Can China Invade Taiwan?

@ chinaman

wow - how very quickly your chinese mind has decided who I am. just shows your narrow mindedness. I was converted?? Nope. In fact, we are of Syrian ancestry.

Now what else you got say??

but, you certainly have a singularly strong hatred/jealousy towards china and isn't that against your christian believes and your "i am a citizen of the world" philosophy???

coz i just want to open your eyes! on how your own biased retarded thinking about others! you like to point out others faults by saying doesnt the christian faith profess this and that. Yet you yourself fail to practise any form of civility to others in this forum.

what a faker!

"chinaman"

wow, you just can't get over this name calling stuff... lol You are an indian from Syria, great. Man, you just cant stop making things up, can you. lol

what? never heard of indians of syrian origin? yet you profess your well renouned knowledge of india - with all the links the chicoms have provided how bad the brahmins are?? lol!!

www.nestorian.org...

you are complete ignorant tosspot, aren't you? how old are you? 12? 13??

[edit on 14-11-2004 by aryaputhra]

hehhe,,

seems I know a lot more about india than you do about china. At least I know what dalits mean which you/your ancestor must have been. I can understand the kind of psychological scar the brahmins must have done upon your kind, aka untouchable. As a result, you converted to Christianity and moved out of india to seek fortunes else where because you being a dark person in india doesn't have a future. I understand your inferiority complex and it is very hard to heal. But, hey you are born a dark person so might as well live with it.

I feel you, my lad. I know you are only 7 years old, but you have shown great potential so far with all the stuff you have made up so far:

1) indian first, then syrian
2) hindu first, then christian
3) Brahmins first, then dalits
4) saying Chinese call the whites masters. BTW, have you found where we call the whites masters.

Originally posted by aryaputhra
i'm from the world over. Africa, India, China, Singapore UAE, and Australia. So I hate to be singled out into one single country.

interesting multinational..hmm

Originally posted by Hawkssss
Kashmiris are proud inidans??? This is really funny and is that why they keep killing indians and attack your partliament in your capital??? What about the northeast region where the mongloids people are revolting agatinst indian landgrabbing and aggression for years. Hum, also the Khalistan problem is still well live. What about the dalits, aka untouchables who are converting to muslims and christians in mass due to ill-treatment by the 3% of Brahmins which you must have been. Funny, you are making india appear to be the only heaven on earth while chinese is twice richer and live 10 years longer than an indian on average.

Well let's see how our indian friend spin this website and it seems we chinese are small potatos compared with the kind of atrocities committed by the peace-loving indians.

Mass Murder in Kashmir

"Whether or not one agrees with President Clinton's policy in Kosovo, we went there to stop the `ethnic cleansing' of the Kosovars by the Serbian government. Yet we have averted our glance from a similar campaign throughout India , a situation the Indian Supreme Court described as `worse than a genocide.' This ethnic cleansing has taken the lives of over 250,000 Sikhs since 1984, over 200,000 Christians in Nagaland since 1947, over 60,000 Muslims in Kashmir since 1988, and thousands upon thousands of Dalits, Assamese, Manipuris, Tamils, and other minority peoples."

indianterrorism.bravepages.com...

[edit on 14-11-2004 by Hawkssss]

stop posting the same link in various threads!! Its childish!!!

And those who attacked the parliment were foreign militants, not kashmiris.Thats what I said the kashmiris are now distancing themselves from these insurgents because they have hi-jacked the kashmiri cause.
Also another thing, the stuff you talk about brahmins being in control and all?
Well I shamefully accept that it was the case around say 50 to 100 years ago. NOT ANYMORE though!! Is our government predominanantly brahmin? Do you know the % of MPs who are dalit? But how will you know. You dont know squat about democracy do you. Do you know that our electoral system, govt recruitment system, civil services, education system have reservations for the "dalits" and other downtrodden classes?
I sit in the same class with such "untouchables" and they get to be there even though they've scored half as much as me in the entrance exam!!Plus their education (and this at the graduate level not schooling) is free!!
But I respect that because I understand that they were discriminated against in the past. And to me they are not untouchables.
I live in India !! I know the level of discrimination that exists here. Equalisation of the classes is a tedious process and its even tougher with capitalism. But we're getting there. India is in the true sense of the word
Socialist democratic republic.

You on the other hand I suspect live in some foreign country, and go to China on vacations. Go back to your homeland if its so "ROSY", you deserter!! Live amonst the people and find out the problems that exist at the grassroot level. Then come and shoot off over here about equality,communalism etc.. !!


[edit on 15-11-2004 by Daedalus3]

And please personal bashings not here!!

