Madeleine McCann: Vector Addition.

reply to post by starchild10


I know!

All of the diners that night were doctors apart from the mother of one of the Mccanns's friends. They could all afford baby sitters but they all choose to leave their children unattended in the apartments and check in on them every now and again, according to some witnesses they didn't do this very often. That alone is a crime in my opinion. How long would it take a child to fall from a chair, or strangle themselves on something?

I also think that the reason the tapas seven came up with stories to go along with the McCann's version of the night was that they may all have been sedating their children or feared neglect charges themselves. They are all very odd parents to leave their children like that.

excellent analysis and insight, it's posts like this that keep me coming back to ATS!

I have always been intrigued by this case, as with many, it felt off from the start, from the immediate and full on media campaign within hours of the report, to the squirming of the McCanns and their departure from Portugal when the questioning got a bit too close for comfort.

It makes sense that the actual crime happened the previous day/night, in fact it's logical, particularly looking at the speed in which the UK Foreign Office sprang into action. It is really improbable that within such a small time frame, that so many people were involved, so much so that the UK media were all over it from the get go.

Any recommended reading on this case?

reply to post by ipsedixit


Sometimes subconsciously a guilty conscience will try and find a way of expressing itself .

reply to post by celticniall

There are some quite good videos on the web that give the bare bones of the story. The "48 Hours" program in the states did a reasonable job of outlining the case. There are also archives of information about the case, including archives of the official case files of the Policia Judiciaria (those that have not been held back). There are numerous blogs that sometimes have interesting information.

A good place to start is the website, www.mccannfiles.com:

mccannfiles.com...

Recently it was revealed that a wee small note of common sense, reflective of professionalism in the Leicestershire constabulary had managed to make it's way into the light of public awareness.

mccannfiles.com...

M/S Kate McCann in her book Madeleine has now provided an excerpt from the official submission of Leicester Police to the court regarding the matter and outlining the reasons why they could not agree to provide the documents. Signed by the assistant chief constable of Leicestershire it runs:

"While one or both of them may be innocent, there is no clear evidence that eliminates them from involvement in Madeleine's disappearance."

Thankyou Mr. Chief Constable. If there were a "Rock of Gibraltar" award for remaining immoveable on a slippery surface, I would nominate you, although I don't think you would beat Goncalo Amaral, the undoubted favorite for the prize.

I found it disgusting and appalling that when the book excerpts were in the newspapers, not only did Kate but also the papers and even some readers on the letter pages condemn so called "conspiracy theorist nutjobs" for disbelieving the McCann side of the story.

If only the truth were outed sooner than later, then see where people stand on it.

This is posted in the spirit of speculative discussion only and is not intended as an accusation of wrongdoing.

Originally posted by DrHammondStoat
Well I really hope their latest publicity backfires on them, my only worry is that the Mccann's have friends in high places that will protect them.

I think that what happened is that "friends in high places" made the mistake, very early on, of committing to support the McCann's version of events. The Foreign Office in particular seems to have been guilty of a horrendous error of judgement in releasing a statement to the press, essentially endorsing the parents' version of what happened within two hours of the announcement of the child's disappearance.

For that to happen, in itself raises questions of insider influence being brought to bear on the institution of the Foreign Office. The nature of the case, an alleged child abduction, might lead even the most relentless critics of the FO or of the government of then Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to hold fire and give the FO a pass under the circumstances.

However, if it should come out that the British Foreign Office has been tricked into supporting a lie told by criminals, the embarrassment and the repercussions to those involved could be very serious.

Any criminal clever enough to enlist the Foreign Office as an endorser of his version of events will have set up a formidible barrier to police investigations to unmask him, because these investigations would also unmask very important political personages and powerful functionaries in the FO as dupes.

I believe that political operatives of one sort and another were involved in this case in less than an hour from the official announcement of Madeleine's disappearance at roughly 10:00 PM GMT May 3, 07, and possibly even hours ahead of this announcement.

In the ensuing weeks many famous and influential people rallied publicly to the support of the McCanns.

Personally, I believe that if the McCanns are guilty and if the police would have charged anyone else in a similar situation, that charges have not been filed in this case, because friends in high places are not so much protecting the McCanns as protecting themselves.

