Can China Invade Taiwan?

Originally posted by ulshadow
ok devilwasp, fine that missle is the most advance missle in the world. there i said it, happy now. now lets move on.

Hey calm man just pointing out a few facts.

Originally posted by devilwasp
Hey calm man just pointing out a few facts.

Facts that has never been proven yet... in real combat

[edit on 10-8-2005 by ulshadow]

Originally posted by AtheiX
No country in the world acknowledges Taiwan, but most conduct trade with it.

Actually, several countries extend diplomatic recognition to Taiwan.

For this reason the PRC conducts an "aid" war in which it either gives massive amounts of aid to small nations to induce them to drop their recognition of Taiwan, or drops its aid grants to those that announce recognition of Taiwan.

Originally posted by devilwasp

Originally posted by Daedalus3
hmmm.. You got to get that Su chi lady to power in Burma before hoping for any US help. Burma is a commie dictatorship..

Thats a contradiction.

Actually, it's a military dictatorship and he's referring to Nobel laureat Aung San Suu-Kyi, elected leader of Burma, but imprisoned by the military dictatorship of Than Shwe and Soe Winn, and daughter of independence hero Aung San.

And where's the contradiciton in America demanding a change of regime from a commie (sic) dictatorship to a democracy before it helps out a nation?

Originally posted by HowlrunnerIV
Actually, it's a military dictatorship and he's referring to Nobel laureat Aung San Suu-Kyi, elected leader of Burma, but imprisoned by the military dictatorship of Than Shwe and Soe Winn, and daughter of independence hero Aung San.

And where's the contradiciton in America demanding a change of regime from a commie (sic) dictatorship to a democracy before it helps out a nation?

I am saying that a "commie" regime cant exist.
Infact a "commie" state cant exist ethier.

Originally posted by ulshadow


Facts that has never been proven yet... in real combat

[edit on 10-8-2005 by ulshadow]

No But the facts like speed and current technology dont change.

[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

Originally posted by twchang
If I remember correctly, Taiwan currently has about 140 F-16s, 60 Mirage 2000s, 100 IDFs and other fighters, which is sufficient for now. Some pilots went to US for training or studying in air force programs...so I guess their ability won't be too bad.

But they lack missiles. IIRC they only have 120 AMRAAMs.
I saw this from some article but can't find it anymore... now where did it go...

EDIT: well I didn't exactly find the one I was looking for but here's a substitute
www.strategypage.com...
It didn't talk about the AMRAAMs, but did mention Taiwan has 900 Sidewinders (that's actually still not a lot considering the PLAAF has thousands of fighters, bombers, attackers, etc). And those Sidewinders won't help them against R-77 and SD-10 armed fighters.

[edit on 10-8-2005 by Taishyou]

Isreal, japan, carrier groups, India, russia,south korea, burma, etc etc

Ok, when it comes to politics, remember that politicians rarely base their decisions on ethics. They base their decisions on national interest and what they have to gain. This is why the US is so concerned about Taiwan while most other countries don't give a damn.

What is the US interested in Taiwan? Well, Taiwan is a good foothold for US influence in the SE Asia region, and a potential proxy state to ring perhaps their biggest rival, China, with their military bases.

What other countries want a foothold of power on Taiwan? As far as I know, none. Even if they wanted it, the US is gonna get it anyway since they already have the most influence on the island.

As of now the US is probably #1 in the world in terms of power, and they want to stay that way. China has real potential to rival the US, so the US regards China as a threat. Other countries that are not #1 have no reason to make China their rival since they don't have the #1 trophy that China plans to snatch in the first place.

South Korea might even need China's diplomatic relations with the DPRK to cool them down. Russia needs China to buy their military hardware in order to make some money. Many countries in the world depend on trade and cheap labour with China to help their economy. They have nothing to gain by getting involved in the PRC-Taiwan business, maybe some to lose, but nothing to gain. Therefore they won't be interested to jump into this mess.

[edit on 10-8-2005 by Taishyou]

I wouldnt be so sure, I mean haveing the worlds only super power as your friend....also I'm sure the US would "invest" in their countries..

It's not like the US is going to make them enemies if they don't join the fight. Lots of US allies didn't participate in the initial invasion of Iraq. Nothing big happened between their relations. Some Americans renamed French fries "freedom fries," so what, France is still a friend of the US. Here in Canada we got some complaints from some angry right wingers about not getting involved in Iraq but that's about it. Everything else goes on normally like nothing happened.

Besides, if those allies of the US go against China, they may lose whatever advantages they may gain from China. Sure they may retain some advantages from the US, but it'd be better if they lose none of their advantages from either country. The US is not going to do much to them if they don't join in fights.

