N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

reply to post by quest4info


The timing of Obama visit of India was another coordinated attempt to destabilize far east, I believe. The links you provided reinforce that suspicion.

South Korea should officially admit their mistake now !!!!

reply to post by MikeboydUS


That's presuming that the rest of the world lies idly by while the US is, presumably, stretched thin in three conflicts around the globe. The Middle Eastern theater could heat up. Pakistan and India conflict over Kashmir could heat up. Which would essentially be a plausible WW3 scenario. Not sure what the catalyst would be for all of these scenarios to happen.

As far as the Koreas go; I'd actually be surprised to see an enduring hot exchange between the Koreas because each side knows a lot is at stake if this were to actually happen. China would have to be ready to deal with a massive stream of refugees trying to escape the crisis. Both North and South Korea will have a sobering amount of civilian causalities on the outset of hostilities. The US would have to deal with suffering a massive amount of US troop causalities in the initial North Korean attack / counter attack on US assets in the region. I don't think either side wants that. North Korea knows that its only advantage is in surprise with an all out Blitzkrieg style assault and once the South and US counter attacks it's military and leadership structure is in danger of being completely obliterated unless China can stop it from happening.

Basically, it's a lose lose situation because what's the endgame? The US will not let the North invade and occupy the South, and China will not let the South and the US to invade and occupy the North, or usher in a "pro-west" regime change.

I am no expert just giving my two cents.

Originally posted by quest4info
I wonder if this is coincidence?

India to deploy 36,000 extra troops on China border. Nov.24/2010
www.nation.com.pk...

India test-fires nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Nov.25/2010
www.businessweek.com...

Somehow I don't think China will get involved in Korea. I am wondering if Obamas trip to India was to get support to deter China in the event the Korean crisis escalates.

and i wonder if China and Russia's recent meeting where they agreed to invest in each others economies, move away from the dollar, increase oil trade, and be firm allies for eternity was a response....hmm.

www.chinadaily.com.cn...

seekingalpha.com...

europe.chinadaily.com.cn...

europe.chinadaily.com.cn...

reply to post by MikeboydUS

The PLA would very quickly overextend themselves without a modern logistics network. Just to defend North Korea and take Taiwan would exhaust them. Sure they have millions of troops, but millions of troops need food, water, medicine, ammo, and fuel. They cannot sustain momentum.

How is logistics one of their problems? China is very well known for it's ability to make an efficient logistics system. Or have we forgotten that the main strong point that led China into a super-power was production and delivery?

Flipping the switch and transform that into a war-machine isn't all that hard. The US did exactly the same in WW2.

And regarding momentum... The Soviets, during the WW2, were also considered the "brutes" of the world, non-equiped, non-trained and all those problems... Yet, they could sustain up to 3 times more casualties than any other military force.

Exhaustion was the thing that made them win against the germans (the ones that were the logistic masters with a flawless battle plan), but not by efficiency... Just by taking so many punches in the cheek without dying.

On the other hand the US, Japan, Australia, and others would be able to maintain a high op tempo. Momentum would not halt. We could carry out air sorties non-stop wiping out every power plant, major bridge, factory, military base, dam, port, and support major insurgencies in Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang.

China, as bad as their reputation may be around the world, isn't involved in any major war. Unlike NATO and the US who have been in every single major conflict since WW2.

After the first Gulf war, after Bosnia, and after this charade in Iraq(again) and Afghanistan, you actually think that everyone would "jump into the wagon" and help ol'buddy Sam? You are mistaken.

Nobody can afford a war, much less a major conflict. Everyone would scramble to their countries and let the big boys fight their own war. Even NATO is closing down around 4000 commands due to restrictions to the budget, and you think that the US has huge shoulders because of it's allies? Maybe with bases, and some naval ports. But that as much as the US is going to get with the current economic status.

And talking about momentum, you can't keep it forever. And China hasn't even moved for the last decades, let alone face the conflicts that the US has. Russia is behind China, making new stealth-fighters, doing advanced research on new UAVS and UCAVS. People made a huge mistake of thinking that the US were the only ones manufacturing advanced warfare. People made a fatal mistake of thinking that China wasn't a part of that technology.

So, the almighty power of the US, slipped away by drops to the Chinese, and to Russia. Any toy that the US has, China does too. Provably even more units.

Sure the PRC could beg Russia to get involved, but I can't imagine Putin doing anything else than trying to sustain the PLA logistically. Putin would probably love to see the PRC and the US destroy each other.

Here you contradict yourself, with all due respect. If Russia supports China with logistics, you just nailed their biggest problem (according to your opinion). If Russia (that is "only" Russia) supports China in a military conflict, the US is pretty much screwed, or at least, is in for a very fair and hard fight.

And as for "letting them destroy eachother", I don't think so. China is to Russia, like the UK is to the US. It's not a friend that you want to lose.

If they actually decided to use the nuclear option, which is improbable, they would not be able to absorb or defend against the US response. That would simply be the end of China, with tens of millions of refugees fleeing into India and Russia in the aftermath.

I agree with you in the nuclear issue. I don't think they will use nukes in case of war. At least, if the conflict doesn't escalate into an all-out war between China and the US.

But again, I think that the US has more to lose than China. If you bomb China with nukes, you will kill millions, and bring down some buildings.

If China bombs the US, which is possible, then you can consider major blackout zones due to the EMP emissions and all the other "candy" stuff that a nuke brings, simply because China can afford the loss, but not the US.

