N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

My analysis on the situation is the following:

North Korea is a wild propaganda animal backed on a corner, so it is natural that they have been threatening nuclear war in self-defense, since Bush named them Axis of Evil.

Their words are mostly propaganda, why? Because if an all-out war would occur, they would suffer massively. They don't want war. So, armed with nukes they are less likely to be invaded, because they could drop one in Seoul, which no one wants. This way, they somewhat assure their survival.

The US and South Korea want to remove the regime from the North. But they don't want war as well. They know how mighty is NK army, so that's why they didn't start a war yet! No one wants a sea of fire in Seoul, with or without a nuke. In addition that the NK could also target the US.

Both SK and US are therefore in a struggle to know how they could deal with the North problem without risking heavy losses. Their best try is helping causing a regime collapse. This is turning out to be very hard because the NK state is so filled with propaganda, and thus well-prepared against it.

Currently we have a stalemate. If China and Russia would side with the US, this would be much easier. However, in every scenario, there is a risk of some of them being nuked by NK. No one wants that. Even that the US would win the war, it doesn't want to confront that risk. This would open the door for other future nuclear wars, and the destruction of our civilization.

NK probably has at least something like 15-20 nukes. Do you think a country would test 2 nukes, without having at least five or ten times more nukes?

We have a second cold war ongoing. No one knows how long it will last. But I am sure that the 2010s will be very unstable (predictions based on historical cycles, link in my signature). Let's see what happens...

reply to post by Bluetwo


Who else thinks tomorrow may be the big day? 12:00 am EST is when the next land drills begin correct?

The SK gov't cracking down on social networks is a disturbing sign of what is to come I think. They both may go up in a ball of flame, and we won't even know what happened, who struck first, or the scale of the conflict.

North Korea is being called out, what option do they have besides the "use it or lose it" scenerio?

reply to post by segurelha


I agree with the way you see this conflict developing but of one thing I am sure, is that if TPTB really want a full scale war to bring on their purposes, then a few nukes here and there won't really matter.....IMO

watching the president speech right now...anxiously waiting for him to add in...

"Ive created jobs, ive repealed legislature, oh...and btw....were all about to go to war! But anyways back to what ive done..."

Originally posted by Darce
reply to post by Bluetwo

 

Who else thinks tomorrow may be the big day? 12:00 am EST is when the next land drills begin correct?

The SK gov't cracking down on social networks is a disturbing sign of what is to come I think. They both may go up in a ball of flame, and we won't even know what happened, who struck first, or the scale of the conflict.

North Korea is being called out, what option do they have besides the "use it or lose it" scenerio?

edit on 22-12-2010 by Darce because: (no reason given)

Tomorrow will pass without incident just like every other time.

N. Korea don't really want war... They want money. They want military hardware. They launch a few shells at a S. Korean Island then threaten nuclear war, someone pays them out and they shutup... Its how it always goes.

Notice how they promise to annihilate S. Korea if they hold these drills then all of a sudden "Oh were not going to kill them all now." Gee what a co-incidence that they were just visited by a very rich person and probably given huge swaths of money to not start a war.

Nothing will happen. I would bet the house on that.

War WILL happen again, the question is not "if", it's "when", so please do not bet anything on that war can't or won't happen, its happened in the past many times and can very easily happen again, do not be so ignorant.

I see the skids are being oiled right now.

North Korea will not attack tonight. (don't get me wrong the possibility is there)
I will be following the updates here.
Really hoping north Korea does not do anything stupid and get themselves blown up.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I wonder what time the drills are expected?

reply to post by Plan2exist18


I didn't know the President made a speech today. I know how his speeches go but did he make any indications to the people at all about impending war? The slightest thing could mean something between the lines - thank you.

Not to get in a peeing match with anyone but we should remember that most wars begin by misjudgment or mistake. I agree that the North wants more goodies and for their elite to stay in power rather than start a war. The more one pushes on the brinksmanship the more the chances for a screwup. A mistake only has to be made on an individual level for things to go bad. Being charged for an accidental discharge would be the least of their problems.

