As readers of the complete thread know, I believe that Madeleine McCann is dead. The indications of the scent of death in Ocean Club 5A found by the
cadaver dog, Eddie, have settled that issue for me.
However, recently the McCanns have succeeded in getting a review of their case by Scotland Yard. A British tabloid, The Daily Star
has gone so
far as to say
POLICE have finally admitted Madeleine McCann was abducted four years ago.
Her parents Kate and Gerry had fought authorities to accept she was snatched from their holiday apartment in Portugal.
But only now have detectives put in writing that her case is one of abduction.
There is no direct quote from the police in this story and I have been unable to find such a categorical statement directly from the police on the
web. I doubt that the police are convinced that Madeleine was abducted by a stranger.
Sightings of anomalous blonde tots anywhere are not evidence of abduction, even if the tots in question all had colobomas.
Speaking of colobomas, aside from the use of Madeleine's coloboma as a logo for the "Find Madeleine" campaign, I have heard of no other constructive
use of this feature of the little sweetheart's face being used by anyone to aid in the search for her.
I would like to suggest a constructive avenue of investigation, in the search for Madeleine, that would make use of what is known about colobomas and
enlist the help of the world's medical community.
Colobomas are not unusual, according to what I have read, but they are not that common either.
According to one study of the incidence of colobomas per live birth in the United States,
Incidence, Ocular Findings, and Systemic Associations of Ocular Coloboma
A Population-Based Study
Kelly M. Nakamura, BS; Nancy N. Diehl, BS; Brian G. Mohney, MD
Ocular coloboma occurred in 1 in 2077 live births. More than half of the patients were diagnosed as having an ocular disorder other than coloboma,
including strabismus and amblyopia in approximately one-third. Two-thirds of patients were diagnosed as having a nonocular disorder, including
CHARGE syndrome in 1 in 8 patients.
I am not qualified to discuss the medical conditions that accompany incidents of coloboma and I am not going to go into a resume of the conditions
associated with CHARGE syndrome, except to say that it involves the blood circulatory system.
Madeleine McCann was approaching her fourth birthday when she "disappeared" in may of 2007. In May of 2012 she will be nine years old if still
There are very few children between the ages of four and nine who do not wind up at the doctor's office at some time for some reason, even if only for
a check up. That means that if Madeleine is alive, she has very likely been seen by a medical doctor who will have a record of her visit and who will
have noted the presence of the coloboma or, in a sinister but very possible scenario, the absence of her right eye.
We are talking about a female caucasian child, born 12/05/2003, who will have been represented as being between the ages of three and ten and who will
have a coloboma on her right eye or who may be wearing cosmetic contact lenses, or who may be missing a right eye.
Here is a link for statistics on world population by age and sex maintained by the Census Bureau
of the United States.
If you do a search for the year 2012, you will find that there are estimated to be 293,758,548 female children between the ages of 5 and 9 expected to
be living at that time.
Obviously the police can't riffle through a stack of that many female children in the world, hunting for Madeleine. But . . . Madeline is a caucasian
child and would be one of a smaller group of female children.
How many caucasian female children are expected to be alive in 2012? I don't think anyone really knows, but it might still be useful to make an
educated guess as to their number, even though the result might be off significantly.
In this day of political correctness, it is hard to come by statistical studies calibrated strictly by race. We have to employ what is known, not
, as fuzzy logic.
In the following table the Global Population is broken down by geographical area.
Of course, all geographical zones are inhabited, if only in trace amounts, by all "races"
Granting that, and knowing that parts of the globe are significantly racially mixed, I think we can come up with a not too unreasonable estimation of
the number of female caucasian children between the ages of 5 and 9 expected to be alive in 2012. A number that would certainly be challenged by
statisticians and by those who study ethnography and global population trends, but which, nevertheless, would make an interesting figure to look at,
in the context of the search for Madeleine McCann.
For purposes of discussion, I am counting the following regions as caucasian:
Europe (including nations that
were part of the Soviet Union) 803,000,000 12.9%
North America (U.S. and Canada) 320,000,000 5.1%
Near East 179,000,000 2.9%
Obviously people in the Near East, would not, for the most part be comparable to Madeleine McCann in physical characteristics, she being your typical
nordic blonde, but in choosing to include this percentage of people in the caucasian category, I am attempting to compensate for leaving out Latin
America and the Carribean, where there are certainly nordic blondes and even more caucasians, but where the populations are so racially mixed that
coming up with a figure for caucasians in these regions would entail more research than I am willing to do.
So, for the purposes of discussion, I am going to say that 20.9% of the world's population as of 2002 was caucasian. For the sake of simplicity, let's
say the figure is an even 20% of the global population is caucasian.
20% of 293,758,548 (females between 5 and 9 expected in 2012) = 58,751,710 (rounded to the nearest whole number).
Thus we expect to see 58,751,710 caucasian females between the ages of 5 and 9 in the year 2012.
Knowing that ocular coloboma occurred in 1 in 2077 live births in a study in the United States (see above), we must multiply 2077 by two to restrict
the statistic to female
children, giving us a rate of colobomas of 1 in 4154 live births of female children in the United States.
Using this figure for the world as a whole might not be justified but for the purposes of this discussion only, let us see what we come up with.
58,751,710 caucasian females divided by 4154 colobomas per live female birth gives us a figure of 14,143 colobomas among female caucasian children
between the ages of 5 and 9.
That is not a big number . . . worldwide
Now we are told, in legend and history, that Scotland Yard is a real
police force. Not a fake police force playing fake games. A real police
Surely I do not have to make suggestions as to what Scotland Yard should be doing with a statistic like the one above. Surely they will be canvassing
the medical associations in all the most likely spots a missing child might wind up.
Is Madeleine McCann on some MD's records already?
Come on Scotland Yard. Get on it.
edit on 21-12-2011 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)