There is something deeply politically saavy about how the McCanns have acted in their circumstances.

Like a weak swimmer drowning, who somehow handcuffs himself to a powerful swimmer, who is then compelled to save them both, the McCanns appear to have been superb force multipliers in the situation.

Can you imagine the uproar if they were found to be guilty? I'm sure it would blow the lid off any previous judgement against a killer parent, especially with the deception involved in this case.

IF they are innocent, they have distinctly bad social skills to act appropriately, then and now. IF they are guilty, which I suspect is the case sadly, then the likelihood is they will stay publically innocent, because the officials who have backed them up have so much face to lose over this.

reply to post by invetro

If they are guilty, a veritable crapstorm of political and legal chaos will ensue. Issues of financial fraud will enter into the discussion as well as a labyrinth of interlocking legal liabilities.

It would be a gigantic mess.

The only way that this will be resolved is through the will of the Conservative Party in the UK. Labour is compromised.

If the police bring pressure to bear on certain members of the "Tapas 7" and if the Conservatives have the political will to open up this can of worms, the case might be resolved.

I thought I should add something to the thread regarding the "scent of death" found in Ocean Club 5A by the cadaver dog, Eddie.

Gerry McCann has addressed this issue, but attempted to deflect it by saying that the children (Sean in particular) had eaten sea bass and had introduced traces of cadaverine from the sea bass into the apartment.

This objection, to the idea that the dog indicated that someone, and Madeleine is the only possible candidate, died in the apartment, faces the same difficulty as the notion that Kate introduced the scent from her medical practice.

The fact is that the distribution of the scent, none in the kitchen area, none on Sean's clothing, none on the children's cots, none on the furniture, and the very few instances of it, argue against sea bass cadaverine being the origin of the scent.

There are other technical, scientific issues in connection to sea bass cadaverine that weigh on any discussion of it, but the distribution of the scent in the apartment is sufficient to rule out sea bass cadaverine as a source of the scent, in my view.

Fans of Dr. Martin Roberts' essays on mccannfiles.com, and I'm one of them, will be pleased to see that he is turning his attention to an examination of the McCann's movements leading up to the 3rd of May.

Look for the article Bunkered at:

mccannfiles.com...

Dr. Roberts is looking at things like the creche records and the statements of one of the nannies, Catriona Baker, and checking them against the statements of the McCanns, looking for discrepancies.

This is ground that has also been examined very intelligently by the blogger at the unterdenteppichgekehrt (translation: Sweptunderthecarpet) blog. The blog is bilingual: German/English.

unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com...

This is a very important and potentially fruitful part of this case. I'm looking forward to whatever else these analysts have to say on this subject.

Edit: I changed the link to the unterdenteppichgekehrt blog so that it leads directly to the blogger's reconstruction of the events leading up to Kate's revelation that Madeleine was missing. This reconstruction is very worthwhile reading.

Originally posted by DrHammondStoat
I think the priest Father Pacheco, also fits into the fridge scenario. He says he was 'decieved' by the couple. He also let the Kate and Gerry have the keys to the church so that they could 'pray' whenever they wanted to around the clock.
. . . .

Personally I suspect the body was stored in a fridge at the church and then transported somewhere to be disposed of. If the priest was aware of this did the Mccann's confess to him that Madeleine had died in an accident ? Is he then bound by his vows to keep quiet? I'm appalled that religious rules would stop someone reporting the potential killing of a child and concealment of the body. Can the police really not push it any further?

Interesting that you make these observations about the priest.

When Madeleine first went "missing", within a day or two of it, I asked someone I know, who is quite psychic, to see what could be gleaned on a psychic level about her, what had happened to her and where she might be.

This person told me of an impression of her being transported on the highway and of seeing a road sign with a peculiar name of a town on it. The name had an X in it, which is highly unusual. The psychic said that it was difficult to put the spelling together but that the place name seemed to end in xere.

I went to Google Earth and took a look at the vicinity of Lagos and Praia da Luz and was shocked to see a village named Odiaxere!! I just about fell off my chair. I thought, maybe the kidnapper has taken her to Odiaxere.

