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Can China Invade Taiwan?

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posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 06:06 PM
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There is a need, because frankly many Scots people don’t like being under English rule.


Scotland isn't under English rule, its under UK rule same as England N Ireland and Wales. The Scottish MPs have as much say over English government as over Scottish government. You have the Scottish parliament to determine local issues which is more than England has, in fact out of the four countries only England doesn't have its own local parliament. Although the UK parliament is in England there it represents the whole UK not just English views. Still I think the current situation if fine and if Scotland wants more control the Scottish parliament has powers to raise taxes to pay for them.



[edit on 12-9-2004 by Nacnud]




posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:01 PM
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Originally posted by FredT
Intersting premise. I don't know if the US would only comit 1 CBG to that kind of operation. Not that close to China. If we were talking about Guam maybe, but its too close to home if you know what I mean. I also don't think the Chinese would allow the US to move in and set up drilling. I know the Phillipines claim the islands, anybody else? I could see the US getting drawn into a Phillipines / China conflict, and I think we still have defence treaties with the Phillipines if I am not mistaken.

Edit: the one MEU sounds about right though.

Have you finished your analysis yet? I rember the old Harpoon game and you could custom create scenarios like that. THe Navy actually used it for training for a while.


Actually, the Spratlys are pretty far from China. It's closer to the lower end of Vietnam, and it's still far from there.

Myanalysis is assuming the U.S. is already locked in a huge, violent war with North Korea. My "big picture" premise is saying that China invaded the Spratlys only because the U.S. was embroiled in a big enough of a war. Thus, one CVBG is realistic because let's face it, in a big war, you don't divert your forces away from the big picture. Which, in this case, is North Korea.

Besides, I am also trying to show both the advantages and disadvantages of the CVBG. You can't really show the true characteristics of something unless you get down to the single unit.

As for Harpoon, I am actually using it to create a scenario of a Spratly Islands conflict. The only problem is, this only simulates the air and naval warfare side of things. I would like to simulate a U.S. Marines vs. Chinese infantry, but can't do that.

I ahven't finished my analysis yet. I'm telling it from a history book standpoint, as if these events have already happened, then I will provide an analysis of it later.

One note of warning: the ending may be unsuitable to one of the two sides (obviously). Bear in mind I am not harboring any animosity towards the U.S. or China, I am simply collecting the facts and trying to put them in play. And I may be wrong.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:03 PM
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Originally posted by zcheng
My judgement is just the opposite. China is preparing to take control of outlaying islands of Taiwan. Most strategically is the "Peng Hu" islands.

Spatly Island will not be tackled unless Taiwan issue is already solved.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the Spratlys of more importance to China? I mean what else could be sitting prettier than 200 years worth of oil and natural gas? All untapped!

Taiwan is not a feasible option at this moment. May never be. But the Spratlys are. They are undefended (at least for the moment). A perfect operation for the defense-oriented forces of China.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:08 PM
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Originally posted by zcheng
My judgement is just the opposite. China is preparing to take control of outlaying islands of Taiwan. Most strategically is the "Peng Hu" islands.
Spatly Island will not be tackled unless Taiwan issue is already solved.



This just proves my point. The Middle Kingdom has thier eyes set on more than just Taiwan. No doubt thioer territotial ambitions go way beyond that. Wonder if Zcheng will start spouting propaganda about the ancient claims to the Spatly Islands next



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:12 PM
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Originally posted by FredT
This just proves my point. The Middle Kingdom has thier eyes set on more than just Taiwan. No doubt thioer territotial ambitions go way beyond that. Wonder if Zcheng will start spouting propaganda about the ancient claims to the Spatly Islands next



Acutally, it appears as if China may have a legitimate claim about the Spratlys.

Spratly Islands

Sorry to spoil the fun, but being the oppressors doesn't mean they're wrong.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:18 PM
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FredT,

Other snippets. My analysis takes place in 2012, and while the technology is pretty much the same, etc., I have a fantasy twist by adding a surface action group led by the U.S.S. New Jersey in it's last ever SAG.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:33 PM
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zcheng,

I need help! What will the PLA, PLA/AF, and the PLA/N look like in 2012? Will they have a carrier by then?



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:46 PM
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Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
zcheng,
I need help! What will the PLA, PLA/AF, and the PLA/N look like in 2012? Will they have a carrier by then?