Originally posted by Taishyou
But they lack missiles. IIRC they only have 120 AMRAAMs.
I saw this from some article but can't find it anymore... now where did it go...

EDIT: well I didn't exactly find the one I was looking for but here's a substitute
www.strategypage.com...
It didn't talk about the AMRAAMs, but did mention Taiwan has 900 Sidewinders (that's actually still not a lot considering the PLAAF has thousands of fighters, bombers, attackers, etc). And those Sidewinders won't help them against R-77 and SD-10 armed fighters.

[edit on 10-8-2005 by Taishyou]

Indeed, I posted a link to Taipei Times a few month ago in which the author indicates that Taiwan lacks ammunitions, counter measures etc. But that doesn't mean that Taiwan's air force is "small." I don't think the problem is extremely seriously though because Taiwan also has domestically made mid range AA missiles (called sky-sword or sky-bow I think), good old Sparrows, French made AA missiles, and surface to air missiles. In any case, with some increase and adjustment in military budget, this problems should be easily resolved. The worst that could happens is the military not noticing the problem (which would be stupid) or the pan-blue keep blocking defense bills.

US just allows Taiwan to purchase AMRAAMs recently. So I think they will get more sooner or later. Taiwan should also try to improve the "software" such as communication, AWAC and electronic warfare to increase the chance of winning of air supremecy I think.


[edit on 10-8-2005 by twchang]

Originally posted by twchang
In any case, with some increase and adjustment in military budget, this problems should be easily resolved. The worst that could happens is the military not noticing the problem (which would be stupid) or the pan-blue keep blocking defense bills.

It's not a small problem that can be fixed with "some" increase in budget. The PLA is growing dramatically. And it has the capacity to grow at a much faster rate than Taiwan's military. The longer the PRC waits the better the military balance will be for them. Its economy is bigger, its people more numerous, it has more factories, and its armed forces are larger. Notice I said better, not decisive. When war become so complicated politically, it's hard to get decisive.

Taiwan has to keep this in mind. "Can China Invade Taiwan TODAY" and "Can China Invade Taiwan TOMORROW" are very different questions.

Originally posted by devilwasp

Is it?
Ever heard of tankers?

do you know how far it is from japan proper to taiwan.

Who needs it to help, only need to use bases in it.

go and try

How do you know?

because they stated that they are neatural in the war

Really?

yes

Depends on the term friend. Germany was a british "friend" before WW1.

huh.?

Yet again there is no such thing as too far away.

yes there is. its called fatique

Originally posted by FredT

:shk: really now chinawhite this is not up to your usual level of propaganda. Japan does have the KC-767A Tanker and can easily use US KC-135 and KC-10's to fuel its F-2's and F-15's etc.

im quite aware of the ranges of these planes. im saying this because of the fatique these pilots will be under.

Originally posted by LemonAide

It's not a small problem that can be fixed with "some" increase in budget. The PLA is growing dramatically.

I was referring to the lack of ammunition problems, not the whole "can Taiwan stop China's invasion" problem.

And it has the capacity to grow at a much faster rate than Taiwan's military. The longer the PRC waits the better the military balance will be for them. Its economy is bigger, its people more numerous, it has more factories, and its armed forces are larger. Notice I said better, not decisive. When war become so complicated politically, it's hard to get decisive.

Taiwan has to keep this in mind. "Can China Invade Taiwan TODAY" and "Can China Invade Taiwan TOMORROW" are very different questions.

Yea, in the long term, Taiwan's military can not compete with China's military, if nothing special happens. And actually, they don't have to compete with China, they just have to improve itself to make invasion difficult. And you said before that China uses Taiwan as side show, so why do Taiwan needs to compete.

Notice that Taiwan's military are "defensive" in nature and therefore Taiwan doesn't have to start an arm race with China or compete with other nations militarily. What Taiwan needs is an well trained and equiped military forces that are capable of protecting Taiwan and poses a credible threat to the invaders. And Taiwan is a small place, therefore fortification is cheaper.

There are many small nations on earth, every one of them has military forces of some kind, and although they are small, no one invade them now adays.

[edit on 11-8-2005 by twchang]

Originally posted by HowlrunnerIV


Actually, several countries extend diplomatic recognition to Taiwan.

For this reason the PRC conducts an "aid" war in which it either gives massive amounts of aid to small nations to induce them to drop their recognition of Taiwan, or drops its aid grants to those that announce recognition of Taiwan.

thoses are small pacific island countries. still countries but very small

Originally posted by ulshadow


So china will not attack if someone else attack first? Didn't china said that they will attack taiwan if taiwan declear indepedence? this proves that china will attack taiwan first, since taiwan will not drop any bombs if it declear indepedence First. every inch... a lot of people will die if you do that and it's not good for china's image.

taiwan is not a country it is a state of china. you dont even know what your talking about

Thats like nothing let see 35 x 50 = 1750... thats so little i was hoping they have 1400 "mini-ships" to drop off 70,000 troops in the first wave, well at least 70,000

china has large transports not small ones

You sure? china's air force seems pretty sucky, only a few like good planes and i think taiwan have better pilots than china. china will have more planes.