I went back to the psychic with the news but that person was much less enthusiastic about the revelation than I was. The psychic said that I needed a little primer on "psychic stuff".

The psychic went on to say that because so many people had Madeleine on their minds, the "psychic airwaves" as it were, were crowded with people's meditations and musings and obsessive wonderings about what had happened to the girl. Anyone tuning in to Madeleine might pick up a lot of impressions from people who had nothing to do with the disappearance but were wondering themselves about it.

That was a letdown. But the psychic said that the possible reference to Odiaxere was particularly strong.

Much later I found out that the priest, Father Pacheco, has a home in Odiaxere. Taken together, the psychic, the home in Odiaxere, the Smith's sighting near the church in Praia da Luz, caused me to give a lot of thought to possible ways in which Father Pacheco could have been enlisted by the McCanns to help them.

It is definitely an intriguing line of speculation.

Of course, from the psychic point of view, it might simply have been that Father Pacheco was just deeply concerned about the situation, and had it on his mind that day as he was driving home.

But the psychic had been trying to locate Madeleine and came up with the visual of journeying on the highway.

The priest definitely occupies a tight spot in the story. Even if he actually knows nothing of importance, people believe the contrary. That must be difficult.

As readers of the complete thread know, I believe that Madeleine McCann is dead. The indications of the scent of death in Ocean Club 5A found by the cadaver dog, Eddie, have settled that issue for me.

However, recently the McCanns have succeeded in getting a review of their case by Scotland Yard. A British tabloid, The Daily Star has gone so far as to say

www.dailystar.co.uk...

POLICE have finally admitted Madeleine McCann was abducted four years ago.

Her parents Kate and Gerry had fought authorities to accept she was snatched from their holiday apartment in Portugal.

But only now have detectives put in writing that her case is one of abduction.

There is no direct quote from the police in this story and I have been unable to find such a categorical statement directly from the police on the web. I doubt that the police are convinced that Madeleine was abducted by a stranger.

Sightings of anomalous blonde tots anywhere are not evidence of abduction, even if the tots in question all had colobomas.

Speaking of colobomas, aside from the use of Madeleine's coloboma as a logo for the "Find Madeleine" campaign, I have heard of no other constructive use of this feature of the little sweetheart's face being used by anyone to aid in the search for her.

I would like to suggest a constructive avenue of investigation, in the search for Madeleine, that would make use of what is known about colobomas and enlist the help of the world's medical community.

Colobomas are not unusual, according to what I have read, but they are not that common either.

According to one study of the incidence of colobomas per live birth in the United States,

archopht.ama-assn.org...

Incidence, Ocular Findings, and Systemic Associations of Ocular Coloboma
A Population-Based Study

Kelly M. Nakamura, BS; Nancy N. Diehl, BS; Brian G. Mohney, MD

Ocular coloboma occurred in 1 in 2077 live births. More than half of the patients were diagnosed as having an ocular disorder other than coloboma, including strabismus and amblyopia in approximately one-third. Two-thirds of patients were diagnosed as having a nonocular disorder, including CHARGE syndrome in 1 in 8 patients.

I am not qualified to discuss the medical conditions that accompany incidents of coloboma and I am not going to go into a resume of the conditions associated with CHARGE syndrome, except to say that it involves the blood circulatory system.

Madeleine McCann was approaching her fourth birthday when she "disappeared" in may of 2007. In May of 2012 she will be nine years old if still alive.

There are very few children between the ages of four and nine who do not wind up at the doctor's office at some time for some reason, even if only for a check up. That means that if Madeleine is alive, she has very likely been seen by a medical doctor who will have a record of her visit and who will have noted the presence of the coloboma or, in a sinister but very possible scenario, the absence of her right eye.

We are talking about a female caucasian child, born 12/05/2003, who will have been represented as being between the ages of three and ten and who will have a coloboma on her right eye or who may be wearing cosmetic contact lenses, or who may be missing a right eye.

Here is a link for statistics on world population by age and sex maintained by the Census Bureau of the United States.

www.census.gov...

If you do a search for the year 2012, you will find that there are estimated to be 293,758,548 female children between the ages of 5 and 9 expected to be living at that time.

