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Can China Invade Taiwan?

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posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 09:38 AM
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The Taiwanese Army is split over three Islands though. They can easily take out roughly half of their Army, their Navy, etc, without having to hit the internal parts of Taiwan and the "Civilians". It won't have to be like Iraq where they attack building inside a City until they have landed.

As for the Air Force bases? What are a lot of the Nation's going to do? South Korea would not attack China through risk of reprisal later on. Japan although with a strong Air Force and Navy, would not take the risk of the massive missile barrage. Australia might due to the distance. Afganistan has no armed force to help and several other Nations are already looking uneasy about the situation ( I think it's Kyrgyzstan is one of these already only saying they can use the base till Afganistan is done with).

Would you honestly take the risk for your Nation? You also have to remember a ground war is in China's favour and by attacking the Air Force bases it will bring Nation's into a ground war - primarily America and we know massive loss of American life can turn the public against the War (look at Iraq and Vietnam.)

You also have to couple it with the fact the Chinese are moving to have all their borders covered in the S-300 and S-400 Anti-Aircraft and Missile defence system which has shown great promise as well as a range on the 9M96E2 Model being 120km and over Taiwan (which if I remember is only 100km's away) as well as the newer S-500 model which the Russian's have said will have a range of 400km's.




posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 12:17 PM
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Because surely the Chinese will land on Taiwan and have hold of it before the American's will commit to War? The Chinese won't attack the American's first. They'll storm Taiwan all at once and by the time they have all the landing craft ready it'll take less then an hour to cross the strait. Missiles can take out all the communications on Taiwan.


That’s all nice and spiffy except for one little detail; they would never be able to assemble that kind of naval fleet, land and air forces to do that without being notice by US surveillance systems. Therefore we would see it coming and can act instead of having to wait until the Chinese have landed in Taiwan.



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 12:26 PM
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Originally posted by WestPoint23

Because surely the Chinese will land on Taiwan and have hold of it before the American's will commit to War? The Chinese won't attack the American's first. They'll storm Taiwan all at once and by the time they have all the landing craft ready it'll take less then an hour to cross the strait. Missiles can take out all the communications on Taiwan.


That’s all nice and spiffy except for one little detail; they would never be able to assemble that kind of naval fleet, land and air forces to do that without being notice by US surveillance systems. Therefore we would see it coming and can act instead of having to wait until the Chinese have landed in Taiwan.


Act before what?

They can move it from several points, fairly spaced out and still get there in quick time. Also China has several bases near the area as well as already a large portion of men and missles and have said they would be building up in the region just encase Taiwan does declare Indepence. They also plan to open bases in and around the Bonins, Guam, Marianas, and Palau islands as well as Myanmar, Burma. (Sea of Bengal).

They would still get to act first, unless Taiwan declares Independence and unless they do it soon. China will have the capability to land on Taiwan in roughly an hour. As well as having thousands of planes in the air.

You can't attack the ships by air, while you are busy fighting off anti-aircraft missiles and other aeroplanes.

They at present have bases in, Zhoushan, Xiangshan, Wusong (Shanghai), Wenzhou, Fuzhou, and Xiamen which is all around that region and all part of the East Sea Fleet which is set up to "deal" with Taiwan now.



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 02:43 PM
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Originally posted by Odium
The Taiwanese Army is split over three Islands though. They can easily take out roughly half of their Army, their Navy, etc, without having to hit the internal parts of Taiwan and the "Civilians". It won't have to be like Iraq where they attack building inside a City until they have landed.

How could it "easily" take out half of it?


As for the Air Force bases? What are a lot of the Nation's going to do? South Korea would not attack China through risk of reprisal later on. Japan although with a strong Air Force and Navy, would not take the risk of the massive missile barrage. Australia might due to the distance. Afganistan has no armed force to help and several other Nations are already looking uneasy about the situation ( I think it's Kyrgyzstan is one of these already only saying they can use the base till Afganistan is done with).

Any attack by the chinese on any soverign country is an act of war, if the target is another countries base it doesnt matter. Could you imagine the retailitory response?




Would you honestly take the risk for your Nation? You also have to remember a ground war is in China's favour and by attacking the Air Force bases it will bring Nation's into a ground war - primarily America and we know massive loss of American life can turn the public against the War (look at Iraq and Vietnam.)

To defend people who were just trying to be free?
Yeah I would.
A ground war is only in chinas favour IF the enemy does not have air superiority and does not have better weapons and training.



You also have to couple it with the fact the Chinese are moving to have all their borders covered in the S-300 and S-400 Anti-Aircraft and Missile defence system which has shown great promise as well as a range on the 9M96E2 Model being 120km and over Taiwan (which if I remember is only 100km's away) as well as the newer S-500 model which the Russian's have said will have a range of 400km's.

China has 0 S-400, it has S-300's but not S-400s.

Odium, you seem to think that ships see all, they dont.
Hence why they have close range guns, so they can stop any missiles from the planes they dont see.
Hence why the sunburn is such a deadly weapon.


[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 02:59 PM
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Response by who?

Afganistan's army?
South Korea?
Japan?

I assume you think NATO or the U.N. would get involved? At the present state, NATO really is not what it used to be. The British Military is already involved in a conflict and this could lead to us being over-stretched as well as the time it would take to get carrier groups there to help. France also might join in, but then a lot of Nations need China for trade especailly the U.K. (news.bbc.co.uk... and uk.news.yahoo.com... )

They can't respond because it would cause the whole area to errupt including North Korea and Russia.

And how many missiles do they have poiting at Taiwan?
500? 600? Isn't it going up to 1000 by 2012? That's enough to take care of those two islands and the forces there as well as any Air bases and or Naval bases in Taiwan. It's probably enough to destroy every inch of Taiwan it's a small Island. (394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide )

How would they get near the Chinese ships?

China already has two Air Craft divisions near Taiwan with the ability to have 4 in the region in less then an hour. 4 Division... (Division (military), a unit typically consisting of from 10,000 to 20,000 troops. )

The Nimitz on the other hand has how many air craft? 85?
en.wikipedia.org...

Even if only 1/10th of the Chinese division can fly, that's still 1000 to 2000 people in the air, per-division. By the time they attack Taiwan they will have air superiority. ( I don't deny the American's have better aeroplanes but the numbers are against them) and it would result in the loss of two Nimitz class air craft carriers very early on. (Within a matter of hours before the other air-craft had got there or any land force.)

Even if America get involved, they can't use the bases till they get the O.K. from those Nations to attack China which will take time.

So you have two carrier groups maybe 4/5 submarines, the Taiwanese Navy, Air Force and Land Force which are split over three Islands. Two of which are military only.

Logically, the Chinese will blits the boat yards, two Islands and Air fields. There submarines are nearly on the same level as the American's and the new version looks to me to be on the same level (from the specs that have been seen).

Taiwan would be theres in less then an hour. Once it is, it will be so hard to take back.

Edit:

I say S-300/400 because it's inbetween them. The Chinese use their own advanced version of the S-300 but have shown interest in upgrading to the 400/500.

[edit on 17/8/2005 by Odium]



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 04:05 PM
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Originally posted by Odium
Response by who?

Afganistan's army?
South Korea?
Japan?

The rest of the world mabye?


I assume you think NATO or the U.N. would get involved? At the present state, NATO really is not what it used to be. The British Military is already involved in a conflict and this could lead to us being over-stretched as well as the time it would take to get carrier groups there to help. France also might join in, but then a lot of Nations need China for trade especailly the U.K. (news.bbc.co.uk... and uk.news.yahoo.com... )

We do not NEED it, we just prefer it.
The UK military is stretched, but far from over stretched.
NATO may not be what it used to be but it is still a powerful force.


They can't respond because it would cause the whole area to errupt including North Korea and Russia.

Yeah they can and would have to respond otherwise china would become a bigger threat to everyone.


And how many missiles do they have poiting at Taiwan?
500? 600? Isn't it going up to 1000 by 2012? That's enough to take care of those two islands and the forces there as well as any Air bases and or Naval bases in Taiwan. It's probably enough to destroy every inch of Taiwan it's a small Island. (394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide )

Thing is though, they would not destroy the island nor the people on it?
Why? They are still chinese.


How would they get near the Chinese ships?

Fly in low, simple tactic.


China already has two Air Craft divisions near Taiwan with the ability to have 4 in the region in less then an hour. 4 Division... (Division (military), a unit typically consisting of from 10,000 to 20,000 troops. )

Wait your trying to say that china has over 80,000 aircraft near taiwan....
No your thining idioticly my friend..


A typical air defense regiment has three squadrons of three flights; each flight has three or four aircraft. Each air division has 70 to 124 fighter planes or 70 to 90 bombers.

But...


Class-A combat regiments accounted for 95 percent of the total number of combat regiments, with 74% of pilots trained in all-weather flight. About half of all flight and air defense units are Category B units, equipped with old armaments and not receiving much training

So china is willing to use every class A unit to secure an island , and leave its country defenceless?


The Nimitz on the other hand has how many air craft? 85?
en.wikipedia.org...

Now acording to your information that would mean they had 540 aircraft ready to deploy in less than one hour....
544 fighters in the air all at once and you suspect them to "sneak up" on a US task force?




Even if only 1/10th of the Chinese division can fly, that's still 1000 to 2000 people in the air, per-division. By the time they attack Taiwan they will have air superiority. ( I don't deny the American's have better aeroplanes but the numbers are against them) and it would result in the loss of two Nimitz class air craft carriers very early on. (Within a matter of hours before the other air-craft had got there or any land force.)

Mabye if they used 6 divisions on 2 aircraft carriers yeah but 6 divisions????
Thats 544 aircraft? WTH did you 6 divisions from?


Even if America get involved, they can't use the bases till they get the O.K. from those Nations to attack China which will take time.

Its US airbases , not the countries.


So you have two carrier groups maybe 4/5 submarines, the Taiwanese Navy, Air Force and Land Force which are split over three Islands. Two of which are military only.

Logically, the Chinese will blits the boat yards, two Islands and Air fields. There submarines are nearly on the same level as the American's and the new version looks to me to be on the same level (from the specs that have been seen).

Taiwan would be theres in less then an hour. Once it is, it will be so hard to take back.
[/qoute]
How will the submarines be destroyed?
Mabye if they used every anti sub unit they had they might do that but come on..


Edit:

I say S-300/400 because it's inbetween them. The Chinese use their own advanced version of the S-300 but have shown interest in upgrading to the 400/500.

[edit on 17/8/2005 by Odium]

That is still not an S-400...as you claimed.



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 04:28 PM
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Originally posted by devilwasp
Any attack by the chinese on any soverign country is an act of war, if the target is another countries base it doesnt matter. Could you imagine the retailitory response?

What countries have bases in Taiwan??
And what countries is China going to attack?
Taiwan itself is not a soverign country either. Its status now is the so called "status quo."



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 04:41 PM
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Originally posted by Taishyou
What countries have bases in Taiwan??


Bases in taiwan???
Now you've got me puzzled.


And what countries is China going to attack?

Acording to a few members , everyone under the sun.


Taiwan itself is not a soverign country either. Its status now is the so called "status quo."

Yes its a state of china , I've been through this before I did not say that taiwan was a soverign state!



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 07:32 PM
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Oh no, that's not the Chinese Air Force.

That's the Air Wing of their Navy.

You also have to think for China this is an all or nothing moment, they either throw everything in the region at it or do not because a weak invasion results in a massive loss of life for them.

Within 400KM of Taiwan they have: Fuzhou, Jinjiang, Longtian, Luqiao,
Shantou Northeast, Zhangzhou. Within 800KM of Taiwan they have 36 air bases. www.fas.org...

As for number of air craft? Nobody knows. In 1972 they had over 4000. www.fas.org...

www.chinatoday.com... says they have roughly 3000 at the present moment as well as 63 sub-marines. That's how the Taiwan strait would be taken care of.

