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Can China Invade Taiwan?

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posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 01:22 PM
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Originally posted by AtheiX

Originally posted by puri
I don't know for sure CHina has enough logistic support to take Taiwan.
China does not have the logistics to transport its forces to Taiwan. Few transport ships and few transport planes.


-------I don't know if you have counted China's hundreds of thousands of fishing boats, container liners and oil tankers, plus hundreds of amphybian tanks, thousands of speedboads, several devisions of paratroops, several devisions of amphebious marine corps, hundreds of armed choopers, individually winged special units, and submarines (for sending in commandos). If I were the commander of the Pacific fleet, I would definitely reakon them as a formidable logistic force.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by puri]

[edit on 1-8-2005 by puri]




posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 05:55 PM
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Originally posted by puri
China can invade Taiwan any time, but is unlikely to do that soon. There has been no balance of arms between the straits since mid-90's. Now China has the capability of wipe out organized resistances in in Taiwan in 36 hour. Most of the Taiwan fighter jets (Even those hide in caves), communications, power, water, port facilities, base, rader networks, would be knocked out within the first few hours of the war. Any large troops would be destroyed by deadly bombs only next to full-fledged NK bomb.
The US military might is a concern, but is not the biggest fact for China in deciding if and when to draw the guns. China had fought direct or indirect wars with the US, and never lost one. In addition, China has been watching US military adventures around the world for many year, and has draw the conclusion that the US can only win the insymitrical wars like in Iraq and Afganistan. If the US does intervine, China will make sure that the war is fought on equal footing, or let's say any American aircraft or missile would no longer be invisible, and NK strikes would be answered and retaliated. China is almost there, not 100%, but close.
The US still have many advanced weapons that China doesn't have, but China also has a number of Assassin's maces that the American don't even know.
To bad that Taiwan may bring China and the US into a major conflict that could lead the world into a dark age. Don't know who is wrong and who is right, that can only be judge by results.
China IS capable of taking Taiwan anytime from now, but the country has a habit of always preparing for the worst, that's why it's military, especially the NK capability keeps growing fast.
Many people like to quote "China menace". But few like to admit that China has its own security concerns (Taiwan being the biggest one). Now the US "defencive arms" is right on China's door step, but few would bother to ask how Chinese feel. If there is such a menace, then that is exclusively targeted at Taiwan independent forces and possible foreign interventions, not the other peaceful neighbors.
The US has a agenda, to pitch China and Japan against each other, every educated Chinese know about it. Is it going to work? don't know. After all, Chinese does hate Japanese. To the US, Japan is just a tained dog, but I bet no one can be sure if Japan will turn into wolf again.
If China fought with Japan over Taiwan issue, I am sure it would be a fight that can only have one survivor. China would use NK if she felt that the war could not be won by conventional ways. Then the ball would be in the US's court, should they give JPs NKs? I guess yes. But I doubt Japan could survive, while China probably can.
NMD&TMD? to me, they don't have much weight at this stage. The theory of using bullets to hit bullets is foundamentally flawed. The future laser weapons will be far more effective. Fortunately, China lead the US in this area for 3 or 5 years. When laser weapons systems are widely in use in both the US and China, both will get new headaches, the American's more serious - the value of their NK deterance will be seriously discounted.

I wish the US and China never fight each other again. If the war started, it would not be possible to controll the duration and scale, not even the US. If the US think they can just copy the strategy and tactics in Iraq and Yugoslavia and win a air campain against China, they will be making a huge mistake. The US will find their satelite down, Aircraft carriers sunk, planes lost in the most dense air-defence fire ever in human history, and Taiwan will fall - it's just less than 150 miles from China and can't walk away.

Puri
----from China







If China and the U.S. went to war right now (notice I emphasize right now), the Chinese would find themselves blown back to the stone age. If you think the Chinese would be able to sink U.S. carriers and bring down U.S. aircraft that easily, you've got some serious researching to do.

I do not know why people automatically assume that the U.S., with the world's best and most highly-trained military, would lose in such a scenario to a country that lacks the infrastructure to even support such a war, and the training, and the technology.

And the U.S. has its own security to worry about, as well, as well as that of Taiwan and Japan. So when a communist nation like China starts building up its military, the U.S. takes notice. In case you haven't noticed, the Chinese have a history of being willing to use military force to achieve their aims. So when such a gov't starts building in military power, nations take notice.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by EngineMan2145]



posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 05:56 PM
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Why would an army use fishing boats in war? lol



posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 06:03 PM
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Originally posted by ulshadow
Why would an army use fishing boats in war? lol


Remember Dunkirk during WW2 that helped the Brits? well the Chinese must have been impressed by the evacuation, so i guess they hope to commit the same miracle but this time invading instead of retreating.



