What is a realistic worst case scenario of North Korea vs South Korea?

Would someone please take the time to explain to a poorly educated person like me what is the worst case scenario if North Korea backed by China attack a US backed south Korea?
Does anyone believe that realistically this could happen once the joint war games start on Sunday?
If it does happen what is the smallest and largest response possible? I read somewhere once that N.Korea could launch a nuclear tipped war head at an aircraft carrier off it's coast and as frightening as that sounds what is the furthest they could launch one?

I know I should research this myself but Im not sure where to start.

Worst case scenario??

Nothing happens.

Then what would all the people wishing for doom & gloom do on this board?

Seriously I guess the worst would be that we intervene with our allies and China & Russia jumps in on the other side. We could have a good old fashioned world war. We could have ICBM's flying and everything.

Worst case senario...NK and SK go nuts at each other...NK wipes the floor of SK and Japan...US jumps in the fray with UK..China tries to use its strength to stop it all, but ends up engaged now in a war between the east and west
a few nations take this distraction to invade israel...nukes fly...more nukes fly...people start nuke crazy, eventually most of the world is a glowing radioactive death swamp.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b55d2f2b3c18.jpg[/atsimg]

Good times...good times...are you registered at your local vault?

reply to post by markygee


Seems to me you would have two "Super Powers" at war by proxy. The problem lies in the fact NK is uncontrollable and could easily pop a nuke and create huge problems for China based on wind direction if we pushed to hard and threatened defeat of NK. One would think before war started, China would assert some kind of control if possible. Other than massive lost of life China would be the biggest loser, in terms of cost with refugees, fallout, and if possible having the US as a next door neighbor. No part of war here would be good but maybe necessary. This is a different SK government than in the past.

reply to post by SaturnFX


er...no im not registered I dont think they have this in the UK. Surely north korean manufacturing quality means that most weapons will malfunction or not fully operate within expected parameters? (fingers crossed - i'm imagining guns not firing and ICBM's falling into the sea...)

Originally posted by markygee
reply to post by SaturnFX

 

er...no im not registered I dont think they have this in the UK. Surely north korean manufacturing quality means that most weapons will malfunction or not fully operate within expected parameters? (fingers crossed - i'm imagining guns not firing and ICBM's falling into the sea...)

not worried about NKs nuke capabilities...worried about China's, Israels, Pakistan, India, etc...the thing to worry about in dynamite is not the spark that lights the fuse...its what it leads to in the end.

Worst case, the Obama administration issues a very nasty letter of condemnation and demands an emergency meeting of the UN security council where it is finally determined that sanctions and diplomacy are the best course.

The North Korean people will suffer even more starvation and isolation.

There is your worst case scenario.

China has 2.25 million troops and likely another 5 million reserves.

If North Korea won a protracted land battle with the south it would of course be a disaster for the north and south Koreans as the regime would just be bigger and more dangerous.

If the North koreans lost then the Chinese would likely do the same as they did in the original Korean war and send mass troops into Korea to push back the South Koreans and their allies.

China might even go so far as to take the entire penninsula and claim it as their own. While they were at it Taiwan would be a target as well.

I don't think China wants it to happen yet.

Seems like the Kim family is just rocking the boat and shaking things up in preparation for another aid package extortion like they did with Clinton.

They want technology, food and money.
They will get it too. Just watch.

After they are fat and healthy on foriegn aid and money, then they will invade.

fair comments but after consideration Im leaning towards nothing happening as the soon to be new leader will not want to rule over an apocolyptic waste...or...does he feel he needs to make a statement about his authority?
I still think nothing will happen but looking at the bigger picture Ive just been shown by you guys is a worst case scenario would make swatting north korea the least of our problems if the crazies start playing who's got the biggest balls.

reply to post by markygee

Worst case scenario

We all die

shot for the past 50 some odd years that has all way bean the "Worst case scenario"
But I dont see it going that far little kiny pitches a fit and get what he wants, he's just like that spoiled little brat down the block.
But If it were to come to war the nukes will be the last thing in the war. It will be conventional at first until NK is beat back in to a corner the the birds will fly. Or hell who knows little kimy may knock us back in a corner. With a quick first punch (nuke) then the gloves come off and sides will be chosen. On one side china, Russia, Iran, and NK the other the west and all that will stand with her. Their are some under dogs in the fight as well Israeli, Pakistan and India. With Turkey ticked off with Israel and Al-Qaeda , Taliban in Pakistan. All that I named have or supposed to have nukes besides turkey. There is a lot of moves left on the board be fore I run and hide.

what would be a US response if one of their battlegroup was torpedoed and the north denied it was them (again)?

