Originally posted by dwh0
I think over time NATO will just evolve in to a Eu/NATO hybrid as the union forms a better bong between counties.
No comment on your serendipitous spelling . . .
Most reporting on the EU is Franco/Germano-centric. Much of the old Eastern block (Czech, Slovakia, Poland, Baltic states, Balkans outside of serbia)
see the new NATO as more dynamic than ever. Their biggest concern is a re-invigorated Russian expansion to the west, or of a Franco-German
imperialism that dictates economic policy to the rest of europe.
I am involved in the european financial markets in a professional capacity, and for what it's worth, I'll tell you what I think most Americans and
1. There's a definite convergence of German and French policy within EU legislation.
2. French and Germans have tilted economic policy so far in their favor that it is seriously destabilizing the Euro, as the financial picture in
southern europe varies more and more from that along the channel.
3. In my contacts with citizens of the old warsaw pact, there is a lot of animosity to a centralized currency that perpetuates mercantilism, i.e. low
cost raw materials from Eastern Europe, and expensive finished products from the west that the East must have in order to modernize. The supporters
of UK/US in Iraq are Poland and the Baltic states. They are currying favor in what they see coming from Russian v. Euro expansionism.
Regardless of whether an 'independent' EU military force serves the interest of various parties, here's a couple of predictions that I will
A. The Euro as a unified currency will cease to exist within the next 7 or 8 years; about the time that UK finally gives in to it.
B. EU troops will be deployed in combat (either by individual nations, or jointly) WITHIN EASTERN EUROPE by 2010, and maybe a lot sooner. [if you
think this is impossible, consider the yugoslav campaign in the 1990's.]
C. By 2010, the land that is now Iraq will belong to at least 3 separate states, or else to countries currently bordering Iraq. (Probably Turkei and
Iran will have annexed portions, unless there are 1 or more 'Kurdistans')
D. Genocide as an imperialistic policy taking place in the "2nd World" of developing countries.
Americans (and Brits too, I'm afraid) have this idea that somehow we reached the end of history with the collapse of the USSR. On the contrary. We
have begun a new phase of decentralization, in which new imperialist powers will begin to assert themselves. THis is exactly what is taking place in
Africa, in the wake of genocide, just as it did with the breakup (decentralization) of Yugoslavia in the 1990's. The hallmark of this
neo-colonialism will be mass genocide, which I expect to see increasing in Africa, SE Europe, and the Malay peninsula.