Obviously the police can't riffle through a stack of that many female children in the world, hunting for Madeleine. But . . . Madeline is a caucasian child and would be one of a smaller group of female children.

How many caucasian female children are expected to be alive in 2012? I don't think anyone really knows, but it might still be useful to make an educated guess as to their number, even though the result might be off significantly.

In this day of political correctness, it is hard to come by statistical studies calibrated strictly by race. We have to employ what is known, not pejoratively, as fuzzy logic.

In the following table the Global Population is broken down by geographical area.

anthro.palomar.edu...



Of course, all geographical zones are inhabited, if only in trace amounts, by all "races".

Granting that, and knowing that parts of the globe are significantly racially mixed, I think we can come up with a not too unreasonable estimation of the number of female caucasian children between the ages of 5 and 9 expected to be alive in 2012. A number that would certainly be challenged by statisticians and by those who study ethnography and global population trends, but which, nevertheless, would make an interesting figure to look at, in the context of the search for Madeleine McCann.

For purposes of discussion, I am counting the following regions as caucasian:

Europe (including nations that
were part of the Soviet Union) 803,000,000 12.9%

North America (U.S. and Canada) 320,000,000 5.1%

Near East 179,000,000 2.9%

Obviously people in the Near East, would not, for the most part be comparable to Madeleine McCann in physical characteristics, she being your typical nordic blonde, but in choosing to include this percentage of people in the caucasian category, I am attempting to compensate for leaving out Latin America and the Carribean, where there are certainly nordic blondes and even more caucasians, but where the populations are so racially mixed that coming up with a figure for caucasians in these regions would entail more research than I am willing to do.

So, for the purposes of discussion, I am going to say that 20.9% of the world's population as of 2002 was caucasian. For the sake of simplicity, let's say the figure is an even 20% of the global population is caucasian.

20% of 293,758,548 (females between 5 and 9 expected in 2012) = 58,751,710 (rounded to the nearest whole number).

Thus we expect to see 58,751,710 caucasian females between the ages of 5 and 9 in the year 2012.

Knowing that ocular coloboma occurred in 1 in 2077 live births in a study in the United States (see above), we must multiply 2077 by two to restrict the statistic to female children, giving us a rate of colobomas of 1 in 4154 live births of female children in the United States.

Using this figure for the world as a whole might not be justified but for the purposes of this discussion only, let us see what we come up with.

58,751,710 caucasian females divided by 4154 colobomas per live female birth gives us a figure of 14,143 colobomas among female caucasian children between the ages of 5 and 9.

Wow!!!

That is not a big number . . . worldwide.

Now we are told, in legend and history, that Scotland Yard is a real police force. Not a fake police force playing fake games. A real police force.

Surely I do not have to make suggestions as to what Scotland Yard should be doing with a statistic like the one above. Surely they will be canvassing the medical associations in all the most likely spots a missing child might wind up.

Is Madeleine McCann on some MD's records already?

Come on Scotland Yard. Get on it.

"There is no direct quote from the police in this story and I have been unable to find such a categorical statement directly from the police on the web. I doubt that the police are convinced that Madeleine was abducted by a stranger."


Well it looks like the Mccanns are still having the media spin events entirely to their advantage doesn't it? I really don't know whether this is because our media are completely xenophobic and refuse to suspect them or if it's their friends in high places looking out for them again. You're right in other recent articles there is no mention of this official police admission that she was abducted.

There's a collection of articles here about the latest events ; joana-morais.blogspot.com...

One of the scape goats.....sorry leads.... the British police are following up on is a convicted child rapist who has since died (ideal, blame someone who's can't talk about it now!) I thought this quote shows the hypocrisy of the British police in this case;

included in the files taken by Scotland Yard are investigations the agency carried out into Raymond Hewlett, a convicted British paedophile who was in Portugal when Madeleine went missing and left for Morocco three weeks later. Hewlett, an ex-soldier and convicted child rapist, died of throat cancer aged 64 in Germany last year having refused to talk to detectives about Madeleine's disappearance.

