Originally posted by 1curious1
reply to post by Sheol
Can you get to the Wikileak website this morning? Just wondering if the site has again been attacked, or if the US has blocked it's content as
suggested on the second headline of the Drudge Report, "US cuts access to files".
I can't get to it at all so far today.
Lots of headlines due to the Wikileaks leaks that China is no longer backing North Korea, and on the face of it, it appears the New Guard in Beijing,
who wish to drop North Korea in favour of South Korea, are prevailing in wishing to see North Korea dropped in preference for the South, and a United
Korea as long as it's no threat to China. There's a Old Guard-New Guard struggle in Beijing, The Old Guard think bonds with North Korea should not
be broken, having been forged in blood by The Korean War, while The New Guard favour dropping North Korea in favour of South Korea.
But. Let's be careful and cautious here.
The main allegation in the leaks that China is ready to drop North Korea comes from South Korea's
Vice Foreign Minister telling a US
Ambassador what two Chinese officials had told him.
US embassy cables: China 'would accept' Korean reunification
Let's be very cautious. South Korea has an interest in convincing the US that China does not back North Korea, to placate American concerns regarding
North Korea and any US concern that it may find itself in disagreement with or upsetting Beijing, and it is also in the South Korean interest to
trumpet to the US that China supports the prospect of a Korea united under the South.
Because of this claim in the US Embassy cables about China wanting to drop North Korea comes from a South Korean Vice Foreign Minister, I am
I personally find the following even more interesting:
From the Link:
7. (S) Chun acknowledged the Ambassador's point that a strong ROK-Japan relationship would help Tokyo accept a reunified Korean Peninsula under
Seoul's control. Chun asserted that, even though "Japan's preference" was to keep Korea divided, Tokyo lacked the leverage to stop reunification
in the event the DPRK collapses.
According to South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister, Japan wants to keep South Korea divided.
Another US Embassy cable:
US embassy cables: China favours Korean reunification in long term
From the Link:
NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS, DOMESTIC POLITICS
10. (C) Guoping seemed genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent
ASTANA 00000982 003 OF 004
nuclear missile tests. "We need to solve this problem. It is very troublesome," he said, calling Korea's nuclear activity a "threat to the whole
world's security." China opposes North Korea's nuclear testing and is working to achieve peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, according to
Guoping. When asked about the reunification of Korea, Guoping said China hopes for peaceful reunification in the long-term, but he expects the two
countries to remain separate in the short-term. Guoping said the domestic political situation in North Korea is "very complex" and suggested that
Kim Jong-il's reported decision to anoint his youngest son as his successor was driven more by Kim's deteriorating health than any carefully planned
strategy. "They had no time to plan for this," he said. Guoping said the "military really governs" North Korea and controls domestic politics and
foreign policy. He suggested that Kim Jong-il's announcement was designed to send a message to the military and the great powers that he is really in
charge and in control. Guoping said China's objectives in North Korea were to ensure they honor their commitments on nonproliferation, maintain
stability, and "don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad."
Here a Chinese Ambassador explains China is in favour of reunification, but is very careful not to say whether that would be under the North or
The New Guard do seem to be prevailing, but these cables are from what I have read thus far:
1) A demonstration of what an ambassador or minister will tell a representative of the US. This does not mean this is Chinese policy, merely what may
be the Chinese policy to tell the Americans, so that Chinese real policy is not revealed too much to the sunlight. Consider it like a game of
2) The strongest impression that China is ready to drop North Korea and support A United Korea ruled by Seoul comes from a South Korean Vice Foreign
Minister to a US Ambassador, regaling what the Chinese had told him. Let us note that it is in South Korea's interest to say China has stopped
supporting North Korea, but also that this claim is told by not the Chinese, but a South Korean government minister who is delivering this report
3) The revelation I think from this, that I should not find surprising is the South Korean impression Japan DOES NOT support a reunified Korea, which
does not seem to have garnered much interest in the media. Japan's alleged stance can be understood when we realise Korea would be a powerful
neighbour if united, an economic rival to Japan, and what Japan fears most, a possible United Korea that is close to China.
