day forecast.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 07 August as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
Levels are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on 08 August.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 09 August.

From reading the warning it sounds like tomorrow there could be issues. But then it could be a false flag because the Gov't could shut down the power and save the markets. But those of you with a gut feeling I say listen to it.