Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


Sounds a bit far fetched, how could a massive volcano bigger than Lyttelton or Akaroa hide from marine survey all these years? Lyt ( approx. 22km dia) and Ak ( approx. 34km dia) are pretty huge, compare them in size to the current active submarine volcano's up north of the Bay of Plenty on Google Earth, even White Island (18km dia) quite small.
If you want to see a big volcano off the coast of NZ check out -36.980906°, 174.153848°, Waitakere Volcano off Piha Beach, that one predates the Banks Peninsula ones, now buried in sediment.

I doubt a 9 is possible, the Hikurangi Margin would have to rip from East Cape to Kaikoura for that, and besides one end is locked into the Southern Alps.
An 8 was possible in the Alps, though more unlikely now after the 7.2, 6.3, 6.3 series which would have released a lot of stress.

edit, If a 9.0 hit NZ's East Coast we'd all be toast, not just Canterbury

reply to post by muzzy


Could a really big one be possible off the Chatham Rise area? I've read there are faultines up to 700kms long out there. They really did think it wasn't possible for Japan to have a nine and they did so I'm a little wary of "what should happen" vs what really does! I've also read that besides the usual ruptures of the alpine fault (in sections), it has a "full" rupture about every 1000 years (now 100 years overdue) - a full rupture would give us at least an 8, possibly higher. I think I read too much But it does sometimes keep me awake at night... does anyone really "know" what it would be like - cause the last time it went no one was living here to give an account of it!

reply to post by Evltre

I think a 6+ offshore Kaikoura is more likely at this stage myself, but hey who really knows?

Originally posted by Evltre
does anyone really "know" what it would be like - cause the last time it went no one was living here to give an account of it!

I think the Maori might have something to say about that....also there are traces in the landscape (offset of rivers, terraces, raised beaches etc...).

I'll see what I can dig up about the Chatham Rise, but no one I know professionally (Geologists) have mentioned anything about undersea volcanoes on the Chatham Rise or anywhere near Banks Peninsula....I'm more of a palaeontologist/sedimentoligst so I don't know as much as the structural or tectonic guys regarding earthquakes (though I could tell them a thing or two about biostratigraphy ).

Originally posted by muzzy
Another Southern Ocean mystery quake.

I can't find anything that corresponds on any of the networks.
As happened the last time 18/6/2011 it was within an hour of a Balleny Is. Mag 5
It showed quite stronger on Narrogin ( Western Australia) than Charters Towers ( Queensland) so I'm picking this Mag 5+ ? was "South of Australia" down below Tasmania or The Great Australian Bight.

I wonder how many of these get missed?, I don't check every day, but thats 2 this month I've seen in casual passing.
How much would that skew the USGS graphs eh?

the plot thickens............................ the fat lady hadn't sung yet .................

Just noticed this quake had been added as well (Generated 2011 JUN 28 at 18:27 UTC)
Magnitude 5.4 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE 2011 June 27 17:02:36 UTC
earthquake.usgs.gov...

so that one I marked as Flores on the graphs is not Flores at all, I thought it was a delayed signal, and being a 5.8 .................. it must have been the 17:02:36 SEPR quake.
I couldn't figure out how Flores would have shown a stronger signal at the South Pole than Queensland (which is closer to Flores)
doh

edit: so there were actually 2 mystery quakes
but now the mystery is solved


this is how I spotted it, just checking the Southern Hemisphere Map, and thought hey I didn't notice that one before
earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by muzzy

so that one I marked as Flores on the graphs is not Flores at all, I thought it was a delayed signal, and

Actually you were not wrong. I had already marked that one out as Flores but did not post the plot image because it was superfluous. but here it is now.

