A third world war could lay the ground work for a supranational union of sorts, but I don't think its going to follow the scenarios people on ATS like
to throw around, which usually involves a war against Iran ballooning into WW3.
Instead I offer four different scenarios: (I was kind of bored and these were fun to write, so please excuse the length
And Now for Something Completely Different!
1. The European Civil War.
This begins in the near future after native Europeans swing further to the right and neo fascism rears its head. Some governments begin to crack down
on immigrants especially Muslims. Riots and terrorism follow. States of Emergency are declared across Europe and numerous Muslims and immigrants are
interned in camps. Not all EU members agree with the crackdown and threaten secession from the union. This creates an even larger crisis as the EU
appears to be on the verge of Balkanization. In the midst of the chaos, a federal European government forms in Brussels, one probably empowered by the
An event occurs igniting outright conflict between EU member states. The US is caught in the middle of it and whoever side the UK falls on, is the
side the US most likely falls on. There is a good chance that the other side gains Russian support.
So NATO collapses and a another World War ignited in Europe follows. Lasts four or five years, tens of millions dead, the US is bankrupt, and the
torch passes on to a new Supranational Union.
2. The Bad Israelis
This scenario could begin in a number of ways, from another Arab-Israeli war, major crackdown on Palestinians, or assault on Iran. Could be all of the
above. A new Nationalist cabinet takes over in Israel, one possibly lead by an Avigdor Lieberman type. After taking power they tell the US to shove it
and launch their operation, whatever it is. The US cuts off aid to Israel. The Israelis still don't back down and tell the US and its allies to shove
The US claims before the UN and NATO that Israel plans on invading Saudi Arabia to take its oilfields. The UN passes a resolution authorizing an
international coalition be created to deploy in Saudi Arabia. Desert Shield II begins. 400,000 NATO troops arrive in the Middle East.
Another ultimatum is made to Israel, that they cease operations against whoever they are fighting with and withdraw from Palestinian territories,
including East Jerusalem. Israel tells the coalition they will never give up Jerusalem ever.
So the coalition deadline passes and NATO naval and air forces begin their assault.
Unlike Iraq 1991, this turns into a major fiasco. The IAF sinks a number of NATO ships, shoots down a number of B-2s, and uses the MTHEL system to
intercept all cruise missiles. The IDF then launches a counter strike devestating numerous allied air bases in the region and even causes the Suez
canal to close after sinking a number of oil tankers in it. IDF ground forces cross into Saudi Arabia and engage allied forces. It is the biggest
armored engagement since WW2. Allied forces fall back towards the Persian Gulf and Iraq. Meanwhile Mossad causes all kinds of havoc on allied computer
networks and launches numerous attacks at allied infrastructure world wide.
Allied forces regroup and ask for assistance from Russia, China, and India. The largest military mobilization since WW2 begins. At the same time Jews
around the world are targeted and many are rounded up into internment camps.
Inside the US a number of Southern protestant megachurches are raided, many of its leadership are arrested. Television stations and programming funded
by them are shut down. "Zionist" Christians are thrown in the camps with the Jews.
Over 2 million troops pour into the Middle East. They begin the push towards Jerusalem. Initially the Israelis do well, but soon they realize they are
running low on fuel and munitions. They fall back. Many tanks and armored vehicles are abandoned as they fall back to Israel. Allied forces instead of
attacking across the Jordan River, come down from the north. Tel Aviv falls and the IDF falls back to Jerusalem. Last allied preparations are made at
Megiddo before the final assault on Jerusalem.
Allied forces descend upon Jerusalem and the IDF makes them fight for every single block. The Israelis make a last warning to the allies about the
Samson option. The allies fail to take heed and Israel launches its entire nuclear arsenal. The weapons wipe out major cities across the Middle East
and Europe. The Israeli leadership in their bunker are found dead from self inflicted gunshots or poison. The war ends with tens of millions dead,
NATO bankrupt, and a new Supranational Union forms with its HQ in "free" Jerusalem.
