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N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

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posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 06:12 AM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


WOAH!!!!Seems like we might see the start of something between the two Koreas...granted the north really makes good of its promise this time.......I just wonder whats gonna be response from the south if this threat is carried out, since theres the China factor now....and Vitchilo, since you been looking into this since last years attack from the North....whats your take on this, and what do you really see coming out of this recent attack threat from the North?
Thanks for keeping us posted....

Best Regards,

ringht_n_wrong




posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 06:25 AM
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reply to post by ringht_n_wrong
 

I think whether or not NKorea carry out this attack, they will do a provocation before May 1. Most likely in mid-April. I've been saying this since early December.

Probably nothing that kills people... but...

- Nuclear test
- ICBM test
- Invasion of a contested island

But if NKorea does indeed strike, I think we will see limited airstrikes against the North against the sources of the attack. Then if NKorea counterattacks again, the US might think about bombing the nuclear installations in NKorea and missile sites, especially the new one they just finished... it took them a decade to build it... it would be a big blow to NKorea if the US just destroyed it a week after it's finished.


And if the US does that... NKorea might scream and cry about it while doing nothing else... or might ask China for help... we'll see what China really does when it hits the fan on the Korean peninsula.

They all talk about being ``neutral``... but when it comes to WHAT THEY DO... they actually support NKorea every single time.



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 06:32 AM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


I kindda see the same happening in the near future what I just don't understand is the mid april to may 1st dates and how they play out in the bigger scheme of things...care to enlighten me a bit on that one? thanks


ringht_n_wrong



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 06:40 AM
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reply to post by ringht_n_wrong
 


I've been saying April 15 since december because April 15 is the anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the founder of NKorea, the father of Kim Jong Il. And I'm not totally sure about this, but this year might mark the 100 year anniversary of his birth, even if he was born on April 15 1912... I've read somewhere that in Korea, they count anniversary differently.

Not to mention, NKorea is preparing a nuclear test.. which they can carry out as soon as early April. And they just finished a new missile base.

So to mark the anniversary, I bet they'll do one or a few provocations. Nuclear test and/or missile test. I think 100% chance of happening.

And about the threats of attacks if the South doesn't stop their leaflets in the North... guess what, the South is very unlikely to stop. So they're calling the North's bluff.

We shall see, but calling the UN and the military hotline to say they'll strike if they don't stop looks to me like justifying themselves beforehand. Wouldn't surprise me if Obama calls SKorea and asks them to stop.
edit on 27-2-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 06:49 AM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Quite interesting...I didn't know about those dates....and yeah it seems quite possible since the north is into trying to impress its own population with a show of force of some kind whenever there something important happening in there....so like you said....I guess we shall see....I just hope this thing doesn't spill into Europe or South America if it ever gets past the tit for tat spats they have between each other....or if it happens I hope its only after my midsummer holidays



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 11:26 AM
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I look for something bigger to happen around April or May - that is unless Kim's temper tantrums over the leaflets guides him to do something stupid and sneaky. Wouldn't put it pass him at all. We wait and watch!



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 07:42 PM
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There's no chance of the North Koreans revolting. Most of them don't even know about places outside NK, and if they do, they think NK is better (well, probably not anymore). but there is no chance of them revolting, and if they do, it wont be very succesfful



posted on Feb, 27 2011 @ 10:47 PM
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Redeploy the tactical weapons

Against this backdrop, a recent remark by Gary Samore, the White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction, proliferation and terrorism, particularly attracts our attention. He said that Washington would agree to the idea of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons if South Korea made an official request.

So it's very likely to happen. Probably after the next upcoming NKorean provocation within a few weeks.

N. Korea not likely to collapse through popular uprisings: expert

The international community should not expect North Korea to collapse soon through popular uprisings but instead seek an incremental approach to build trust with the nuclear-armed communist state, an expert said Sunday.


S. Korea, U.S. kick off annual drills amid N. Korea's threat

South Korean and U.S. troops launched annual joint drills on Monday to ensure their defense readiness against North Korean aggression, officials said, despite warnings from the North that the drills could lead to an "all-out war."

+1

Defense Chief Warns of More N.Korean Provocations

South Korea is preparing for further North Korean provocations during the annual Seoul-Washington military drills starting Monday, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said Friday. Kim told parliament that the North could attempt provocations amid the Seoul-Washington military drills, dubbed "Key Resolve and Foal Eagle" which will last until March 10

But the military believes that the chances are slim of direct, targeted firing attacks at areas where leaflet-carrying balloons are released, despite a threat from North Korea.

But the military thinks the North could fire at South Korean loudspeakers along the DMZ. It has apparently been training to do so since June last year, even though the South has not made good a promise to resume propaganda broadcasts through them.

The military is preparing for various scenarios including surprise attack on islands or the capital area, firing of medium- and long-range missiles, a third nuclear test, provocations in the DMZ, terror attacks on major cities and South Korean workers at the Kaesong Industrial Estate being taken hostage.


China Warns Int'l Reporters Off Covering Protests

Chinese authorities either telephoned or met directly with foreign correspondents in Beijing on Friday and Saturday, ahead of a second anti-government rally in Beijing, demanding that reporters obey Chinese laws. Reporters said the warning was tantamount to a ban on covering protests in the Chinese capital.

The Chinese regime is very afraid...

N.Korea Issues Fresh War Threats

But daily necessities attached to the helium balloons that carry the flyers are no less threatening. Toothpaste, toothbrushes, soap, instant noodles, household medicines, microwave instant rice, and radio sets are make it clear that the regime cannot provide for its own people.

South Korean activists floated balloons carrying about W600 million (US$1=W1,127) worth of goods to the North in February alone. In the past, many North Koreans reportedly rushed to collect the US$1 bills and daily necessities the balloons carried. A dollar buys 1 kg of rice or 1 kg of pork.

The regime even mobilizes military troops to collect propaganda leaflets, but it then reportedly has to watch them as well lest they pocket the goods or read the flyers.

The NKorean population sees who's the real good guys with that... those who help them (the south) and those who oppress them (Kim)... No wonder Kim is pissed.


#ROK defense ministry denies to VOA the Yonhap report quoting JCS saying military alert raised amid concerns of #DPRK provocation threat.



posted on Feb, 28 2011 @ 04:44 AM
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S. Korea not mulling return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons: gov't
We'll see what they say after the next NKorean nuclear test/ICBM test...

Relations between Koreas 'at crossroads': unification minister

Relations between South and North Korea are "at a crossroads again," Seoul's point man on Pyongyang said Monday, urging the communist country to do away with its belligerent behavior to prevent their ties from further fraying.


S. Korea warns N. Korea to stop making threats as war games kick off

South Korea warned North Korea on Monday to stop using belligerent rhetoric to slam joint U.S.-South Korean military drills that kicked off this week, saying such a move is not helping to improve relations between the divided countries.

+1



posted on Feb, 28 2011 @ 04:48 AM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


I see so your on the side with Americas empire Vitchilo

The Chinese dont want a revolution Vitchilo its a nation of near one billion.
edit on 28-2-2011 by Agent_USA_Supporter because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 28 2011 @ 10:21 PM
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Originally posted by Agent_USA_Supporter
reply to post by Vitchilo
 


I see so your on the side with Americas empire Vitchilo

What ya mean?


It's sorta sad when North Korea threatens to turn Seoul into a "sea of flames" and no one pays attention any more.

Maybe if they stopped being attention whores people would listen?

U.S. has no plans to redeploy tactical nukes to S. Korea: White House

Lee says S. Korea wants 'open-minded' talks with N. Korea

Russia 'very critical' of N. Korea's nuclear program: official

Russia is "very critical" of North Korea's uranium enrichment program (UEP), but any concrete steps toward dealing with it will have to be weighed against the country's relations with other key nations, Seoul's ambassador to Moscow said Monday.