As a whole chinas airforce is obsolete. but china has 300-400 4th gen fighters.

China can if she want to, but is she willing to risk it? Doing this might start a all out war with the US, all the cities... do you know how many lives will be lost if you destory every city in taiwan? millions and that would not be pretty

who needs to destroy taiwans cities? roughly 49-50% of taiwanese support unification/status quo

Originally posted by chinawhite

Originally posted by ulshadow


So china will not attack if someone else attack first? Didn't china said that they will attack taiwan if taiwan declear indepedence? this proves that china will attack taiwan first, since taiwan will not drop any bombs if it declear indepedence First. every inch... a lot of people will die if you do that and it's not good for china's image.

taiwan is not a country it is a state of china. you dont even know what your talking about

And yet, by your response to my earlier post, you acknowledge that several natons do , in fact, recognise the nationhood of Taiwan.

(Size matters not. Judge small green Jedi Masters by their size, do you?)

And the PRC has repeatedly said it will use force to reunify (re-unify!] Taiwan with the mainland (arguments over wording will no doubt follow promptly!!). Most recently the PRC passed a law giving it the right to invade Taiwan if the island unilaterally declares independence.
If Taiwan was a state of China why would China need such a law?
Is such force going to be the mighty art of Ecky-thump? Or is it going to be the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF?

And who the hell want to serve in a navy that belongs to the Army? The US army had to give up ownership of the air force half a century ago. The Royal Airforce has been a distinct entity for over eighty years.

Originally posted by chinawhite
im quite aware of the ranges of these planes. im saying this because of the fatique these pilots will be under.

Fatique? It's what 2 or 3 hours between japan/seoul and taiwan. Neither Japan nor Seoul has any interest in angering the PRC and risk either widening the war or creating longer term hatreds. Why send your own troups to weaken the PRC when American lives are available?

Originally posted by HowlrunnerIV

And yet, by your response to my earlier post, you acknowledge that several natons do , in fact, recognise the nationhood of Taiwan.

they reconize taiwan as the rightful government of mainland china. some of them reconize taiwan as a soverign nation

Most recently the PRC passed a law giving it the right to invade Taiwan if the island unilaterally declares independence.
If Taiwan was a state of China why would China need such a law?
Is such force going to be the mighty art of Ecky-thump? Or is it going to be the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF?

the Anti-Secession Law. check what it means.

Originally posted by twchang

Originally posted by LemonAide
Taiwan has to keep this in mind. "Can China Invade Taiwan TODAY" and "Can China Invade Taiwan TOMORROW" are very different questions.

Yea, in the long term, Taiwan's military can not compete with China's military, if nothing special happens. And actually, they don't have to compete with China, they just have to improve itself to make invasion difficult. And you said before that China uses Taiwan as side show, so why do Taiwan needs to compete.

I was refering to the balance of power, not competing to become a superpower. An F-16 today might be worth 5 or 6 J-7's (pick your number and aircraft) so Taiwan has sufficient aircraft, pilots, mechanics, airfields, etc. to meet China's airforce and deny the PLAAF airsuperiority. If we change the number of top-of-the line J-10's so that the PRC can field 5 or 6 times (again making up numbers) the number as Taiwan's F-16's, then pilots, airfields, mechanics, etc. will become become scarce. If Taiwan looses airsuperiority, the knock-on effects for its Navy and Army become bad.....Same can be said for ships, submarines, etc.

What Taiwan needs to think about for the future is that as the PRC's ability to make war increases, how much of its economy does it want to devote to maintaining its military? Maintaining and training for war is a full time job. Does it make more sense for its people to make a permanent peace with the PRC? We've seen with the Cold war that a war can be won without direct confrontation. BTW, I get a from some of the discussions on this forum. So many people have forgotten what the cold war taught us it seems.

In my personal opinion, the PRC will never accept Taiwan as a country. Being friends with the US doesn't count for much in the long run when you have this massive giant within a stone's throw of your shores. Taiwan needs to talk peace and try to make the best deal for itself as a part of China. I would even go so far as to suggest the PRC might accept a special democratic province of Taiwan. The people who say the "commies" won't accept that are too narrow minded in my opinion.

Notice that Taiwan's military are "defensive" in nature and therefore Taiwan doesn't have to start an arm race with China or compete with other nations

I always laugh at that one. To some people even the PLA is a "defensive" force. It has just sufficient capability to fight locally; not very far from its borders. It must be a defensive force.............