The following US Embassy cable leak gives details of a conversation between Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew (A very powerful figure in
Singapore) and US diplomats which stands in stark contrast to what the South Korean Vice Foreign Minister said about China's stance towards North
US embassy cables: Former Singapore PM on 'psychopathic' North
From the Link, I have extracted the most interesting points, emboldening parts of particular interest:
4. (S) Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on May 30 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual
international security forum held in Singapore. The Deputy Secretary used the meeting with MM Lee to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in
addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee's views on China and North Korea. MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to
have nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to collapse. The ROK would take over
in the North and China would face a U.S. presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad
for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he stated.
According to MM Lee, The Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons, but do not want North Korea to collapse as the ROK would take over
the North and China would have a US Presence on it's borders.
This flies in the face of what the South Korean Vice Foreign Minister claimed about China no longer backing North Korea and being happy to see a
United Korea ruled by Seoul.
5. (S) MM Lee said he asked Deputy Chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General
Ma's Delphic answer was that "they can survive on their own." MM Lee said he interpreted this as meaning that even if China cut off aid, the DPRK
leadership would survive. This is a leadership that has already taken actions like killing ROK Cabinet Members in Burma and shooting down a KAL
flight. If they lose power, they will end up facing justice at The Hague, like Milosevic. They have been so isolated for so long that they have no
friends, not even Russia. They have not trusted China since the Chinese began cultivating ties with the ROK, given China's interest in attracting
foreign investment, he said. The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach. If
not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan.
North Korea facing 'A change of course' meaning if it did not change it's approach, it would face US/ROK/Japanese military action?
6. (S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea's decisions will have an impact in Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well "go
nuclear." The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less
bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state. The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK's current
leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
MM Lee believes, and China according to him believes that Japan may acquire nuclear weapons. According to MM Lee, China would see losing North Korea
as a buffer state as worse than Japan acquiring nuclear weapons.
7. (S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear
weapons. They might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the USG decides to seek regime change. They are
psychopathic types, with a "flabby old chap" for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation.
MM Lee states that North Korea posesses nuclear weapons to deter regime change, which everyone already knows.
USG = United States Government.
8. (S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is
"nothing there" in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has
another stroke.The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like
flies. China is calculating all this. They have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance common objectives.
But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee said.
In conclusion, it seems from this US Embassy Cable (If MM Lee is to be believed) that while China may be tired of Kim Jong-il, they like having North
Korea as a buffer state so that South Korea does not take over so that there is a US Presence on the Chinese border, and that China sees losing North
Korea as a buffer as worse than seeing Japan attain nuclear weapons, which seems to be taken as an increasing liklihood.
The Chinese, according MM Lee, are banking on the current generation of North Korean leaders to be gone soon in favour of a new generation, and hope
Kim Jong-un will not be so much like his father and Grandfather.
Of course, whose side China is on depends on who you believe, a South Korean government minister in whose government's interest it's in is to tell
the US that China is on South Korea's side, (And in whose ear China may be whispering sweet nothings knowing it will be passed on to the US) or the
most powerful man in Singapore who has been on the political scene for the past 50 years or more in East Asia and knows the neighbourhood.
Of course, who prevails Old Guard-New Guard wise will ensure whose side China does take in reality.
These Wikileaks leaks do seem "controlled" to the extent that it appears, through media portrayal and some of the leaks, that Iran and North Korea
are the ones that are most targetted.
What I mean by this is that I find it very interesting that it's leaked that the US's Arab allies in the region want to see Iran bombed. No
surprises there, but this, and the claim North Korea has given missiles to Iran capable of hitting Europe (Where have he heard that sort of stuff
before? Are they ready to fire in 45 mins? Yawn) it does wonders for Israel's public relations in it's desire for war with Iran. Iran can hit
Europe! Thanks to North Korea! The Arab world is with us against Iran! etc.
Similarily, a US Embassy Cable regarding a South Korean government minister's claims that China is ready to stop supporting North Korea is much hyped
by the MSM (and willed on by The Obama administration and Seoul, possibly) and could encourage those who wish to just launch an attack on North Korea,
and give comfort to those who are concerned about what China would do if war breaks out.
I think the MSM is promoting leaks that fit agendas, so US Embassy Cables that could be used to give justification for war with Iran are promoted, as
well as the ones where North Korea are portrayed as having no friends and are about to topple.
Is Wikileaks to blame, or are it's releases just being manipulated and certain ones promoted to advance agendas set by TPTB and the MSM?
That is the question.