Kim's son likely to make high-profile visit to China

Jong Un set to meet Xi Jinping, Hu's presumptive successor, in March


North Korea warns South of nuclear war

South Korean and US troops began military drills yesterday, as North Korea warned that the exercises could trigger a nuclear war on the divided peninsula.


NKorea threats over war games 'unwarranted': US

Good news :
Japan, China agree to patch up ties

Japan and China agreed Monday to improve ties which were strained to breaking point over maritime collisions near disputed islands in the East China Sea five months ago.

The agreement was reached at a meeting between Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae and his Chinese counterpart Zhang Zhijun, the Japanese foreign ministry said in a press release.

The meeting lasted about five and a half hours and was an "active, candid and pointed exchange of views," the statement said.

It was the first so-called "strategic dialogue" between the two countries at the subcabinet level since June 2009.


No Nuclear Limit: China

Chinese officials have declared that there can be no limit to the expansion of Beijing's nuclear arsenal, amid growing regional fears that it will eventually equal that of the United States, with profound consequences for the strategic balance in Asia.


S. Korea's defense minister tells troops to act fast if provoked

South Korea's defense minister instructed his troops on Tuesday not to hesitate to act immediately if they are attacked by North Korea, as he toured the western inter-Korean border wrought with tension after Pyongyang threatened to fire if provoked.

"During an operation, don't ask whether to shoot or not. Report after taking action first," Kim Kwan-jin said during his visit to the First Army Corps, which oversees the tourist zone of Imjingak that the North on Sunday threatened to shoot at, officials said.



Andrei Lankov -- "In the next few months, there is a very high probability of another large-scale N. Korean attack."

Andrei Lankov knows what he's talking about, he's a Russian scholar specialist in Korean studies.
Andrei Lankov Wiki

His interview with Bloomberg
edit on 28-2-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 28 2011 @ 10:37 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Everything reads as if the South and North are on the brink again.

What do you think about Kims threat now that the war games have began?
Do you think NK will attack?



posted on Feb, 28 2011 @ 10:44 PM
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reply to post by crazydaisy
 


Well I don't think they'll attack YET (not in the next few days at least)... but them sending the warning to the UN and through the military hotline is quite new...

I've been saying this for about a week now... all points towards a new NKorean provocation in the next few weeks. I think the chances of it happening between now and May 1 is about 99.9%


But I doubt it will lead to war. Probably just retaliation from the South... Hopefully nobody dies on either side.
edit on 28-2-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 04:30 AM
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Breaking from a TRUSTED SOURCE... (which never fed me false info for over 4 months now)

- South Korea now in highest state of alert due to intel of a coming NKorean attack
- South Korea will respond 3 fold to NKorea attack.

So if NKorea shells an island with 100 shells, SKorea is gonna respond with 300 shells....

Hopefully this doesn't develop and the intel is wrong....

Update : They take the NKorean threat seriously, they are seeing on the NKorean border that NKorean forces have raised their alert status.

They fear a border town shelled or a terrorist attack inside SKorea by NKorean sleeper agents.

Hopefully, the North just raised their alert status to intimidate the South.

UPDATE 2 : The South plans to defy North Korea directly with another bunch of leaflets will be sent to North Korea in the next few hours...

Since North Korea is on high alert, and South Korea plans to do this, we could really have another skirmish in the next 12 hours.

UPDATE 3 : South Korea plan to send their leaflets at 6AM LOCAL, in about 11 hours from now (6AM EST)...

100 000 leaflets will be dropped. It will coincide with the Kim Jong Il anniversary (February 16) celebrations.

North Korea is on high alert and said if the South goes ahead with that, they will strike back.


So me thinks the chance of a skirmish in the next 12 hours are VERY HIGH...
edit on 1-3-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 06:09 AM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


I think SK are getting egged on.....

second line

The timing is perfect, fortunately my English students are from an island deep south....I still shutter at the sheer devastation to humanity that will result from a North/South complete ignition.



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 11:34 AM
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Said it in your other Thread as well Vitchilo. With the Middle East on Fire and the US probably planning something there,this would be a perfect Timing for N-Korea and China do start something.