Note that the Flores one actually starts on the previous line - verified against the phase data. I have to say I did not spot that the shape was a tad curious either and if you go to the phase data for that new one you will find

SNZO LR 17:22:39.30 42.2 263 SNZO

That matches the bigger 'lump' in the trace exactly. Ignore my comments on the plot, I only put it up to show where the phase data mark the start of Flores. Note also that Flores is deepish which may have an effect on where it is seen and at what 'strength'.

reply to post by PuterMan


Yeah the phase data is handy as a cross reference to check which one is which, but it kind of throws you when there was one that isn't on the list
Its certainly not a precise science, more like witchcraft

reply to post by muzzy


Which craft? - Ah, 'Eye of newt' and all that. Yes sounds very appropriate. Do you think a potion of two would sort the USGS?

As you say if the quake is not listed you can't look at the phase data, but it is useful for eliminating the others. We shall have to hone out mystery quake skills. I am sure there will be more!

A small one for the Jafa's (Aucklanders) so they don't feel left out

Reference Number 3538900
Universal Time July 1 2011 at 9:09
NZ Standard Time Friday, July 1 2011 at 9:09 pm
Latitude, Longitude 36.84°S, 174.84°E
Focal Depth 9 km
Richter magnitude 2.9
Region Auckland
Location
10 km east of Auckland

2656 reports (well there are over a million people live there)



In case anyone was wondering how rare this is, heres an interactive map of the last hundred years

The answer is .................... 1.01 /year

Geographic Rectangular Grid Search
Latitude: -36.577 (north) to -37.25 (south)
Longitude: 175.444 (east) to 174.148 (west)
Source: Geonet National Earthquake Information Database
Date Range: 1911/7/1 to 2011/7/1 UTC
Magnitude Range: 0 - 9.0
Number of events : 101

Interactive Auckland Quake Map 100 Years

It should be noted that those co-ordinates I used are for the greater Auckland City area, and does not include the Hauraki Gulf up between Whangaparoa Peninsula, Kawau Island, Little Barrier Island and Cormandel Peninsula where there seems to be about the same number again.

11th one this year, but that doesn't mean they are increasing, probably just getting better at recording them
Auckland Quake List 100 Years

This one is more in central Nevada.

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 3.2
Date-Time Friday, July 01, 2011 at 19:51:22 UTC
Friday, July 01, 2011 at 12:51:22 PM at epicenter

Location 39.331°N, 115.629°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region NEVADA
Distances 35 km (22 miles) SE (125°) from Eureka, NV
45 km (28 miles) N (9°) from Duckwater, NV
46 km (29 miles) NW (318°) from Willow Grove, NV
65 km (40 miles) W (278°) from Ely, NV
351 km (218 miles) N (354°) from Las Vegas, NV

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 21.8 km (13.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 7, Nph= 9, Dmin=109.4 km, Rmss=0.54 sec, Gp=292°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=8
Source Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno

Event ID nn00342122

Source - USGS

ETA: Not only did they downgrade it, they moved the location of the earthquake too!

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 2.9
Date-Time Friday, July 01, 2011 at 19:51:23 UTC
Friday, July 01, 2011 at 12:51:23 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 39.187°N, 115.290°W
Depth 8.5 km (5.3 miles)
Region NEVADA
Distances 18 km (11 miles) N (354°) from Willow Grove, NV
36 km (23 miles) WSW (258°) from Ely, NV
44 km (27 miles) NW (326°) from Lund, NV
333 km (207 miles) N (359°) from Las Vegas, NV

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 34.7 km (21.6 miles); depth +/- 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Parameters NST= 4, Nph= 4, Dmin=96.7 km, Rmss=0.11 sec, Gp=349°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=8
Source Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno

Event ID nn00342122

Source - USGS

Just wondering if these are glitches as it doesn't show up as being any earthquakes in this area.

Alum Creek State Park, Delaware, OH, USGS website seismograph

There are 3 on this day and one the next day. Usually, this site is pretty quiet. I've been to this state park in the past and shy of a boat passing on the water, there aren't any disturbances that could cause this, but I haven't been there in a few years either.

reply to post by MountainEnigma


Yes indeed, they are telemetry errors. The error may not have occurred at the instrument as usually these are caused somewhere along the way.