I believe China will not build Carrier before Taiwan issue is solved. In recent 2 years, China is making huge stride in many areas of millitary. The things I can sense are like Strategic ICMBs like DF31, DF41, Nuclear Subs like 93, 94, conventional subs like 39, imported kilos, airplanes like J10, imported Su-27, Su-30, new cruisers like well known 168/9, 170/171. I think all those are components in the eventual carrier fleets.

My guess is: if Taiwan remains as of today by end of 2008, China will have no carrier. If Taiwan is unified, China will have a carrier by 2012. Since Chinese interests are mainly near Chinese coast, and there will be no match with US Carrier fleets in open ocean, Carriers are not the goals of China in the next decade. These interests can well served with existing forces already, if not counting the forces of US, Japan.

The future of Chinese Navy depends on the outcome of Taiwan strait.



[edit on 12-9-2004 by zcheng]



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:57 PM
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Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by zcheng
My judgement is just the opposite. China is preparing to take control of outlaying islands of Taiwan. Most strategically is the "Peng Hu" islands.

Spatly Island will not be tackled unless Taiwan issue is already solved.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the Spratlys of more importance to China? I mean what else could be sitting prettier than 200 years worth of oil and natural gas? All untapped!

Taiwan is not a feasible option at this moment. May never be. But the Spratlys are. They are undefended (at least for the moment). A perfect operation for the defense-oriented forces of China.


In fact, Taiwan currently controls the largest Island ("Tai Ping Dao") in Spratly Islands ( "Nan Sha" in Chinese). When China can control that Island, it can become a strategic millitary base in that region, and guarding Chinese interest.

Compared to Taiwan, Spratly Island is a minor issue. With Taiwan, Chinese navy can have the Pacific as the whole playing field. While with Spratly Islands, Chinese Navy is still confined in Japan, Taiwan, Philipines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Tailand Chain.

All efforts are now on Taiwan. China is even tolerating provocative measures from Vietnam and Philipines. Without US intervention, China can recover Taiwan without to much difficulty. With US intervention, China need to prepare for all-out war with US. I think China is preparing for such possibility.

During the years of attrition with Vietnam, I do not feel much of war in the 80's. But when it is war with US, all will be different.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 08:57 PM
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SMID,

Here is an exclusive pic of the PLA's condition in 2012:

PLA Condition 2012



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:07 PM
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Originally posted by bodebliss
SMID,

Here is an exclusive pic of the PLA's condition in 2012:

PLA Condition 2012


bodebliss, you really should not come on ATS if you're not going to contribute anything meaningful.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:17 PM
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by meaningful you mean?

I posted a lot of links to meaningful earlier.

The spratleys don't stand a chance of falling into Taiwan's hands



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:19 PM
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Originally posted by bodebliss
by meaningful you mean?

I posted a lot of links to meaningful earlier.

The spratleys don't stand a chance of falling into Taiwan's hands


Taiwan???


Yeah, you gotta leave ATS!



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:26 PM
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They claim the Spratleys!



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:28 PM
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Originally posted by bodebliss
They claim the Spratleys!


Taiwan claims the Spratlys? Are you kidding?

Even after you said there's no chance they'll faill into Taiwan's hands?



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:30 PM
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Yeah, they claim them. I don't know the logic, but they do.



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:32 PM
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Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by bodebliss
They claim the Spratleys!


Taiwan claims the Spratlys? Are you kidding?

Even after you said there's no chance they'll faill into Taiwan's hands?


Taiwan does also claim Spratly Islands. As I said in previous post, Taiwan controls the largest islands in Spratly. Taiwan think it inherits whatever belongs to "Republic of China".



posted on Sep, 12 2004 @ 09:38 PM
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Well if that is the case I'm sure the new constitution they're after will clarify that. The problem is in alot of the world there are border flash points that need to be resolved so there are fewer wars.



posted on Sep, 13 2004 @ 12:05 AM
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Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by bodebliss
They claim the Spratleys!


Taiwan claims the Spratlys? Are you kidding?

Even after you said there's no chance they'll faill into Taiwan's hands?


Hey , I am not Taiwan or I would come out w/ independence right now! The Taiwanese are handling well. They are the masters of their own fate.

It is Deng's Legacy that holds the CCP and Taiwan and Hong Kong back. Until they break through the quagmire that holds them in place. They need to be watched.

Bode Bliss



posted on Sep, 13 2004 @ 12:27 AM
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I am also assuming that the U.S. Navy still carries tactical nuclear weapons aboard their vessels (which is highly likely).



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