The Modern World, as we know it, is going to end in the next few decades.
I'm not talking about 2012 or another World War. I'm talking about peak oil and the end of the Oil age. This is not conspiracy theory. This could
happening right now.
Almost every aspect of modern life is dependent on Oil. Transport, mechanised agriculture (Food), energy production, manufacturing and construction
are almost completely reliant on it.
Just for perspective, here’s a list of items made from, or using oil :
Petrol, Diesel, Aviation fuel, Rocket fuel, All Plastics, All paints, All mobile battery technology such as cell phones and laptops, Computer chips,
Fertilizer, Explosives, Car tyres, Certain types of clothing and footwear, Asphalt roads, Detergent, Pharmaceuticals, Solvents, Bearing Grease, Ink,
Insecticide, Food preservatives, Purses, Deodorant, Putty, Dyes, Epoxy, Linoleum, Synthetic rubber, Antifreeze, Balloons and literally hundreds
The importance of Oil in modern life cannot be underestimated. As such, you should be aware that between 40 and 45 countries around the World have
already passed their peak production.
'Peak production', meaning that at no point in the future will those countries ever again be capable of producing the same amount of oil that they did
at their peak. These countries are therefore in production decline, and declining quickly.
United States, peaked in 1970.
Iran, peaked in 1974.
Iraq, peaked in 1979.
United Kingdom, peaked in 1999.
Some will tell you that peak oil figures aren’t reliable, and yes, they may vary depending on which reports you happen to read. Personally I think
the problem is likely to be even worse that what’s publicly known, as countries have been known to vastly bump up their estimated reserves to
protect their production quota from OPEC. Country ‘A’ says they have a certain, agreeable number in reserve, and OPEC retains or increases the
quota the country is allowed to produce, thus earning more money for that country. If a country admits it’s production is dwindling, OPEC reduces
the quota to protect the reserves that are still in that country. Of course, if country A bumps itself up, country B may be losing out, and so they
do the same thing. It’s all about getting money into their country.
You’ll note in that list there are only 14 countries listed as ‘growing’ , and those that are have relatively small reserves, with the exception
of Saudi Arabia who have a very large oil field, amounting to 25% of the remaining unrefined Oil in the World. However, this is simply not enough to
go around. There is no doubt that oil is getting harder and harder to find, with 2/3rd’s of the world’s oil currently coming from oil fields
discovered before 1970.
Oil companies are resorting to searching for fields that are deeper and harder to access. This in turn is more expensive and requires the expenditure
of more energy to extract it. Thus, eventually, the net Oil recovered is not worth the energy spent to reach it in the first place. The era of cheap,
abundant energy is almost over.
Given the ever increasing world population and ever increasing demand for oil, it’s usage cannot be sustained into the future. As Oil production
continues to decline, we’ll begin to see economic and sociological repercussions, as all economies are fundamentally linked to Oil. Many believe
that the current recession is a symptom of the production decline, in tandem with overzealous banking practises.
So why is the World economy fundamentally linked to Oil?
I’ll be quoting Mike Ruppert here because he can explain it far more articulately than I can.
Money is fiat currency. It’s nothing, just paper. In the past, Gold or Silver were used as currency because it’s real, it’s something of value.
Paper has no value. Today, energy(oil) is what backs this meaningless fiat. The world economy is based on petro-dollars, and without the oil, those
dollars are worth nothing. So, Oil is the only real currency in the world economy.
To quote Mike :
“ You cannot print any more money than there is energy to back it up.”
The fractional reserve banking system requires more and more money to be created from thin air and loaned into circulation (with interest) to be
sustainable. It requires infinite growth. However, to have all this extra money in circulation, you also need more energy(Oil) to back it up. But
infinite growth is not compatible with finite energy. As the growth continues, it eventually comes to a point where the declining oil reserves
aren’t enough to back up the amount of petro-dollars in circulation. Right now, the recession has decreased the demand for oil, as recession’s
always do due to decreased construction, travel and various money saving efforts on behalf of companies and individuals alike.