3. The Chinese Collapse
Pro democracy demonstrators and unrest among the Uighurs and Tibetans destabilizes China. Chinese troops deploy into Tibet and Xinjiang. Attempts are
made at crushing the insurgencies, but chaos continues to spread as riots and protests engulf China's major cities. Meanwhile millions of refugees
attempt to flee into India and Russia.
As anarchy descends upon the people's Republic, Taiwan and India make preparations for intervention. Indian troops mobilize and after being assured
that China's government has collapsed, they cross into Tibet. In the east ROC forces land on the Chinese coast and secure the former PRC capital.
Things don't go as planned though. Pakistan accuses India of invading China and warns them to withdraw from Tibet. Meanwhile North Korean troops cross
the border into China. Japan and South Korea both warn North Korea to withdraw their forces. Lastly, Russia and the US both worry that Xinjiang could
become a new haven for terrorists. Neither have a joint plant to intervene though.
This quickly spirals out of control and before you know it Pakistan, India, and North Korea have detonated nuclear weapons leaving over 100 million
dead and much of East Asia in ruins. The war ends with a ceasefire enforced by Russia and the US, and the formation of Supranational Union between the
East and West.
4. The Big Bad Americans
After a global financial collapse, the United States is left with 30% unemployment and hyperinflation making the dollar worthless. They pull all of
their troops back to the US and hand overseas bases to their host nations. It is near anarchy in the streets and paramilitary gangs, both communist
and theofascist, form as vigilantes. A number of US states go bankrupt and the federal government offers bailouts in exchange for sovereignty.
The Theofascists gain the upper hand in the street wars and begin to gain popular support from some corporations and sponsor politicians. They emerge
as a full fledged political party. They target minorities, non Christians, and immigrants.
They expand their ranks and take seats in the House and Senate, along with many state legislatures. A number of Theofascist governors are elected
across the nation. The administration at the time and both current parties try to make amends with the Theofascists. The nail in the coffin is the Tea
Party- Republican alliance with the Theofascists, which puts Theofascist cabinet members in the White House.
A major terror attack occurs, probably nuclear terrorism, which the fascists blame on "antichristians". US foreign policy targets "antichristian"
nations around the world. They ride the surge of hate and religious zeal into the Presidency and pledge to defend true Christians around the world
from the "antichristians". The US then expands and annexes parts of Central America and the Carribean.
The US accuses a nation, probably Canada, of attacking Christians, and launches an all out invasion thats over with in a month. This sparks worldwide
outrage and condemnation, especially by former US allies. NATO and Russia form a new alliance and declare war on the US.
By the time they fully mobilize and begin to deploy the US controls an empire stretching from the Panama Canal to Alaska. The US makes a fatal
strategic mistake. They attempt to invade South America and Russia at the same time. US forces are bogged down in the Amazon and in Siberia. NATO
forces land on the east coast of the US and capture Washington DC, NYC, and Boston. The US capital is relocated to Denver.
Russian forces expel US forces back to Alaska and pursue after them. They are unable to pursue further after getting themselves bogged down in Alaska.
NATO forces occupy the US Northeast Corridor, but are unable to make gains in the Appalachians or Southern US. China at this point sends troops to
South America and with PLA help, Brazil is able to push US forces back across the Panama canal.
US forces continue to fall back from Panama and face major uprisings in Central America and the US Southwest. South American and Chinese forces push
all the way to the Rio Grande and the Sonora. Part of their forces are bogged down in Texas but they make major gains in California and Arizona. The
US falls back on the nuclear option. The elite of the US take shelter in fortified bunkers in Utah and other parts of the Intermountain West. They
then give the orders to launch.
Many of the officers refuse the orders. Very few if any are launched and the few that do are shotdown or fail after launch. Chinese, Russian, British
and French subs launch a counter attack, wiping out Denver, major cities in Texas and the Southern US. Remaining US commanders surrender to NATO
In the aftermath, parts of the former US are occupied by foreign troops and a North American Union is formed with its capital in Toronto. It is just
one component of a new Supranational Union. The End?
James Bond Will Return.
These are all fictional scenarios and would be alot of fun to wargame to see how they play out.
I offer these as an alternative to the conventional scenarios on ATS that get repeated over and over.
edit on 15/12/10 by MikeboydUS because: