US-China are in a Cold War!!! Let today's events be a WAKE UP CALL.

The US/China Cold War

A cold war or cold warfare is a state of conflict between nations that does not involve direct military action but is pursued primarily through economic and political actions, propaganda, acts of espionage or proxy wars waged by surrogates.

China and the United States have been edging up against each other for quite some time, but I think the time has come to fully admit that we are in a Cold War edging toward more direct proxy wars or outright confrontation.

Today's provocative launch off the coast of California reminds me an awful lot of another mysterious launch lately, the so called "UFOs" in China, which are most likely tests of interceptor missiles.

Space and missile experts will now be working with these and other stories, and with whatever photographs manage to slip out of China. The information may help supplement much more detailed measurements from U.S. military assets. The result could provide significant insights into the nature of the interceptor’s kill mechanism and the range of its potential target missiles…..Some caution is still prudent. So far there's no confirmation from U.S. military intelligence…However, the timing is consistent with the way Beijing released information about the test….the Chinese have a long history of reporting space and missile events as UFOs, and with the Norway experience so fresh in our minds, reaching a similar conclusion is reasonable.

Could today's launch so close to one of our most populated cities, subsequent denial and faux confusion be intentionally modeled to resemble the Chinese "UFO sightings"? Our clever way of telling China...."Gotcha"? Are we in a Cold War? Lets look at a time line of economics...

Late 2009

Obama Imposes Protectionist Tariff on Chinese Tires

a move that fulfills his campaign promise to "crack down" on imports that unfairly undermine American workers but risks angering the nation's second-largest trading partner.

China Responds, Slapping Tariffs on US Chicken

The Chinese government’s strong countermove followed a weekend of nationalistic vitriol against the United States on Chinese Web sites in response to the tire tariff. “The U.S. is shameless!” said one posting, while another called on the Chinese government to sell all of its huge holdings of Treasury bonds.

Wooo! Glad they didn't dump those bonds. And on that note, doesn't the consideration of such a drastic option of selling off US bonds signal an obvious, deeper animosity between the two nations? We're all probably familiar with the Tire/Chicken debacle, but did you know that in March of this year China decided to slap even higher tarifs on?

a second set of tariffs on U.S. chicken products in less than three months, this time on the result of an investigation that found that subsidies had created an unfair advantage for U.S. chicken producers.

Why? An investigation of US farm subsidies? Its plain to see that this is less tied to the original tire/chicken deal then it is to China and the US's increasing perception of threat from each other. Sure its the raising of an old tariff. But the old tariff was imposed over tires...this is a stand alone action based on US subsidies, a somewhat more covert and practically new tariff, less directly provoked by the US.

The economic front doesn't stop there. Fast forward to November of this year.

Brazil will be looking to fight a "currency war" it sees underway between the United States and China that is threatening its export sector, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Wednesday. "I am going to the G20 to fight" this, he said in a joint media conference with his elected successor, Dilma Rousseff, who takes over as Brazilian president in January. Lula said he and Rousseff would be going to the November 11-12 meeting in Seoul, called by the South Korean government to discuss global economic and financial issues. "The United States and China are waging a currency war. The United States because it wants to fix its fiscal deficit problem and China because it knows it can't continue undervaluing its money like it is," Lula said.

But still so what. We also had a minor tariff conflict with the European Union during the Bush Presidency. And no one can claim that we're in a Cold War with the EU. But the consequences of the US-China spat, due to a history of weaker ties, could be much more dire

U.S. China Currency War Drifting toward armed conflict: Neither the Obama administration nor the Fed want a full-blown trade war with China. They'd rather see China “assume its position in the global system”. (as US diplomats aver) But that means that China will have to compromise on, what it considers to be, a matter of national sovereignty. And, there's the rub. China is a proud nation and doesn't want to be told what to do. But that's not how the system works. Behind the facade of free markets and international institutions, lies an imperial system ruled from Washington. That leaves Beijing with two options; they can either bow to US pressure and fall in line or shrug off Washington's demands and continue on the same path. If they choose to resist, relations with the US will grow more acrimonious and the probability of conflict will rise.