So his unwillingness to discuss Madelines disapearance is suspicious but Kate Mccann refusing to answer any of the police questions about it is fine

((edit to add, it was private investigators that were looking at this lead not Scotland yard yet. still the logic applies I think))


Most of the British public believe the fallacy that Madeline was abducted yet there's no evidence for . Right from start the Mccann's have been the ones pushing this story and the British media continue to support it. When Kate Mccann raised the alarm she was heard to say "They'vetaken her!" How could she know that more than one person had taken her child? What an odd thing to say.

Then you have the inconsistent stories from the Mccann's on the windows, doors, shutters etc. and how they were left open, locked, not locked, forced open etc. No physical evidence was found of a break in. There was also Gerry's ridiculous insistence that he checked on the children but did not notice the abductor that must have been present in his children's tiny bedroom if the timings from his statements are true.

The Mccann's also like to state that they were 'cleared' as suspects by the Portuguese, they were not, the case was merely shelved and the suspect status is still there if the case is re-opened.

I really think Madeline deserves justice for what happened but it seems our police and media refuse to look at this case objectively. It worries me that the Scotland yard will eventually give up after a show of investigating various leads and that was the intention all along.

Couldn't agree more.

A lot of people who haven't followed this case don't really have a feel for the personalities and character of Kate and Gerry McCann. They are inclined to take them for the people they appear to be on the surface.

The following video is a rare case where a significant character flaw in the couple seems, if facts reported in the media are correct, to be seen clearly. I'm talking about this tendancy to massage their story to suit the situation and in this case, to appear to lie outright about one of the facts of the case.

It is known from the media and rogatory statements that Rachel Oldfield booked the Tapas bar for the holiday group of nine, including Kate and Gerry, for the week of their stay in Praia da Luz. They had a reservation at the restaurant the night of Madeleine's disappearance. But listen to what Gerry says concerning their chances of getting into the Tapas bar that night.



Obviously Gerry is under no obligation to tell the truth to the media about an established fact. But why would anyone lie in these circumstances? Would lying to the media, where one is under no obligation to tell the truth, serve to confuse the public about this case? I think so.

reply to post by ipsedixit


Might I ask if you are THE "Dr Martin Roberts"?

I don't want to put you on the spot, but recently this case has rather become an obsession of mine.

Your use of English, and dry wit, to my admittedly "untrained" eye seem very similar!

Merry Christmas!

R3

allegedly Kate Mc Cann went back to check on the kids and when she "found" Madeline gone she called from the balcony to the tapas folk " we've lost her" if it was my child i would screaming the place down "Madeline is gone!" "we've lost her" is a medical term for dead! sorry if this has been mentioned already!

Originally posted by meremortal
allegedly Kate Mc Cann went back to check on the kids and when she "found" Madeline gone she called from the balcony to the tapas folk " we've lost her" if it was my child i would screaming the place down "Madeline is gone!" "we've lost her" is a medical term for dead! sorry if this has been mentioned already!

Hi

I agree, but the words I remember KM saying to the table were "they'be taken her!" and "we've let her down!" - now remember, as the crow flies, it is 49.2 metres from KM's 5A apartment balcony to the tapas table - so what does she do? Instead of simply screaming for help from the balcony, she abandons the two comatose twins (they never woke up once during all the pre and post midnight commotion, with 20 people traipsing through the apt and in my view purposely destroying the crime scene, but only six of them would know what really happened - the rest were allowed free reign...) - any normal mother would never leave two precious tots alone for the 3 mInutes or so it would take to run to the table and drag back well sozzled reinforcents - 10-12 bootlegs of wine were drunk that evenivht, not including cocktails/beers too - I have been studying this for quite some time now and suggest you read this...

Best, R3

unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.com...

Apologies for my iPhone spelling, I hope you get the gist.

I feel confident now that I'm close to putting it all together.

Merry Christmas!

R3

There is most certainly something amiss with this tragic incident.

A very high percentage of murders are committed by a person known to you - very few instances of a total stranger leaping out from behind a bush and grabbing you to murder you. The percentages and empirical evidence for being related/known to your murderer are not good for the parents.

Wealthy people who could afford a flash holiday could no doubt afford a nanny let alone a baby sitter to watch the Children for a single night...hmmm...

Traipsing to the room several times during the night does not suggest to me the actions of educated and wealthy people - does not make sense to me...hmmm...