It is a typical telemetry error signature.

Northeastern Montana:

Earthquake Details

This is a computer-generated message -- this event has not yet been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 3.5
Date-Time Friday, July 01, 2011 at 22:03:06 UTC
Friday, July 01, 2011 at 04:03:06 PM at epicenter

Location 48.105°N, 108.311°W
Depth 5.4 km (3.4 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region EASTERN MONTANA
Distances 19 km (12 miles) ENE (64°) from Lodge Pole, MT
31 km (19 miles) ENE (65°) from Hays, MT
33 km (20 miles) S (189°) from Dodson, MT
374 km (232 miles) SW (227°) from Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
865 km (538 miles) NNE (18°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 3.5 km (2.2 miles); depth +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles)
Parameters NST= 25, Nph= 25, Dmin=108 km, Rmss=0.63 sec, Gp=173°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=2
Source Earthquake Studies Office, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology

Event ID mb11948206

Source - USGS

hi guys,

sorry to just butt into this (awesome) thread periodically,

but i have sort of got addicted to that USGS monitoring service,


earthquake.usgs.gov...


i just have to check it all the time !!!

sorry, i know its sad...

anyway,
for only the 2nd or 3rd time since FEB 22,

((when i first started paying close attention ))

we have had NO MAG 5+ E/Q's in the last 24hrs...ANYWHERE.

normally 4 or 5 PER DAY...

i thought it was getting really quiet over the period of 2-3 weeks ago,
and then BANG...a mag 7+ and 5 0r 6x mag 6+ in a week...

seeya

Gulf of Aden, 300 km SE from still errupting Nabro:

At this spot usual to have between 1 and 4 small quakes per week. Now a slight change:
28 June = 3x around 3 mag
29/30/1 = none as usual
Yesterday 2 June = 11 small quakes between 3.1 and 4.6; 'default' depth of 10 and 15 km.

This is right on the edge of the Tadjoura rift; at the tripple junction Arabian, Nubian and Somali plates.

www.oga.dj...

Anyone want to ring in on the last 36 hours on the west coast

reply to post by shaneR

Yeah its pretty quiet alright, tap tap tap is this thing working

just 1 quake in New Zealand in the 21 hours, 34 minutes and 35 seconds since the Auckland quake

a 3.9 Banks Peninsula

There were probably more, thats all thats showing on the data base right now.

Was a New Moon on the 1st, so much for the theory of the Moon influencing the earthquakes

Lets hope they stream back on lightly and gradually and not with a big wallop

I'm predicting a 5.5 or larger will hit Christchurch/Canterbury in the next 48 hours...just a 'feeling'.

It's funny but these 'quiet periods make me pretty nervous, as in the past we just start to relax, than KABOOM!!!

reply to post by muzzy


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e65da657148f.png[/atsimg]

Yes it is working! Don't tempt fate muzzy! Piers Corbyn should have got out there and tapped it to make his prediction work.

Just came on to say that the Radiation Monitor site is back up and running again after being down for 2 days (See my signature)

reply to post by PuterMan


Thanks PuterMan,
got a good laugh out of this thread...cheers!
+ ATS for that matter...

anyway also just had another moment,
when i was on USGS...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

and got lucky to see the QUESTION mark under MAG...
for an E/Q in CALIFORNIA....

DRUM ROLL>>>

( then i looked away for a moment), and when i looked back,
my eyes went to DEPTH,
instead of MAG,
and it read 5.6...
+ i thought ...WOW !!!
but it was momentary !

anyway,
a couple of little shakes in California...

MAG ? 2011/07/03 14:21:31 36.463 -121.040 5.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAG 2.8 2011/07/03 14:19:17 36.462 -121.040 6.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

(oh, they have taken down the "questioned" E/Q alltogether....)
must have been a "reflection"???

seeya