Guess what everybody? Its time for everybody to STOP with the personal attacks and insults. Please remain on topic and refrain from insulting each other or MORE warns will be handed out.

Thanks
FredT

Originally posted by Hawkssss
lol,

now you are pretending to be a christian. lolol if you are a christian, it is all the better. Indian chritians mostly converted to christianity due to the persecution by the brahmins.

Actually,

Indians began converting to Christianity 2,000 years ago when St Thomas (the "doubting" Thomas) journeyed there after Christ's crucifiction and ascension. He has since been appropriated by Hinduism but at least in India the gov't isn't actively squashing Christianity and its practitioners. Or the likes of Falun Gong.

Absolutely none of which has to do with Taiwan.

Originally posted by aryaputhra

P.S.
if china can invade taiwan why arent they?? aah, lemme guess their military is only good on internet webpages!

It is 21st century and no one wants bloodshed anymore, the Chinese is trying to work things out.

What is your logic? "I won't die from a gunshot because you haven't shot me yet?"

Originally posted by plutonian

It is 21st century and no one wants bloodshed anymore, the Chinese is trying to work things out.

What is your logic? "I won't die from a gunshot because you haven't shot me yet?"

Well Plutonian, in the 21st century it is hard to say 'nobody' wants bloodshed if the current politicos is anything to go by. I would say there are more politically motivated killings going on around the world - in this so called "war against terror" age.

what is my logic? My logic is the chinese are playing a 'bluff' game with Taiwan. They arent going to invade Taiwan because they very well know it will be the end of their communist government. It's just a you blink first I blink later eyeball game. All this muslce flexing and so called "military might" will not work anymore. It is whom you know and count as your allies.

And Taiwan knows its bluff. As todays news shows:

Chen vows to press for UN bid under title of "Taiwan"

Originally posted by aryaputhra

Originally posted by plutonian

It is 21st century and no one wants bloodshed anymore, the Chinese is trying to work things out.

What is your logic? "I won't die from a gunshot because you haven't shot me yet?"

Well Plutonian, in the 21st century it is hard to say 'nobody' wants bloodshed if the current politicos is anything to go by. I would say there are more politically motivated killings going on around the world - in this so called "war against terror" age.

what is my logic? My logic is the chinese are playing a 'bluff' game with Taiwan. They arent going to invade Taiwan because they very well know it will be the end of their communist government. It's just a you blink first I blink later eyeball game. All this muslce flexing and so called "military might" will not work anymore. It is whom you know and count as your allies.

And Taiwan knows its bluff. As todays news shows:

Chen vows to press for UN bid under title of "Taiwan"

Nobody with a right mind, of course, except those people who lost their family from the bombing and willing to do whatever it takes to get it back. Those who against Russia are called "freedom fighters" and the same people against US are called "terrorists", by the same media. But that's off the subject.

That's exactly the point I am trying to make. You do not believe I can shoot you dead even I pointing a gun to your head, you say that I do not have bullets or I would not dare do this, because I will go to jail. That is my understanding of your logic.

US would be stupid to risk everything it has to fight against China and defend Taiwan, as trying to take out the Chinese communist government with enough nukes to destroy the world, trust me, US is going to need to risk everything it has. That's what I mean by "nobody wants bloodshed anymore". US is going to get nothing out of the Taiwan situation unless it could claim Taiwan as a part of US and put a heavy base on it, which is highly unlikely. The US foreign policy hasn't been great lately, its standing in UN is not that stable and it is why it is trying to get Japan a seat. I don't see any benefit for any other country to join this mess, Taiwan doesn't have any nature resources either, and UK just returned Hong Kong to China not too long ago. So US won't risk everything it has for Taiwan, maybe Japan, but not Taiwan.

[edit on 15-11-2004 by plutonian]

And in what event will the US risk everything for Japan? Im not quite sure I understand your comment...Is Japan in danger? Or are you simply stating that the US will risk everything to get Japan a UN security council seat?

From a purely numerical stand point of view (excluding human lives, economics and politics), the PLA is partially bluffing. From what I know:

Currently China has 600 mid range ballistic missiles with conventional warhead, increasing by about hundreds each year, pointing at Taiwan and they are likely the first wave of attack. However, they are not as accurate as the cruise missiles of the US, and the US shoots thousands of missiles to take down Iraq. Furthermore, Taiwan already has PAC 2 acquired from US, and is now working on acquiring PAC 3. Taiwan's defense department has calculated that after acquiring PAC3, the anti-missile coverage of military complex will increase from 30% to 90%, and civilian complex coverage will increase from 20% to 70%. Therefore, the ability for the PLA to take down Taiwan's defense purely by missiles is still in question.