North Korea doesn't need nukes to start a Southeast Asia conflagration. They have enough conventional artillery within range of Seoul to turn the city into a sea of flame within a couple of hours. I can't find it now, but I remember reading a STRATFOR report a couple of years ago that said North Korea, which has the LARGEST conventional artillery force in the entire world, could rain down 10,000 shells an hour on the South Korean capital.

I WAS able to find THIS SERIES OF MAPS that illustrates the problem faced by the South Koreans, and the token "speedbump" American force stationed at the DMZ.

They've had 50 years to prepare for an attack; unfortunately for them, so have we. There is no way in hell that the US would stand by as Seoul was destroyed. Considering the time constraints, any exchange of fire could escalate into the use of tactical nukes within minutes.

.

Originally posted by OldCorp
North Korea doesn't need nukes to start a Southeast Asia conflagration. They have enough conventional artillery within range of Seoul to turn the city into a sea of flame within a couple of hours. I can't find it now, but I remember reading a STRATFOR report a couple of years ago that said North Korea, which has the LARGEST conventional artillery force in the entire world, could rain down 10,000 shells an hour on the South Korean capital.

I WAS able to find THIS SERIES OF MAPS that illustrates the problem faced by the South Koreans, and the token "speedbump" American force stationed at the DMZ.

They've had 50 years to prepare for an attack; unfortunately for them, so have we. There is no way in hell that the US would stand by as Seoul was destroyed. Considering the time constraints, any exchange of fire could escalate into the use of tactical nukes within minutes.

So they could do plenty but realistically this is going to be sabre rattling again me thinks. What would he do with a completely destroyed south korea? 10 000 shells an hour isn't going to leave much to work with once he's used em up is it?
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reply to post by markygee



Worst case - a dying dictator wants to leave a mark in history - something to remember him by

An alternative to what you suggest is that the US and Europe imposes sanctions on NK to which China make their own Sanctions against them with their rare resources like they did last month, the economy goes crashing, NK invades SK for their resources, war starts, nukes fly.

This would seem more plausible since the US have been wanting to put further sanctions on NK and the US are known for using sanctions in order to get what they want and they're pretty bullheaded about it too once they start. Just look at Cuba, I thought things were suppose to get better? Anyways, just saying... there's a lot of ways this could go wrong but one thing's for sure, China isn't a US ally, if it wasn't for trade these countries would tolerate each other even less.

I wonder where Russia stands in all this. I have to admit, Putin does seem like a pretty cool guy.

Originally posted by markygee
So they could do plenty but realistically this is going to be sabre rattling again me thinks. What would he do with a completely destroyed south korea? 10 000 shells an hour isn't going to leave much to work with once he's used em up is it?

Kim is a Malignant Narcissist the same as Saddam was. He actually believes his own propaganda that he's some kind of demi-god born on a holy hill somewhere; in short, he's NUCKING FUTS! I wouldn't put anything past this mental midget.

reply to post by markygee


Worst Case Scenario is an escalation of Political Posturing possiblly leading to Biological Warfare between North and South . The use of Nuclear Weapons is Highly Unlikely .

Originally posted by StlSteve
reply to post by markygee

 

Worst case - a dying dictator wants to leave a mark in history - something to remember him by

If it went full bore between the US/China and a total nuclear exchanged occurred there wouldn't be anyone around to read about said history making event.

Originally posted by Zanti Misfit
reply to post by markygee

 

Worst Case Scenario is an escalation of Political Posturing possiblly leading to Biological Warfare between North and South . The use of Nuclear Weapons is Highly Unlikely .

What would be the global effect of the use of biological/nuclear weapons? would there be some sort of cancer causing fall out across the USA and western europe or would it fall on japan, china and russia?

reply to post by markygee


I do not know . Would not the use of such weapons be localized ?