Also, the US-China example differs is the increasing number of proxy-conflicts of influence being waged. Take an easy one for example, China seeking to increase its ties with Iran around the same time that the US ramps up its hostility. And don't forget the problems of North Korea, Taiwan, Japan....Or take an almost unspoken-about example, emerging Indonesia...

Indonesia has become a battleground in an economic cold war raging between China and the United States. As the two superpowers compete, Indonesia is reaping benefits.

Economic cold-war eh? Why stop at economic?

The signed Sino-Indonesian agreement sought to expand cultural, political, and the military- security aspects of their bilateral relationship….On the other hand, Indonesia also improved its military ties with the US; in June 2010, Indonesia and the US signed a wide ranging agreement - the Framework Arrangement on Cooperative Activities in the Filed of Defence, intending to integrate existing collaboration between the two….As the US strengthens its military to military ties in Southeast Asia, the risk increases that the soft power competitive dynamic for regional influence with China may return to the ‘hard power’ confrontation of the Cold War…..While establishing military ties with both China and US may prove to be beneficial to Indonesia, an increase in the security concerns and mutual suspicions of both the US and China may not be beneficial to the maintenance of stability and security.

And finally don't forget that Cold Wars are often ideological. Some of the most conspicuous Chinese "UFO Sightings" (ie, see: Missile Tests) happened just days before Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo received the Nobel Peace Prize against China's threats and wishes. Coincidentally enough our mysterious missile launch happens just one month before the actual ceremony that China is asking its neighbors, like Japan, not to attend. And it happened during Obama's trip to Asia.

We can't forget when we read about Liu Xiabo we read:

...A human rights activist who is little-known inside China. His writing is considered subversive by the Communist Party, and his name is censored.[14] He has called for democratic elections, advocated values of freedom, supported separation of powers and urged the governments to be accountable for its wrongdoings.

When the Chinese authority thinks of Liu Xiabo they see a subversive and dangerous person who is under almost constant monitoring by the government when he is not in jail. And about President Obama's Asian trip; Obama made the call that India deserves a seat on the UN permanent Security Counsel.....

The UN Security Counsel Offer is Obama’s Veiled Message to China. There are two ways of looking at president Barack Obama’s three-day visit to India: its impact on India-US relations and what it means for the broader picture…… The Obama visit seals the fact that we are living in a changed geopolitical world, with China asserting its economic and military muscle and the world’s sole surviving superpower as well as China’s neighbours framing their response…. India and a number of other neighbours of China have come to the conclusion that they must make a concerted attempt to stand up to Chinese bullying to retain their autonomy of action.

For more on India, see this peace of Indian news from late 2009, early 2010:

The Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet the challenges of a possible `two-front war' with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, enhance strategic reach and joint operations with IAF and Navy. Work on the new war doctrine -- to reflect the reconfiguration of threat perceptions and security challenges -- is already underway Read more: Army reworks war doctrine for Pakistan, China - The Times of India timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

And don't forget Africa...

As everyone knows, having been served with daily reminders for many months now, China too is on a diplomatic offensive across Africa. A crucial component of that diplomacy has to do with military cooperation....How will Beijing react to the United States’ sudden enthusiasm in expanding its military presence in Africa? Will Chinese rulers take the word of America’s pro-administration theorists for it, that this has nothing to do with China per se but is entirely the result of growing US reliance on West Africa’s cleaner (both chemically and politically) petroleum and its security concerns in the Horn of Africa?

Conclusion:

What do we see when we look at a snap-shot of US-Chinese relations? An economic struggle that goes way beyond chickens and tires and, if anything, is only now beginning to ramp up. World-Stage ideological and political tom-foolery and snubbing. And even military contests in the sense of who we seek influence over and how those under our spheres of influence view the other.