PLA air force also has some advance long range fighter/bomber acquired from Russia, and they will probably get more. However, Taiwan has about 120 F-16, 50 Mirage 2000, and 100 IDF (a fighter developed by Taiwan), and lots of ground to air missiles. Given that Taiwan is not a large area, the coverage is pretty dense...therefore PLA bomber penetration is also in question.

Another thing the PLA can do is use naval blockade of Taiwan's major sea port therefore pressuring Taiwan to surrender. However, to do this, PLA must prevent the possible involvement of US and Japan's naval forces. That is why PLA has bought from Russia some destroyers with super sonic anti ship missiles that is claimed to be capable of sinking US carriers. Also, the PLA has acquire Kilo class nuclear submarines recently from Russia. All this seems to be a signal that they are preparing to prevent intervention from other countries if the war really broke out. However, I don't think their effort is going to be too effective, because US has fighters and bombers stationed in Japan and islands chain near Taiwan. Also, the US carriers are protected by a battle group. And I think US's navy has an upper hand in terms of skillls. Moreover, Taiwan is probably going to buy 12 anti-submarine aircrafts and 8 submarines...so which side will win...I don't know.

Also, Taiwan has at least 3 major cities, if PLA wants to wipe out the cities, 600 missiles won't be enough...they need at least 3 or more nukes...but I doubt they will use nuclear warhead.

So given all these uncertainty, the PLA is certainly bluffing partially. But it seems PLA is seriously trying to make the bluff a reality. Spending lots and lots of money in buying weapons.

[edit on 15-11-2004 by twchang]

[edit on 15-11-2004 by twchang]

8 submarines are to be completed at 2015 if I remember right. Quite a long time. US will not risk large conflicts as I have stated before because of the high costs and dangers associated with large conflicts.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
And in what event will the US risk everything for Japan? Im not quite sure I understand your comment...Is Japan in danger? Or are you simply stating that the US will risk everything to get Japan a UN security council seat?

Not necessarilly an event, but a status, Japan is the only US watch tower in the north region of far east Asia, which has a almost direct access to Russia, NK and China, it defines the US interest and influence in Asia, without it, US will lost control over anyone in Asia, therefore lost their power in UN and world community, and since Eurasia is one continent and America is not a part of it, I think the chance is pretty big.

If Taiwan and Japan both under attack, which one do you think US is going to save or put in priority? What I mean is that if Taiwan get under US's wing, the Taiwanese will be considered to be second-class citizens anyway, no respect of their opinion whatsoever, just sucking their economy dry, that's what Japan is: US's money generating machine. Japan's WWII flip-flop policy didn't give a good impression to the world community, so I wouldn't bet a chip on Japan getting the seat, and US didn't give a damn about the UN's decision in the terrorism war would give US no credit, disregard the financial support from US (capitalists are powerful aren't they?)and its military power, I would say Japan has not much chance, but you never know.

Either way, US won't put their land in danger of radiation because of little Japan, why so different for Taiwan?

Not necessarilly an event, but a status, Japan is the only US watch tower in the north region of far east Asia, which has a almost direct access to Russia, NK and China, it defines the US interest and influence in Asia, without it, US will lost control over anyone in Asia, therefore lost their power in UN and world community, and since Eurasia is one continent and America is not a part of it, I think the chance is pretty big.

Actually the US allies or 'watch towers' for the far east and south east look like this:

• Japan = Far East Asia
  
• South Korea = Far East Asia, PRK and PRC
  
• Australia = Generally to counter anyone from South and Far East Asia
  
• Phillipines = China, Malaysia, Indonesian archipelego
  
• Guam = China, South East Asia
  
• Diego Garcia = South Seas, China and indian subcontinent
  
• Taiwan = a US protectorate for the moment, specifically to keep PRC in check
  
• Kyrzygstan = Central Asia and bordering China. A HUGE air base being built in Manas, Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked country which borders China, and was once virtually inaccessible.
  
  Besides that, the US government has acquired basing or transit rights for passage of warplanes and military supplies from nearly two dozen countries in Central Asia, the Middle East and their periphery, a projection of American power into the center of the Eurasian land mass that has no historical precedent.
  
  So what could be the missions for these bases?
  
  
• To reinforce the status quo: for example the deterrent role of U.S. bases in South Korea, and the intimidating role of many of the U.S. bases which are designed to ensure continued U.S. privileged access and control of the region's commerce and alignment.
  
  
• To encircle enemies: as was the case with the former USSR and China during Cold War, and China to this day. This is a role is particularly emphasized by U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia, Pakistan, Diego Garcia, and in many of the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia.
  