Once a submarine fires they give themselves away, meaning the would outnumber the American's and Taiwanese under there as well. Giving them easy ability to do a massive amount of damage.

"Today, the PLA Air Force consists of 330,000 personnel, operating some 3,500 aircraft, over 1,000 surface-to-air missile systems, and several thousand anti-aircraft artillery. As a result of China’s ongoing force reduction and military modernisation, the size of the PLA Air Force has been decreasing since the mid-1980s, with most of its obsolete aircraft based on the 1950s-era Soviet designs being retired from service."
www.sinodefence.com...

That's enough to deal a crushing blow to the American forces and that's the numbers the Chinese "give out". They won't be that stupid to tell everyone. They'll keep it hidden and probably have a much higher number than that.

And they would have to ask for host Nation about using the base against China:

""The air base at Manas will stay as long as the situation in Afghanistan requires," Defense Mminister, General Major Ismail Isakov said."
news.yahoo.com...

That's just Afganistan, so that's another air-force base they have to ask permission to use. They can't break agreements with these Nations just to attack China they have to get permission.

Did nobody take notes from the Korean War? The American's had much better equipment and well...X-Corp?

Some aspects of the Chinese military were using swords and single shot rifles, until they could loot the American's. There was a much larger difference in technology then, then there is now.

Also really, if they are going to invade they need to kill off the ground troops. Chinese or not... the Chinese will know it will have to be a quick smack to get Taiwan and too it and hold out from there. With tens-of-thousands of missiles in their Nation, it is in their favour. With the problems between Korea (South and North) it is in their problem. Kim is a psycho and is waiting for the chance if South Korea got involved that would be it.

If several air bases begin to be used from near by Nations the Chinese will bomb the air bases. Common sense says they would. Especailly as you said, they are American.

Kyrgyzstan wants them out once the mission in Afganistan is done.

"Rumsfeld's meetings here followed a call earlier this month for a timetable on the withdrawal of US forces from bases in the region by Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, China and Russia."

So they are having, less and less air-bases to use as time goes on. China are waiting for this reason alone and if it happens well Iraq is going on, I don't think they have a choice but to not invade.

If they do it will only help fill the ranks of the terrorists and Iraq will easily result in a Civil War as well as possible larger wars in the Middle East against what some Nations see as Puppet's to America (especailly if Iran has Nuclear Weapons soon.)



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 09:11 PM
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Originally posted by devilwasp


And what countries is China going to attack?

Acording to a few members , everyone under the sun.

Uh... no, I don't think China is going for the status of "the sun never sets on the Chinese empire"

On the other hand if you mean attack military units of many countries that may station in Taiwan, that doesn't count as an attack on the country, because that unit is in disputed territory, not its own territory.

I may be wrong but you don't have to declare war in order to attack military units of another country that is in disputed/unclaimed territory. But only if you declare war can you send your military into their territory. Of course, attacking units that are not in their own territory still provokes them to declare war on you.

But my point is, China can attack Taiwan and any foreign units stationed in Taiwan without declaring war since technically it's not invading their territory, but, foreign units stationed in Taiwan cannot attack China unless they declare war. Without declaration, they can only defend Taiwan and not attack.

Some people mentioned attacking targets in mainland China, that's why I brought this up. Are they expecting this PRC-Taiwan war to expand into something like WWIII? Cos nobody is going to attack China unless they declare war, and once they declare war it's going to get really serious, who's going to bother fighting a major war with China just for a little island that has nothing to do with them? Most likely it's going to be a small scale war centered on Taiwan with maybe a few countries defending the island while PLA attacks, and nobody does any strikes on mainland China.

[edit on 17-8-2005 by Taishyou]



posted on Aug, 17 2005 @ 11:23 PM
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hh.. but thts something nobody can predict.. escalation of the war.. Ithe allied(US) forces find it extremely difficult to remove the entrenched chinese from taiwan then engaging china in a pincer war may be the only option..
It depends on how much taiwan means to the allies(US)



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 02:32 AM
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Originally posted by devilwasp

They have those skills, are you trying to imply that they dont?


yes i am. they dont train for long endurance flights





Yeah, but look at what its made up of..
Hardly top of the line stuff, the strategy of massive numbers can be easily defeated, Master sun explains it well in "the art of war".


umm. world class vessels




No rotateing pilots, I never said they would need to fly for 24 hours.


and how are 2 crews going to fit in a F-16 or rafale?