All three of these things tie together. We are in a Cold War with China and I think its time to admit it, at least to ourselves. It looks like this recession is no where near from over and many say its going to get still worse before it gets better. The recent decision by the Fed to flood 600 some billion dollars may temporarily help our economy but its not going to help the China situation and in the end those bonds that China holds are more important to our stability then any magical money we have the power to create.

What does the world look like today?






The number of other topics I could have covered in this post are many. Most notably the new space-race. But the important point is that something beyond normal dispute is happening between the US and China. Long-term downturns, like the one we're in now, have a way of producing armed conflict. The stage is set.

The reason I post this as a wake-up call is because we need to be aware of the extent of conflict between our two countries, and call it what it basically is. If we can't be honest about a problem then we're not going to be able to rationally try to solve it. Education and honesty are essential to being a rational voter, etc. Far too often these days we like to stick our heads in the sand until a problem explodes and then we explode with solutions that are not well thought-out and usually result in either greater catastrophes or just really, really bad policy.

So, pay attention and lets hope things stay chilly for the time being.

EDIT: I forgot to include this, which also happened today, as one of the day's events.

China owns us financially, what kind of war can you fight where you have to borrow money from your enemy to fight him.

to paraphrase Clausewitz: "War is just an extension of politics by other means."

And to take it further, politics is just an extension of buisness by other means.

I understand that there is a lot of war talk about China lately.
I like the OP a lot because it shows details of huge forces
at work, but falls short of screaming blood and showing
pictures of tanks. Truth be told excessive fear-
mongering, which this thread is not, is bad.



Here's the MSM's impersonation of China...
"Warships are circling an island north of Japan omg omg, chicken little, chicken little"


Here's my impersonation of China...
"You owe two trillion dollar. You pay now. Ok?"


If there is to be a cold war it seems far more likely, to me,
that it's actually two factions within the corporate PTB arguing over the future.
Aren't almost all the major corporations inside both countries now?


David Grouchy

What does this all have to do with the supposed missile launch?

Originally posted by Socratic Method
China owns us financially, what kind of war can you fight where you have to borrow money from your enemy to fight him.

Money goes out the window when your firing nukes out the ying yang...
This is a give and take situation...arm their enemies and make them stronger...While we sit back and relax.
Same thing happened with Russia. The Chinese dare not test the USA military. They may be rising but I leave you with the fact that today they are the world's number two economy, and in the year 1900 they were the world's number two economy. Yes OP, great thread...we are in a Cold War with China and it is finally showing.

You surely thought this through! Glad to see someone seeing how powerful China is becoming these days. One thing that stands out is that the People's Republic of China is a fragile superpower. Which I mean is that even though most of our jobs, items are made there and what not. We can pull out and most of their economy would crumble. I ask you to read books on the People's Republic of China.
Ebook
The ebook has many pages. :/
Shorter read

Originally posted by InvisibleAlbatross
What does this all have to do with the supposed missile launch?

Means look China, we can fire missiles around the earth and towards the moon and make them disappear, can you? lol..

The best thing I think China can do woild be to enhance military ties with Iran.

My understanding is China gets a lot of oil from Iran,
and they would not want the US(after continual prodding by Israel) to attack Iran and jepardize their oil contracts.

It would seem obvious that if US did move on Iran, they would be wanting to take over oil contracts/resources.

Perhaps it is time for China to supply a S-300 missle defence shield substitute to Iran for their defence,
and that would slow down and stimey Israel/US desires for Iran.

It may even be of benefit to the ME, as an Iran/China defense against Israelli threats would slow things down.

reply to post by snusfanatic


You should also mention the recent slow down/ceasation of rare-earth minerals out of China to the west.

I've notice the same lately:
space race, Chinese exporters raging about the Fed, Obama's visit and deals with India, China's deals with Iran.

reply to post by Socratic Method


China owns a lot of our debt but that doesn't mean they have control over us. Never underestimate the power of stupidity. The Fed/Gov are going to keep printing money no matter what, even if it means running this country into the ground.