Due to the US being primarily a service based economy and the actual ability to defend against a ballistic missile threat, we could handle the loss of quite a few cities while concentrating on defense of the Northeastern Corridor, the heart of our finances, military and government.

Yes, you are correct. But defense systems are plausible to fail, due to inflicted attacks or by other factors. Which means that it's possible that they actually attack the US heart and brain first. And that could happen. Regarding damage-resistance, the US is much more fragile than China. And by the way, China as a nice terrain to help it sustain a nuclear attack. The US is nice and flat...

People have no idea what we are prepared to handle or do in the aftermath of such events, but we have been preparing for such an event since the Cold War started. We have system upon redundant system, a continuity of operations and government on a scale that cannot be fathomed by the average person. It is leviathan in scope.

I'm aware of such efforts. But that doesn't mean that China and Russia aren't also prepared. That doesn't mean that there isn't a winner and loser. It just means that to us, average joe, the damage to our lives will be much greater, sadly.

Kind regards

Here you contradict yourself, with all due respect. If Russia supports China with logistics, you just nailed their biggest problem (according to your opinion). If Russia (that is "only" Russia) supports China in a military conflict, the US is pretty much screwed, or at least, is in for a very fair and hard fight.

reply to post by Tifozi


Have you watched the news that Russia and China abandoned dollar in their mutual trade?

What a timing with Obama visit to Asia and the Korean artillery incident!!!

No more instigation of war unless the US wants the total destruction of the globe !!!!

Stop It Now!!!

reply to post by notsoperfect


Yes, I am aware of such events.

But it's like I've said to people who talk with me about that... In the current economic situation, it's really hard to see what's a economic measure, and a preparation for war.

Originally posted by Tifozi
reply to post by notsoperfect

 

Yes, I am aware of such events.

But it's like I've said to people who talk with me about that... In the current economic situation, it's really hard to see what's a economic measure, and a preparation for war.

Both seem to lead to the same result only because the US has everything to lose in either respect.

I wonder what world event will happen, that isn't blamed on the United States. Oh wait... I know what it will be.. It will be a positive event.

Just read one of the headlines on Jerusalem Post. It states North Korea is a threat to Israel as it supplies tech to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

Now I know this sounds wacky but what if Israeli secret operations were behind these events somehow? They must want the transfer of dangerous weapons to stop?

According to the NY Post, Clinton is on the phone with China's and South Korea's Foreign Ministers discussing their positions on the events that are transpiring in the Koreas. Seems like North Korea should be on the phone too, or maybe they just intentionally left that part out.

China holds talks with (Hillary) Clinton on North Korea

reply to post by majesticgent


Or China is struggling to contain North Korea.

S.Korea relaunches psychological warfare against DPRK

From the Link:

Seoul also set up the loudspeakers along the heavily fortified border with the North, as part of countermeasures following the ship sinking.

A senior official said the military has not been decided yet whether to resume anti-North propaganda broadcasting, and "it will depend on North's further move," according to local media.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang warned Seoul last month to stop anti-DPRK psychological operations, saying that if South Korea did not halt the broadcasting and the scattering of leaflets, it would "never be able to escape the KPA's (Korean People's Army) physical strikes" at the sources of the propaganda.

More

South Korea have reportedly dropped leaflets on the DPRK (Not sure whether to believe this yet, I would assume dropping by air would be risky.)

South Korea puts up loudspeakers along the border, when North Korea warned last month if both events occured, South Korea would "never be able to escape the KPA's physical strikes".

Not good.

reply to post by infinite


Yes, I do believe that North Korea's leadership is putting China between a rock and a hard place because they are trying to drag China into the fray which it appears that China wants no part of it. The "stern warning" against the joint South Korean and US exercise is China pleading with the US/SK not to stir up a hornets nest. It is like China is expected to be the mediator when both sides are doing things to rile the other side up, and on the same token China is trying to tend to both sides of the fence.

reply to post by Regensturm


In 2004, both countries signed an agreement stating that they would no longer carry out those means of propaganda. I assume that agreement null and void now.

reply to post by ufoorbhunter


The torpedo that hit the South Korean navy ship was found to be German made, and according to the sources, Germany sold them only to Israel.

What does that say?

Originally posted by majesticgent
According to the NY Post, Clinton is on the phone with China's and South Korea's Foreign Ministers discussing their positions on the events that are transpiring in the Koreas. Seems like North Korea should be on the phone too, or maybe they just intentionally left that part out.

China holds talks with Clinton on North Korea

edit on 26-11-2010 by majesticgent because: grammar

Why is Clinton pokiing his nose into things?

Surely it should be Obama or Hilary Clinton speaking to them, Clinton is dust and an EX President!

Did Obama tell him to ring them because he knows that he is no good at communication?

reply to post by minkey53


Why not? Clinton is a peace maker, isn't he?

our local news at 10pm last night...6 minutes for lines at toys r' us, 3 minutes for "valueable" bamboo tree stolen, 1 minute 30 seconds on north korea, 2 minutes for the many ads sent out for black friday, 2 minutes on what to do with the leftovers....then sports and weather.
and you wonder why nobody knows anything about world events.

reply to post by notsoperfect
Israel does appear to have a little sway over US foreign policy. If they really want to stop the factories supplying the ME powers with weapons then it does start to make sense.

reply to post by minkey53


The article is speaking about Hillary Clinton. I will edit the link to make it clear.