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 01:16 AM
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Originally posted by deltaboy

Originally posted by ulshadow
Why would an army use fishing boats in war? lol


Remember Dunkirk during WW2 that helped the Brits? well the Chinese must have been impressed by the evacuation, so i guess they hope to commit the same miracle but this time invading instead of retreating.


Then again, a bunch of rice farmers with ox-carts and mud tunnels did pretty well against the US Army in Vietnam. Now, I know it's very different circumstances, but war is one of those unpredictable things. Other than Dunkirk in a very different technological age, we have no real references on how well such a scheme would work.



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 01:49 AM
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Originally posted by EngineMan2145

I do not know why people automatically assume that the U.S., with the world's best and most highly-trained military, would lose in such a scenario to a country that lacks the infrastructure to even support such a war, and the training, and the technology.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by EngineMan2145]


There's several reasons actually:
Home field advantage, shorter logistics basically. People get tired, fuel is burnt, etc. Next, think of your strategies, the goal wouldn't be to "beat" the US army. Just establish a sufficiently large beach head to land substantial forces on Taiwan. At that point I'd like to see even the US armed forces try to dislodge the PLA. This isn't the glorious landings of Normandy. Geography would be on the PLA side. Also, don't forget MOST of the PLA's resources would be concentrated on a SMALL portion of the US armed forces. Training and technology is great, but you can't break the laws of physics and geography.



In case you haven't noticed, the Chinese have a history of being willing to use military force to achieve their aims. So when such a gov't starts building in military power, nations take notice.


Vietnam, Iraq, Afganistan and Panama, to name a few, was what if not using "military force to achieve their aims" ? That's what military forces are for! There's extensive literature about it. Even the US military academies should be teaching the concept. Please don't just quote propaganda ! :-)



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 03:50 AM
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Originally posted by AtheiX
China does not have the logistics to transport its forces to Taiwan. Few transport ships and few transport planes.


china has a current capablilty to transport 10,000-30,000 with the PLANs transports. if we take into account the ships the PLAN can convert into armed ships the number of troops that can be transported goes up to 60,000.

china has the capblility to transport one airborne division to anywhere in china. not to mention chinas medium size helicopter fleet.


Originally posted by puri
Your pilots are as bad as I claim. You remember that American surveillance plane you commies were so happy about bringing down? You want to know how that happened? One of your pilots rant into the American plane.


he was doing something called a hotdog. im not to sure what it is but i had a video clip of the actual flight.



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 03:54 AM
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Originally posted by EngineMan2145

I do not know why people automatically assume that the U.S., with the world's best and most highly-trained military, would lose in such a scenario to a country that lacks the infrastructure to even support such a war, and the training, and the technology.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by EngineMan2145]


it wouldn't matter how well trained they are. they are facing much superior forces. with about the same level of tech.

infrastructure? havent heard this one before



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 03:56 AM
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Originally posted by chinawhite


Originally posted by EngineMan2145

I do not know why people automatically assume that the U.S., with the world's best and most highly-trained military, would lose in such a scenario to a country that lacks the infrastructure to even support such a war, and the training, and the technology.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by EngineMan2145]


it wouldn't matter how well trained they are. they are facing much superior forces. with about the same level of tech.

infrastructure? havent heard this one before

good point!

If the US meddles in Taiwan issue by sending troops, they will have everything to lose - economy, influences, military advantages, security, and little to gain. That might be the beginning of a fall-down.

The US has the biggest number of enemies in the world, while China has only one - the US (On the condition that the US is stupid enough to defend Taiwan).

The USA is using Taiwan to contain China, while China is also using TTaiwan to trap the US.

Japan is an x-factor to both side.

When the first blood is drawn, the US will quickly find all its enemies (especially the arab terrorists) owning Nukes. By fighting the US, China is likely to lose many friends, but unlikely to make new enemies (again Japan is a X-factor).

I know most americans don't like Chinese very much. Look at the postings at ATS, you can tell how ill informed they are. I used to agree with western opinions that China is full of propoganda., but after I checked the western media, I learned where the worst propoganda is.