The trade deals?


they dont have a pertnership




No they dont, any land that the US is based own, they own.
Hence why normal authorities have no juristriction inside the land.



are you sure? i thought that was only in guantanamo bay

[edit on 18-8-2005 by chinawhite]



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 02:34 AM
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Originally posted by devilwasp

No, its never too late, it takes days and sometimes weeks to get a campeign won. The taiwanese I have no doubt would make em pay for every inch.


not when they dont stock up on AAMs. there was a report that said they only have 120ARRAM



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 02:36 AM
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Originally posted by WestPoint23

That’s all nice and spiffy except for one little detail; they would never be able to assemble that kind of naval fleet, land and air forces to do that without being notice by US surveillance systems. Therefore we would see it coming and can act instead of having to wait until the Chinese have landed in Taiwan.


i dont think you know how much sihps and people pass through the taiwan strait or how much movement on chinas coast.



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 02:44 AM
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Originally posted by devilwasp

The rest of the world mabye?


to help a country that they dont have formal relations with.? only a small handful of countries in the pacific have diplomatic relations with taiwan




We do not NEED it, we just prefer it.
The UK military is stretched, but far from over stretched.
NATO may not be what it used to be but it is still a powerful force.


and germany france are willing to help?




Yeah they can and would have to respond otherwise china would become a bigger threat to everyone.


america is the biggest threat to russia.



Thing is though, they would not destroy the island nor the people on it?
Why? They are still chinese.


thats right. they are chinese.






Wait your trying to say that china has over 80,000 aircraft near taiwan....
No your thining idioticly my friend..


paratroopers




So china is willing to use every class A unit to secure an island , and leave its country defenceless?


from who else? russia-no vietnam-no korea-no india-no



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 02:56 AM
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Originally posted by devilwasp

How could it "easily" take out half of it?


the whole taiwanese army is not sttioned in taiwan itself. they are on three other islands taiwan controls. roughly half the army are stationed there.

look at the red circles on my map


those are the islands taiwan controls. the PENGHU islands are the traditinal invasion platform to invade taiwan.



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 03:18 AM
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According to estimates, the forces available to the PLA for the invasion of Taiwan include about 50,000 troops of the 31st Group Army deployed in Nanjing Military Region. The PLA could reshuffle in a short period some of the “Rapid Reaction Forces” of other military regions, which along with strategic reserves would bring perhaps another 250,000 troops to the area, according to estimates of the Taiwan Ministry of Defense. Naval forces, including submarines and motorized fishing vessels, could establish a sea blockade. Naval units could lay mines over the peripheral waters of Taiwan proper and the offshore islands, while concentrating amphibious landing craft transporting one reinforced division to conduct a regular landing operation. Or motorized fishing vessels could carry up to 350,000 light infantry to undertake an irregular landing operation. At the 13 military-civilian airports within 250 NM from the Taiwan proper, the PRC's Air Force could station up to 1,200 combat aircraft and maneuver five dozen air transports to carry one airborne division for an operational mission. The DF-15 (M-9) and DF-21 could directly attack key political, economical, and military targets.

www.globalsecurity.org...



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 03:21 AM
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Dunno there Fred-T, only 172K viewers?, your losing touch I'd say (snicker).

Dallas



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 03:25 AM
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also i would like to add. that china conducts at least one military exercise every year. in the past 5years china has conducted 10 of them.

the build-up of forces could be just another military exercise.



posted on Aug, 18 2005 @ 03:26 AM
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Originally posted by Dallas

Dunno there Fred-T, only 172K viewers?, your losing touch I'd say (snicker).

Dallas


Dallas Im amazed each day. this thread is like the road runner, it just won't go down



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