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 06:08 PM
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Indeed it would be quite perfect.

S. Korea to get first early warning plane

South Korea will take delivery of its first of a new batch of early warning aircraft in July, officials in Seoul say.

"The first 737 airborne early warning and control aircraft is in development test and evaluation after its first tests were complete successfully last June," a procurement official was quoted saying to Defense News.

"Type test and evaluation is scheduled to begin in March before a Korean operation utility demonstration slated for Monday."


U.S. Considers Resuming Food Aid to N.Korea

The United States is considering resuming food aid to North Korea following reports that a severe food shortage could lead to malnutrition and starvation.

Special envoy for North Korea Stephen Bosworth told the Senate Committee on Foreign relations Tuesday that North Korea has asked for U.S. food aid and that Washington is considering the request.



U.S. Aircraft Carrier to Participate in Joint Drills

In time with the start, the North Korean military reportedly put coastal artillery units and naval units on the western coast north of the Northern Limit Line on special alert, and ordered other military units to maintain combat readiness.

A government source here said once the "Key Resolve" drill comes to an end on March 10, the Ronald Reagan and Yokosuka-based naval ships of the Seventh Fleet will take part in the "Foal Eagle" exercise, which continues until April 30.

The Reagan arrives at the Naval Operations Base in Busan in mid-March.


U.S. urges N. Korea to improve ties with S. Korea before 6-way talks' resumption

The United States Tuesday urged North Korea to improve ties with South Korea before any resumption of the six-party nuclear talks, deadlocked for years over the North's missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.



Defector Recalls Power of S.Korean Propaganda

The best way to reach North Koreans with news about the outside world is propaganda flyers from the South, the head of a defector radio station claimed Monday. Kim Sung-min (50) of Free North Korea Radio on Monday said, "There are no better channels than South Korea's leaflets that deliver accurate news into North Korea's controlled society."

He claimed news about recent uprisings in the Middle Eastern countries will persuade North Koreans to wonder about the state of their own country.

"From my own past experience, I can say that there is no better means than propaganda leaflets to make North Koreans doubt the regime," said Kim, who fled the North in 1992.


Keep Quiet About Psy-Ops, Gov't Tells Military

The government has apparently told the military to keep quiet about psychological warfare operations against North Korea. A senior government official said Monday "no government would confirm or deny whether its military is engaged" in activities like sending leaflets and goods attached to helium balloons to the North. "But if the military is openly engaging in such activities, it would obviously need to be stopped."

So they want to make it look like the SKorean military is not linked with the leaflets...


DefSec Gates announces Gen. James Thurman to replace Gen. Sharp as commander, US Forces Korea. #USFJ about 1 hour ago via web

edit on 1-3-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 06:12 PM
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I hope your reliable source is wrong but most likely isn't. Its really brewing now and more leaflets to be let go soon.



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 07:11 PM
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Originally posted by crazydaisy
I hope your reliable source is wrong but most likely isn't. Its really brewing now and more leaflets to be let go soon.

Well my source always gave me good info... so...

But so far, no leaflets... IMO they received a call to at least delay it...more info later from my source.

Kim Jong-il Makes 1st Appearance in Days

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reappeared in public on Sunday after vanishing from view since Feb. 17. Until then he had undertaken 27 of his so-called on-the-spot guidance trips this year, one every 1.92 days on average.

Observers believe the dictator hunkered down due to the Jasmine Revolutions in the Middle East, which unseated leaders who like him had had an iron grip on power for decades.

Kim was seen again at a concert by an orchestra of the People's Internal Security Forces, escorted by his son and heir Jong-un. The forces are a new guard founded to protect the Kims, experts believe.

"The Kims visited the guard first because they will protect them in an emergency," a North Korean source said.

edit on 1-3-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 1 2011 @ 07:14 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


I would think the wind direction would have to be just right to let the leaflets go.

I don't think we will see anything in the Spring now, I think its going to be sooner.

BTW wanted to give you appreciation for keeping up the thread, you do an excellent
job!



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