The cause of the distrust between the US and China is profound. Most Chinese are pretty successful in understanding American way of thinking and can bend themselves, but the Americans are blinded by their past glories and successes. They would not even try to understand China, citing ChinCom as the obstacle. But do they know the 90% of the ChinComs are their capitalist cousins in essence. It's more than ideology things, it's also about culture and civilization. The US has never tried to live in peace with any non-Christian civilizations and is likely remain so. That may explain why the US don't trust China and don't treat China as equal.

Taiwan is only 100 miles from China and can't walk away. The war with CHina over taiwan is deemed to lose, in the long-run. It could last three hours, three weeks, or three hundred year. But Chinese will eventually claim Taiwan. I don't know how many American contrubutors in this forum have been to China. How many of them know about the true picture of China's economy and military strength. I am surprised to learn so many of them actually believe in their NMD (Bullets hitting bullets), and China has only 50 Nuke bombs to launch. Here is an interesting comparison: The US always advertizing its latest tech advancement, while China always hide them - culture difference might explain.



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 04:11 AM
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Originally posted by chinawhite



it wouldn't matter how well trained they are. they are facing much superior forces. with about the same level of tech.




Huh??... Superior...with same level of tech?? Are we still talking about China and the US here?

Ha...China will have its hands full if it had to deal with India/Russia now.. US is another matter..

But defeating the US or at least pushing them into a posn. they don't want to be in is not impossible here..It can be done..

[edit on 2-8-2005 by Daedalus3]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 04:23 AM
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the su-27 vs hornets. i think thats more than a fair match

the americans only have 1 forward deployed carrier. by the time america gets more carriers china will already have estiablished a beach-head or more on taiwan.



China will have its hands full if it had to deal with India/Russia now


huh. india. please dont go there.

and you can rule out any russian help. because they support chinas stance on taiwan.

here is something

China, Russia to launch first joint military exercises

The exercises will involve nearly 100,000 troops from the armies, navies, air forces as well as airborne units, marine corps and logistic units of Chinese and Russian armed forces, said the press release.
english.people.com.cn...

thats a very very large amount of trops playing cow-boys and indians



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 04:25 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
superior forces.




as in more soldiers/planes



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 06:55 AM
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Originally posted by puri


-------I don't know if you have counted China's hundreds of thousands of fishing boats, container liners and oil tankers, plus hundreds of amphybian tanks, thousands of speedboads, several devisions of paratroops, several devisions of amphebious marine corps, hundreds of armed choopers, individually winged special units, and submarines (for sending in commandos). If I were the commander of the Pacific fleet, I would definitely reakon them as a formidable logistic force.

Don't tell me you Chinese are going to transport your troops via fishing boats, oil tankers and speedboats. A military in order to transport troops over water needs transport ships or transport planes.


huh. india. please dont go there.

You are underestimating India. They have got a population of 1 billion, have as good equipment as China does and have nukes.

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 08:05 AM
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Originally posted by AtheiX

Originally posted by puri


-------I don't know if you have counted China's hundreds of thousands of fishing boats, container liners and oil tankers, plus hundreds of amphybian tanks, thousands of speedboads, several devisions of paratroops, several devisions of amphebious marine corps, hundreds of armed choopers, individually winged special units, and submarines (for sending in commandos). If I were the commander of the Pacific fleet, I would definitely reakon them as a formidable logistic force.

Don't tell me you Chinese are going to transport your troops via fishing boats, oil tankers and speedboats. A military in order to transport troops over water needs transport ships or transport planes.


Transport ships are only for the Chinese equivalent of M1A1s and crack troops. Is there a law that says it's illegal to use civilian vehicles in war? China's large fleet of Boeing commercial jets can be used as transport planes. PLA has actually conducted many drills on them. Excessive fishing boats can be used as dummies and body shields. LOL!

Puri

[edit on 2-8-2005 by puri]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 08:34 AM
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Originally posted by puri

Originally posted by AtheiX
Don't tell me you Chinese are going to transport your troops via fishing boats, oil tankers and speedboats. A military in order to transport troops over water needs transport ships or transport planes.


Transport ships are only for the Chinese equivalent of M1A1s and crack troops.

But you don't have them. And you need tanks and crack troops to defeat Taiwan.