With decreased demand comes lower oil prices and things balance out for a while. Eventually though, prices will rise as reserves dwindle and again the
economy is plunged into chaos. You may have heard the term ‘double dip’ in relation to the recession. Well this will be a multiple dip or
‘undulating plateau’ recession as the price of oil continues to fluctuate.
This is illustrated below :
As you can see, this plateau is expected to last for what could be 5, 10 or 20 years, but it will continue in a ‘long decline’ until oil reserves
get so low and the price in turn gets high enough that nobody can afford it. This is known as the Oil crash, or collapse.
The world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice as large) and much more industrialised (oil-dependent) than it was in
1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket,
oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.
There will be a gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline. Agriculture
(massive food shortages) depends heavily on fertilizers and chemicals made from oil and will be greatly affected. Shortages of other goods made from
oil. Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity. Very serious unemployment. Money will be worthless.
Almost everything we’ve taken for granted in our technological age will be gone. There will be a very real threat of starvation for a large part of
the World’s population. Being self sufficient or having local resources will be the only way forward.
Below is a chart showing the Human Races’ population growth in relation to our oil use.
There’s no doubt the increase in population is directly related to our discovery and use of fossil fuel. A momentary blip on our evolutionary path.
For thousands of years the population is believed to have hovered just under the 1 Billion mark, roughly. If it stayed the same for so long, it seems
to me that that’s the natural number of human beings the Earth can comfortably sustain and support. Natural evolution. Many believe a massive
depopulation due to famine and illness is the likely result of this collapse, and is the only way the human race will return to a natural number that
the earth can sustain. It remains to be seen if we can come up with an alternative energy source before this happens, but many experts believe current
alternative energies will fall far short of demand, especially in the face of ever increasing population. It all depends on how accurate the oil
reserve estimates are. If many of the experts are underestimating the reserves then there’s time to do something about this, but whether the
World’s governments will take action remains to be seen.
A few videos for those interested in hearing more :
A prediction of economic decline from 05 based on peak oil.
I realise this has been discussed on ATS before, but I think it’s no harm to have it discussed again, as it seems to have been a while. Anyone who
finds this interesting is welcome to agree, disagree, attempt to debunk it or call me an alarmist, as you like. But regardless of whether this is
happening now, soon or is still some way off, it WILL happen. I remain hopeful an alternative will be in place by the time the Oil is depleted,
but I’m skeptical that we’ll have enough time given progress so far.
P.S. I’d appreciate if this thread wasn’t used as a vehicle to discuss U.S. Military policy and motivations in the Middle east, thanks.
edit on 18-11-2010 by Project-Sign because: (no reason given)
2030...good lord...Let's get off the panic horse here...This gives you 29 years to slowly adapt to a new way of living.....Not enough for you ??? Ok
try this got an exercise, go to your local car parts store, get a 12 volt deep cycle battery and a cheep solar panel, start with that and learn how
it works and how much power you can draw off of that and work your way to better performing technologies after that....LOL. Petrol will never go away
completely...Heck I'm absolutely positive that right now you are typing away on a plastic keyboard looking at your nice contoured flat screen monitor
next to your plastic telephone.
It's free market finally getting the upper hand on oil I guess and the interest of people to try something new as a renewable source of energy, I say
new here because believe it or not...Even oil is renewable if we do it right.
Bollox. I hate these fear mongering threads that pay absolutely no mind to advances in technology. Yes if we lived in a vacuum stagnant universe
where nothing ever changed, then peak oil would be a huge disaster. Are we running out of oil... maybe... that fact hasn't definitively been proven.
Are their new technologies such as renewable energy, fusion and bioplastics being developed to replace the role that oil plays in our lives... yes.
If you are going to post a thread about how we are running out of oil or clean water for that matter, at least pay lip service to technological
research and development that might avert your crisis.
fair play, yes we are going to run out, but it doesnt have to end badly at all really, the scientific breakthroughs will counter it i believe. and
just think if we get to the point of manifestion matter and using devices which dont require lubrication? antigravity and liquid mercury.