Thoughts on the death scent - is the death scent generic as in the scent of decaying flesh? If it is a generic death scent and not a scent directly related to an item that Madeleine endowed with her personal scent - then - the dog may have indicated a separate scent behind the couch - just a thought.

However on the ledge and everywhere else suggests - either the little girl - God awful image there - the little girl Madeleine or her belongings/clothes could have been moved about.

As for the babies sleeping through all the visitors to the apartment once the alarm was raised - not having a bar of that. I hate to say it but I feel that Madeleine has passed over and was indeed murdered - by her parents - who knows. The parents certainly did not look like they were holidaying - a holiday does not mean leaving the Children unattended while you run back and forth to check on them - that is not holiday/relaxing behaviour.

The story is most disturbing due to the fact that educated parents - left their Children alone at all and as wealthy people were too stingy to pay a babysitter or nanny to care for their most beloved Children. Holidays are for relaxing - how do you relax by running back and forth to your holiday apartment???? Too many holes for me and I imagine the truth will fizz to the surface - it always does.

Much Peace...

There is most certainly something amiss with this tragic incident.

Deep down the rabbit hole. Z

A very high percentage of murders are committed by a person known to you - very few instances of a total stranger leaping out from behind a bush and grabbing you to murder you. The percentages and empirical evidence for being related/known to your murderer are not good for the parents.

Read the stats at Goncalo Amaral's site

Read his online book, the stats given to h by the uk police about abductions/fratricide

Wealthy people who could afford a flash holiday could no doubt afford a nanny let alone a baby sitter to watch the Children for a single night...hmmm...


Think swinging

Think pedophilia

All the kids may have been sedated in one room

Why did only David Payne have a high tech 100 metre listening device

I could go on and on..

Traipsing to the room several times during the night does not suggest to me the actions of educated and wealthy people - does not make sense to me...hmmm...

Correct, there are other reasons

Thoughts on the death scent - is the death scent generic as in the scent of decaying flesh?

Yes, it is called cadaverine

If it is a generic death scent and not a scent directly related to an item that Madeleine endowed with her personal scent - then - the dog may have indicated a separate scent behind the couch - just a thought.

Suggest you read dr Martin Roberts articles at mccanfiles

He takes apart all the dog doubters



However on the ledge and everywhere else suggests - either the little girl - God awful image there - the little girl Madeleine or her belongings/clothes could have been moved about.

See the guy above

Cuddle cat wasnot on a ledge, it was on maddies under in bed

Crime scene photos prove this


As for the babies sleeping through all the visitors to the apartment once the alarm was raised - not having a bar of that. I hate to say it but I feel that Madeleine has passed over and was indeed murdered - by her parents - who knows. The parents certainly did not look like they were holidaying -

One video as the 9 were en route to the resort saying direct to video

# off, I'm not here to enjoy myself

Several cop interviews tell that for example GM and km were at

Meetings

One day at a meeting they were pissed that they forgot to picked maddie up fr
From the crèche

Had to leave the meeting early

This was no ordinary holiday



a holiday does not mean leaving the Children unattended while you run back and forth to check on them - that is not holiday/relaxing behaviour.

Absolutely

The story is most disturbing due to the fact that educated parents - left their Children alone at all and as wealthy people were too stingy to pay a babysitter or
MArk Warner holidays provided evening babysitters either free or at a subsidised cost

There is a reason they didn't want nannies around in the evenings

to care for their most beloved Children. Holidays are for relaxing - how do you relax by running back and forth to your holiday apartment????


Also, there is the problem of the number of apts to visit, with keys needed for each one

I could write 5 pages on this alone...


Too many holes for me and I imagine the truth will fizz to the surface - it always does.


Alas not

Tony Blair put a 100 year d notice on the Dunblane massacre in Scotland

Friend Blair was speaking to Gerry McCann directly on the phone

The labour govt in 2007 greased all the wheels

Or

More accurately

Used vats of superglue all over the case

Much Peace...


And too you

Let's hope the Streisand effect kicks in

The net cannot be controlled - yet

Merry Christmas

My thoughts and prayers are with Maddie right now, and always will be

Sorry for grammar/spacing etc

iPhone ! B