Originally posted by puri
Is there a law that says it's illegal to use civilian vehicles in war?
No, but:
1) Those vehicles won't be performing their civilian functions (for example, the fishing boats will be transporting troops instead of fishing).
2) In order to transport troops via sea you need transport ships. Not speedboats, not fishing boats and not oil tankers.
With speedboats, fishing boats and oil tankers you can transport infatry, but you can't transport vehicles. And you need vehicles to take over Taiwan.
You Chicomms have said that the US won't stop you. I disagree with you. But let's say that you defeat the US. So what? The US won't be the only country that will defend Taiwan. We Germans also will defend Taiwan.

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 09:08 AM
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Originally posted by AtheiX

Originally posted by puri

Originally posted by AtheiX
Don't tell me you Chinese are going to transport your troops via fishing boats, oil tankers and speedboats. A military in order to transport troops over water needs transport ships or transport planes.


Transport ships are only for the Chinese equivalent of M1A1s and crack troops.

But you don't have them. And you need tanks and crack troops to defeat Taiwan.

Originally posted by puri
Is there a law that says it's illegal to use civilian vehicles in war?
No, but:
1) Those vehicles won't be performing their civilian functions (for example, the fishing boats will be transporting troops instead of fishing).
2) In order to transport troops via sea you need transport ships. Not speedboats, not fishing boats and not oil tankers.
With speedboats, fishing boats and oil tankers you can transport infatry, but you can't transport vehicles. And you need vehicles to take over Taiwan.
You Chicomms have said that the US won't stop you. I disagree with you. But let's say that you defeat the US. So what? The US won't be the only country that will defend Taiwan. We Germans also will defend Taiwan.

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]


AtheiX: China and Germany are friends and should remain so. We support your bid to join the UN Security on permanent bases with a veto right (It's Japan who foiled the game). Don't call me a chincom, I am not one of them. and don't judge people by what they believe or don't believe.

I don't believe you German will fight to the last breath for Taiwan, nor the Americans, not even the Taiwanese. Only China will.

I know Germany is a avid preacher for a stronger and more independent EU. Trust me China share your dreams and and will always be so no matter what you say.

LOL

Puri



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 09:31 AM
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Originally posted by puri
I don't believe you German will fight to the last breath for Taiwan, nor the Americans, not even the Taiwanese. Only China will.


I think Germany will defend Taiwan. Taiwan will be attacked by another country. I think we will defend a country that will be invaded by another country. In this way we will also crush an economic rival of the EU.

You said the Taiwanese won't defend themselves. I disagree. They are going to be invaded by another country.

What did you mean by "It's Japan who foiled the game"?

[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 09:52 AM
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Originally posted by AtheiX

Originally posted by puri
I don't believe you German will fight to the last breath for Taiwan, nor the Americans, not even the Taiwanese. Only China will.


I think Germany will defend Taiwan. Taiwan will be attacked by another country. I think we will defend a country that will be invaded by another country. In this way we will also crush an economic rival of the EU.

You said the Taiwanese won't defend themselves. I disagree. They are going to be invaded by another country.


You are right about "Japan foled the game". I made a mistake here. It should be "The USA foiled your plan". China is preparing to support Germany, India and maybe brazil, but definitely not Japan. Too bad you you tie yourself with JPs. But as far as I know, It's the USA who said a big no to you.

What you have to gain by crush a "economic rival" like China, you might want to crush the whole world economy as well.

China is not rivaling Germany and the Europe. The USA is. Because the US is not going to tolerate another pole of power in the world, not China, not Russia, not even their cousin - the Europe.

Taiwan is not a recognized country. Do you have a diplomatic tie with them? Does the US has a diplomatic tie with them? Actually 90% of the UN member don't. By talking about "Taiwan a normal country", you probably mean to tear down the whole world structure and rebuid it.

Clear?

Puri





[edit on 2-8-2005 by AtheiX]

[edit on 2-8-2005 by puri]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by puri



You are right about "Japan foled the game". I made a mistake here. It should be "The USA foiled your plan". China is preparing to support Germany, India and maybe brazil, but definitely not Japan. Too bad you you tie yourself with JPs. But as far as I know, It's the USA who said a big no to you.
And I think they are right. We shouldn't get a permament place in the UN SC. Have we got nukes? No. Have we got rid of the Neo-Nazi party? No. Thus we don't deserve it.

Originally posted by puri
China is not rivaling Germany and the Europe.
Yes, you are - economically.

Originally posted by puri
The USA is. Because the US is not going to tolerate another pole of power in the world, not China, not Russia, not even their cousin - the Europe.
They do tolerate other powers. They tolerate Russia and India.

I got a question: are you a liberal?



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 12:15 PM
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India ain't a superpower yet..



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