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(Kitco News) -- BNP Paribas looks for an underlying global copper of 200,000 metric tons this year and 500,000 for 2011. “Real tightness” exists, even without the advent of exchange-traded funds for the metal, says a report from analyst Stephen Briggs. He looks for global copper-demand growth to abate some to 4%-5% in 2011 from 9%-10% this year. However, constraints in mine supply exist, he says. There were few mine cutbacks in 2008-09, so restarts are adding little to capacity, plus ore grades are falling at many mines. BNP has some doubts about how popular physically backed base-metals ETFs will be with investors. Still, the market is so tight that even modest ETF tonnage “risk material being bid away from consumers,” BNP says. “We expect real tightness to be the main driver in 2011 and the market may move into unchartered waters of demand rationing,” BNP says. “So it is impossible to say how much further the copper price may rise, and it may not be helpful to join that now appears to be a bidding war among analysts.” BNP is forecasting $10,000 a metric ton for 2011 and $11,000 for 2012. “What we can probably say is that copper will continue next year to outperform other base metals, except perhaps tin,” BNP says.