Max Keiser tells the world to Crash JP Morgan, buy silver

reply to post by CosmicCitizen


The whole concept is flawed to say the least. Not to mention there are countless ways to hedge their position.

Generally, IMO, it is just advertising for resellers to make a profit off of the ill-informed. In fact, I am sure this is where the bulk of this scheme lays.

reply to post by CosmicCitizen

Dont chase the markets higher to make them rich but take advantage of eventual lower prices (ie, 1050-1100 gold and 16-17 silver) to accumulate.

Nothing wrong with wanting to take advantage of "lower prices". Of course, you would be betting that lower prices are still ahead, and not behind us.

Everything goes up and down, which is why dollar-cost averaging is a good way to go for those accumulating a postion, but this also implies that a person does not "bet" on a particular short-term future, at a given moment. In other words, it may not be wise to jump into a given investment all at once, but neither is it wise to "assume" that now is "not" a good time. The fact is, we don't really "know" the future, which is why it's prudent to always keep the long-term in front of us, and ignore the short-term noise.

That being said, the other thing to keep in mind is that we are all ham-strung by continually thinking in terms of "dollars" (or whatever fiat you live under). The thinking that we can "make money" in precious metals is in fact backwards. Precious metals, and other commodities have a "value" that is completely separate from how you denominate them. Which means that when you take a commodity position, you are invested in intrinsic value that supersedes fiat money, meaning you have chosen to preserve value / wealth, regardless of vulnerable fiat, subject to radical devaluation, by many non-fundamental factors.

Precious metals isn't about gambling, or even "making money". It's most basic function in uncertain times like these is wealth preservation (in real terms).

SO, this isn't about "chasing a market" at all (or shouldn't be). My recommendation is NOT to wait to buy precious metals. Rather, as Joe Bataglia used to say, "Buy precious metals, and then wait."

JR

reply to post by JR MacBeth


Excellent post JR, by chance a Dallas fan?

Dollar cost averaging should be the only way to play the market(s). Realistically, only a small percentage are good enough to do otherwise.

I would have to disagree though regarding one thing. That it is probably not "best practices" to begin your dollar cost averaging journey at absolute high's of the past 20+ years. Could be a great place to start, who knows - and that is the whole point to DCA - but I would have to believe there are better opportunities in other markets. Or will be in this specific case, but I just lost track of my crystal ball so I could be way off.

See you around.

reply to post by Dance4Life


Yeah, I get that Dallas thing sometimes, with my JR

I'm a big silver fan, have bought and sold for the past dozen years, but I never ever want a client to shoot their whole wad at once, on any one thing. Cost averaging is the way to go, whether a person is accumulating a stock or commodity position, it seldom makes sense to go "all in". Of course, if we knew the future, we could do otherwise, but we don't, so we have to act accordingly.

So much for the "timing" aspect. And then there are such things as fundamentals, even though in these crazy times the notion seems to be taking a back seat. People have been losing their heads a bit the past few years. The chaotic markets should make everyone a bit wary of course, but money has to go somewhere, and even if we choose to hold cash, we still have effectively chosen a "position", in fiat.

I completely hear what you're saying about the "high's" in precious metals right now. I'm sure there are a lot of people who share that sense, but it's the very thing that can paralyze a person who may want to participate in a rise in metals, but who have a hard time overcoming the thing you're talking about. Certainly, if I had never considered precious metals as an investment before, I would tend to look elsewhere (and there are opportunities all over the place when it comes down to it).

But for the person who has spent some time looking into the fundamentals of gold and silver, if after their due diligence they conclude that there is still long-term upside, then they need to follow that, in spite of whatever the current situation is.

Which brings us back to DCA. Perhaps there are people who have the same feelings, gold and silver looks "high", but they've read about fiat vulnerability, or they've heard about advanced technology that utilizes silver, etc., and they want to get in (based on fundamentals). I would still always recommend that "waiting" in this case is wrong. Intuitively, we always want that bargain moment that "should" come in the future, but it doesn't always come at the level we prefer. Meantime, we may have missed out on a quantum price leap! DCA means a person doesn't have to "decide" the big timing. If they want to get in, then they can, but they can also answer that nagging bother about "wrong timing", by simply going in, bit-by-bit.

I have it happen often enough, someone tells me they want to spend "$100K" in metals! I usually want them to slow down, and I might ask them what else they are investing in, etc. Believe it or not, there are people who have cashed completely out of stock, and are ready to put "all" into PM. Of course, if metals should correct even four or five percent in the week following their investment, these are the people who are ready to commit suicide! Insanity.

Of course, if $100K is only five or ten percent of their liquid net worth, then it's a different story. But in that case, I might still suggest that a person "wades in", not blowing their PM allocation immediately, but perhaps going thirds, asking them to consider the next couple of months, looking for "dips", and each time, launch the next portion accordingly. Sure, in a strong bull market, they may not do "better" then having jumped all in at first, but since we don't know the future, then this approach mitigates against that "sudden downturn" (that loves to hit the minute you shoot your whole wad!).

Last thing, silver fundamentals are off the charts in my opinion. I have studied it for years, have attended conferences, have friends who are big bullion dealers, and others who control mining operations. There is no other commodity that offers what silver does, and I would encourage anyone who has never really taken the time to look into it to give it it's due. I don't care that much about crashing a big bank, they have a lot of tricks up their sleeves. My interest is what looks like low risk, with high reward potential. And that should be anyone's interest, whatever the investment of choice. It's always going to be good advice, especially for those still under 40: Look to the long term, and do your best to tune out the noise in between.

JR

reply to post by JR MacBeth


Silver has potential for sure. I think a great spread right now to put on would be short gold long silver - but the ratio is tightening everyday and knowing my luck I'd be last man in. In addition to this I am pretty big on the yield curve continuing to flatten. A lot of opportunity in bonds right now.

I still can't shake the feeling personally that is hasn't done absolutely anything in 3 +/- decades (silver). In addition there are so many retail players in that boat. Regardless, diversification and dollar cost averaging are the two keys to victory.

Silver most likely heads to mid 30's soon it would seem - but I personally think it will mimic the recent moves of cotton and sharply pull back which should give us another solid opportunity.

Good luck to us both. Take it easy.

reply to post by Dance4Life

yes, contracts (options and futures) expire and must either be "rolled over" or settled via cash or delivery (if carried into the delivery process past last trading day - oldest longs hit first). what we dont know is the amount of short futures contracts that are covered with call options or cash silver,,,,,altho my guess is that the net short position is still great. but at the same time they have the firepower to cover some and then come in at higher levels and resell (ie today) or roll them over into expiration (via spreads; buy dec futures -- sell mch).

reply to post by Dance4Life


Cotton did have a quick ~25% correction but I think that the Sugar mkt is a better analogy.

Max Keiser from Beirut, Lebanon: "Money in Motion"
Mar 1, 2011

AJ: Max, why are you in Lebanon ?

MK: ....I'm talking with people, meeting with bankers, meeting with fund managers and high net-worth individuals convincing them to buy Silver....

youtube

Call him what you want, just don't call him bearish PM's