I think maybe its a good thing getting rid of the oil maybe we were never supposed to go down that road? you have to burn the oil to liberate the
energy from it and that has a bad effect on the enviroment, however i am not supporting the apparent fact that its us causing the ever so rapidlly
increasing weather changes, but it has bad effects compared to say free energy devices that we could run our houses on for free and green the
Some people are playing a monopoly game, and there killing the planet, there will be a point where this thing gets too much, its already happening
now, we all saw the gulf oil spill and the figures are coming out that theres a plume under there the size of everest? wtf, why did it have to be so
end of the day we've all gotta make our own judgement on the oil aspect and yes there are ups and downs.
What a load! We are NOT running out. Before the huge oil find in Texas, we already had enough oil to last 1,000 years at current consumption,
without a drop of foreign oil. But the Progressive Communist Demorats won't 'allow' us to use our own oil. Further, it is an assumption that oil is
a fossil fuel. Russia is currently stating that they are finding depleted oil wells are refilling from deep inside the earth. And spacecraft have
found oil on moons in this system, that never had life. So... what were you saying?
ok yer just carry on using your motor, lar de dar de dar, singing everythings gonna be alright?
Our thought patterns are clearly different and you clearly sont get what im trying to say.
i have no need to discuss anything with you.
1000 years.? Have you actually read any data on the subject? And yes, oil on moons in our solar system, that'll help. It'd use up more oil in
construction and rocket fuel than you'd be able to bring back to Earth. Your entire post was nonsense, but thanks for sharing your opinion.
Oil on moons without life means that our oil has not been a waste product of organic matter.
This means the oil comes from something else and we don't know if it is renewable or not. Apparently the Russians think it is...
Just switch from the crap in the ground to make all the products and replace it with HEMP!! Hemp plants can be used to make everything we use oil for
currently, but better, longer lasting, better for our environment, for less money all here in the good old USA! It can be used to make 100% of all
paper products without cutting down anymore trees ever. It grows faster than a tree ever could in a much smaller foot print as well. It's really a no
doubt about it subject really. Hemp is way better and can be transitioned fairly quickly without missing a beat. Then we can be 100% self made in all
of our products and bye bye to all the cash going to Saudi and all the other mud hut countries we send our cash to for oil. Simple done deal.
You know, i'm going to mention something that is related,but not said. All the oil that they took out. You know that they are leaving massive holes
everywhere underground. Maybe one day texas,louisianna or the gulf will sink into deep massive holes. Not the whole state, but earth below them will
just start to sink. Have you not noticed more sink holes on earth happenning? They everywhere, they cannot all be caused by water.
2030. That's 20 years of many technological breakthroughs. By then, I believe we would have found some alternative source. Having said that, if all
crap goes to hell. I will be in my fourties, not giving a #, having learnt all thats necessary to live a life without oil dependancies.
Together with two research colleagues, Vladimir Kutcherov has simulated the process involving pressure and heat that occurs naturally in the inner
layers of the earth, the process that generates hydrocarbon, the primary component in oil and natural gas.
According to Vladimir Kutcherov, the findings are a clear indication that the oil supply is not about to end, which researchers and experts in the
field have long feared.
But I'm all for the cessation of burning hydrocarbon b.s. Gravitational and magnetic seem much more appropriate directions for the sort of
environment we'd consider healthy and habitable.
After witnessing The complete farce that has been the G10 , G12 , G20's attempts to agree on ways to save the planet from climate change , ecological
damage , saving the rainforest , saving whales , saving anything really..........its fair to say that agreeing on anything is a complete bollocks.
250 , 000 people were killed by the earthquake in Haiti. £millions were donated by people all over the world , and a huge percentage of the aid
hasn't even got there , and now to make matters worse , there is a cholera outbreak thats killed over 1000 people while hundreds of thousands of
people are still living in tents.
Do I have faith that the governments of the world can put aside their self-serving "its all about me " attitudes and work together to find a
renewable energy source and change the financial infrastructure of the whole planet ?
people are just too greedy and selfish. The amount of species we have either made extinct or brought to the edge of extinction is shocking , yet we
remain mostly ignorant of it because the companies who are exploiting wildlife , ecosystems , environment , climate , are too concerned with their own
wealth to give a damn about any " concerns "
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