  
• To serve & reinforce the aircraft carriers, destroyers, nuclear armed submarines and other warships of the U.S. Navy. This includes bases in Okinawa, Yokuska outside Tokyo, and "visiting forces" and "access" agreements in the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and many other countries.
  
  
• To train U.S. forces, as was long the case for bombardiers in Vieques and as jungle war fighting and other training which continues in Okinawa.
  
  
• To function as jumping off points for U.S. foreign military interventions as: the cases of Okinawa, the Philippines, now Korea and the new bases in Eastern Europe, Kuwait and likely in Iraq.
  
  
• To facilitate C3I: command, control, communications and intelligence,
  including essential roles in nuclear war fighting, and the use of space for intelligence and warfare as we saw in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. bases in Okinawa, Qatar, Australia and even China serve these functions.
  
  
• To a certain extent, control the governments of host nations. Japan, Korea, Phillipines, Singapore, Taiwan to name but a few.
  

So, if one says the other is bluffing, surely the stronger one with all the ties should be taken seriously. US will definitely NOT instigate a war in the name of Taiwan. However, it will be deeply immature to 'assume' that if China does invade, the US will just sit back as several times US has warned that it will protect Taiwan. And the US will not bluff. If they say it, they mean business. (as in history, the cuban missile crisis proves, US was literally minutes away from a nuclear attack with Russia)

If Taiwan and Japan both under attack, which one do you think US is going to save or put in priority?

If Taiwan and Japan are under a potential attack from PRC, which is highly doubtful as it would certainly mean suicide for the PLA and the communist regime, Japan will certainly get backing first from the US, South Korea, Australia and mostly all nations will condemn such an attack and China will become a pariah state. Why? Since Japan is a global economy and almost ALL countries will be affected by it - including China. In order restore stability, Europe will also intervene which will include, UK's forces.

What I mean is that if Taiwan get under US's wing, the Taiwanese will be considered to be second-class citizens anyway, no respect of their opinion whatsoever, just sucking their economy dry, that's what Japan is US's money generating machine.

This unfortunately, however as much as the PRC might want to interfere, is something the Taiwanes themselves will have to decide. Not the PRC.

If you look at North Korea and South Korea, both countries like to be united but the US will not let them unite.

Originally posted by plutonian

Originally posted by Daedalus3
And in what event will the US risk everything for Japan? Im not quite sure I understand your comment...Is Japan in danger? Or are you simply stating that the US will risk everything to get Japan a UN security council seat?

Not necessarilly an event, but a status, Japan is the only US watch tower in the north region of far east Asia, which has a almost direct access to Russia, NK and China, it defines the US interest and influence in Asia, without it, US will lost control over anyone in Asia, therefore lost their power in UN and world community, and since Eurasia is one continent and America is not a part of it, I think the chance is pretty big.

If Taiwan and Japan both under attack, which one do you think US is going to save or put in priority? What I mean is that if Taiwan get under US's wing, the Taiwanese will be considered to be second-class citizens anyway, no respect of their opinion whatsoever, just sucking their economy dry, that's what Japan is: US's money generating machine. Japan's WWII flip-flop policy didn't give a good impression to the world community, so I wouldn't bet a chip on Japan getting the seat, and US didn't give a damn about the UN's decision in the terrorism war would give US no credit, disregard the financial support from US (capitalists are powerful aren't they?

)and its military power, I would say Japan has not much chance, but you never know.

Either way, US won't put their land in danger of radiation because of little Japan, why so different for Taiwan?

I think there are a few reasons why US helps Taiwan defending against China.
1. to deny China direct access to the pacific ocean, and to protect the strait from falling under China's control (because it is a sea lane for the oil tankers going to Japan)
2. economic interests. Taiwan has strong economic relation with US, especially in electornic and computer sectors.
3. maintain its strong influence in Asia. Just to show that no one can be the aggressor to a democratic nation and dispute its power.

I don't know if this stuff is really important, this is for the US government and people to decide, but so far the US has worked hard to maintain the peace in Taiwan Strait.

I think if both Japan and Taiwan are under attack, US will have priority for Japan. However, Japan has a well trained and well equiped naval and air forces that are quite capable. If US is going to help, it is more likely that Japan and Taiwan defend themselves, and US pounds the source of attack with bombers and missiles, pushing the frontline into the enemy territories.

I don't think Japan is only a money generating machine or a puppet nation of US. The nation clearly has its own agenda. It just so happen now that Japan and US have the same interest.

I don't think China will attack US with nuclear weapon, that would be like suicide because US has a lot more nukes. Nukes from terrorists are more likely....

The reason IMO that China has not attack Taiwan is that china doesn't know what the US response would be. If the US said categorically that they would not intervene I think we'd see the invasion force being assembled right now.