I note that some folk who are serving are visiting this thread. Thank you for your service. Keep your heads down, chins up, eyes and ears open and listen to your NCO's and remember your training. It will get you through.

reply to post by crazydaisy


He made his end-of-year speech, which is basically his last public speech before the the 1st of the new year. Lets hope if war does break out that he will adress the people before then...but hes going on vacation so im not sure.

He made his opening statement addressing all the "accomplishments" achieved in the lame duck session this year, basically kinda tooting his own horn while also saying there were some things he wanted passed that didnt make it thru...(boo hoo) Then he took questions regarding the repeal of Dont Ask-Dont Tell, the failure of the Dream Act, and other bills such as the 9/11 First-Responders Relief and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), (which would limit our nuclear effectiveness in the future)

If there was any mention at all hinting towards the Korean situation, it was right at the end when he said "I hope for the safety of troops overseas in possibly dangerous situations" or something like that, but followed with "in Afghanistan"

reply to post by Plan2exist18


Thanks for the Obama speech info. Didn't miss anything important I see but I thought he might have at least touched on the NK subject a little more. You know there are people out there that don't even know this is happening and the President will just pop in one day and say we're going to war folks - pack your hobo bags cause this one is serious!

Originally posted by thecinic


North Korea will not attack tonight. (don't get me wrong the possibility is there)

Really hoping north Korea does not do anything stupid and get themselves blown up.

Are you not contradicting yourself here?
You say no but mean yes

reply to post by crazydaisy


Yes he did make a speech and I was watching his lips move and was listening in earnest but, for the life of me I cannot recall one thing he said. That is so weird By the way I love your cat If he or she ever needs a home I will drive up there and get her or him PEACE and Merry Christmas

reply to post by piercebitchone


I hardly ever remember anything Obama's speaks about either, lol. Simba says hello and thank you but he won't be leaving, he's my baby!

Drill should start within 20 minutes or so.

# Today's big #ROK war game -- meant to simulate #DPRK invasion -- is pool coverage for foreign media. AP's Foster Klug is pen pool. 9 minutes ago via TweetDeck

# Largest #ROK wintertime joint Army-AF live fire exercise begins in less than 3 hours at Pocheon, 30km S of border with #DPRK. #Koreas about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

N. Korea's latest IRBM believed to be able to carry nuclear warhead: expert

North Korea's latest intermediate-range ballistic missile, which appeared in Pyongyang's military parade in October, is believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon, a South Korean researcher said Thursday.

Yep...

Korean showdown exposes China-US gap: analysts

Beijing, Glaser said, sees the tough stand taken by Washington and Seoul as breeding instability.

"They (the Chinese) want North Korea to be restrained and they want the South to be restrained," Glaser said.

"They also don't want to put too much pressure on North Korea via the UN because they worry that could provoke North Korea to engage in more destabilizing action," she said.

Here's NKorea response to the exercise...
N.Korea criticises S.Korean "warmongers" for exercise

North Korea criticised South Korea's "warmonger" military for a major firing exercise set to start later Thursday, saying the drill is aggressive in nature.

In a relatively mildly worded commentary, it described the four-day naval drill as "fanatical drills for invasion of North Korea" and accused Seoul of trying to disguise the "aggressive characteristics" of the exercises.

Of course Seoul says it's routine, but from another official, they say that this exercise was added this year after the bombing of the island.

US warns North Korea on South Korea drills

The White House warned North Korea Wednesday that there was no reason for it to respond to South Korea's military drills as they were "defensive" in nature and well-publicized in advance.

Seoul Slams Chinese Support for N.Korean Use of Nuclear Power

Seoul slammed Beijing on Wednesday for saying North Korea has the right to use nuclear power. "China appears to have lost its discernment and sense of balance," a Foreign Ministry official said.

"It's possible to talk about the right to peaceful use of nuclear power for countries that are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and undergo International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. But neither is the case with the North, which withdrew from the NPT and expelled IAEA inspectors," the official said. "China surely understands this situation but is clouding the issue of the North's denuclearization."

Indeed.

Chinese news coverage of Korean peninsula situation very diff from US media; reports situation at prewar stage. China obviously concerned about 12 hours ago via Tweetie for Mac Retweeted by markmackinnon and 13 others

Militaries of both Koreas seem tired over tension

The South Korean military has remained on alert for almost a month since North Korea’s Nov. 23 attack on Yeonpyeong Island. With Pyongyang also on high alert, both sides are increasingly feeling fatigue.

A military official in Seoul said Wednesday, “Following the attack, we are maintaining our alert status at the highest level of Jindotgae 1, raised the five-grade Watchcon surveillance alert to a Watchcon 2 status, and raising the defense alert in the Yellow Sea to the highest level.”

Seoul has been in a combat readiness posture for nearly a month though allowing soldiers to take vacations.

CONPLAN 5030? Me thinks yes.

The situation for the North Korean military is no different. After the Yeonpyeong attack, Pyongyang declared a state of “quasi-warfare” and informed this to its 8th Navy Fleet at its Yellow Sea Fleet Command of the (North) Korean People’s Army stationed near the Northern Limit Line.

South Korean naval vessels and soldiers are ready for mobilization. A source on North Korea based in Seoul said, “North Korean soldiers are usually locked in mine tunnels in alert situations and have been there for near a month. They must be pretty much exhausted."

This is OBVIOUSLY CONPLAN 5030... now they are waiting for a coup in Pyongyang...

White House rejects resuming nuke talks with N. Korea

The White House said Wednesday that North Korea should live up to its denuclearization obligations and stop belligerent action before resuming the six-party nuclear talks.

Despite the North’s appeasement gestures, Washington apparently indicated that it cannot trust Pyongyang’s rhetoric that is not followed by action.

Well yeah but that might piss off NKorea...

Japan to step up surveillance of Chinese, N. Korean subs

Japan will likely increase its surveillance of Chinese and North Korean military activities, especially those of submarines, in line with a request from the United States.

That's why Japan is buying more submarines.

S. Korea lowers military alert for border islands, other high-tension areas
Does that means that NKorea has backed down in other areas or what? Inviting a NKorean attack?

Analysis: N.Korea's enrichment to complicate any nuclear talks
Ya think? Nuclear talks are a joke.

Thanks for the update Vitchilo! I wonder what will come of the drills that will begin 30km from the border in 10 minutes. Can you imagine if the NK army has been in a mine all this time? I don't see them forming a coup though, they are so brainwashed. I see them waiting loyally, to be sent on a mass wave attack in the early hours of the morning after the initial airstrikes.

Alright here we go...let the drills begin...
No 2nd line needed

This is a very interesting game of chicken.

I'm wondering if the US/Seoul are in communication with high level NK military leaders ... all parties may see this NK leadership transistion as the best opportunity for a military coup and eventual reunification.

There has got to be a lot of paranoia in Pyongyang right now.

Thanks so much for the updates. I hope I don't wake to bad news in the morning - good night all!

Well it's officially on.

W7VOA #ROK largest military land drill of year underway near border with #DPRK. #Koreas 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

Apparently it's not.

W7VOA Despite Defense Ministry confirming in Seoul, on-site pool reporter says #ROK drill hasn't started. #Koreas 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck

W7VOA Chong Wa Dae: #ROK Pres. Lee visiting Army unit near #DPRK border. #Koreas 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

Come on North Korea! Attack NOW!

W7VOA Pool report: #ROK live-firing of artillery during drill witnessed from 1442KST. #Koreas 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

So apparently it did begin 10 minutes ago.

S.Korea Considering Use of Gwangyang Port for US Forces

South Korea says it is considering allowing the U.S. to use Gwangyang Port on the southern coast to bring in additional forces to the nation in the event of an emergency.

Should have been done years ago...