Also, I doubt this happening today:
Chinese Rating Industry Downgrades US

is a coincidence either.

Very good thread and very thought provoking, I also want to thank the OP for not fear mongering. You really should add the link about China and the rare earth minerals. Really adds to the tensions some.

There is no denying that US relations are strained. Especially with the way we continue to print money out of thin air and devaluing our own currency. Relations can not continue to strain with no breaking point. Eventually there will have to be one.

I really do not have much more to add. I think I will read the OP again and give this some more thought.

Also posted this in another thread on the same topic, but I like this one a lot more and didn't see a need to change the text as the information contained is just as relevant here so for folks who didn't see it in the other thread...

The phenomenon in question www.bbc.co.uk... was most likely a JL-1 (CSS-N-3) Type Cruise missile (en.wikipedia.org...) fired by a Jin Class SSBN (en.wikipedia.org... & maps.google.com...,120.995318&spn=0.0005,0.0005&t=h&q=40.715331,120.995318). The vapor trail indicates that it was a water-based launch due to the fact that water absorbs much of the thrust plume and land based launches create a considerable blowback plume.

The angle of the launch itself looks more like something that would be launched from an Alfa Class sub (en.wikipedia.org...) firing an SS-N-15/RPK-2 Viyuga (en.wikipedia.org...), but they were all supposedly scrapped in the 90's. But honestly, an Alfa would be the most likely to penetrate US coastal undersea detection nets due to it's size, speed, hull composition and visible weapons flight characteristics (what the plume looks like when fired over land and sea). It has been rumoured for years that North Korea got ahold of one through China.

However, the Jin Class saw 5 new launches this year. Previously, there were only two. The Jin is the other most likely candidate, also due to it's size, speed, hull composition and weapons complement with similar visible flight characteristics.

The fact that these are Chinese Naval Weapons Platforms does not necessarily indicate that it was a Chinese launch. The North Koreans have been expanding their naval fleet and are expected to "graduate from the green-water fleet" soon. This could be the first step. This would also gel with the current situation in North Korean leadership. Kim Jong-il is dying, and has chosen his 27 year old son Kim Jong-un to be his successor. Jong-un was recently promoted to Four Star General, and is being advised by Vice Regent Cheng Sung-taek until he has gained more experience in running national affairs. It would not be outside of North Korea's established patterns of sabre rattling during times of internal political unsettlement and international acts in south Korea percieved as a "slight" to the North such as the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, which Kim Il-sung continuously attempted to disrupt throughout the event.

Logically, the North Koreans would be more likely to initiate an act of hostility with us such as a "shot off the bow" as the Chinese are well aware that they can much more easily wage economic warfare against us igniting another cold war and would most likely rather not irradiate one of their most profitable ports. This however would not preclude the Chinese from selling the sub to NK, and the Chinese would likely turn a blind eye to NK aggression as they are already displeased with our monetary policies. (Note to add: see OP of this thread for good explanation on this displeasure and how it is unfolding...we are indeed in another cold war. Perhaps the Kholstomer Plot wasn't fiction after all...)

reply to post by Control


Very interesting! I kind of assumed it was our own because no one seemed to be that freaked out about it, which you'd think they would be since whatever this was was big and close to la. I'm going to have to read up on this theory. As well as some of the other stuff the members here have mentioned. I might have to turn this thread into a running dialogue on china-us news.

Did you look at the sources I posted yesterday?
They are really great in understanding China today.

reply to post by Romantic_Rebel


yes sir! just checkin' em out this morning. i'm pretty excited to read the ebook. i also want to put together some of the sources on the minerals. thanks so much for contributing! its exactly the kind of stuff i like to read

reply to post by snusfanatic


I already have numerous books discussing the People's Republic of China. Capitalist, Socialist, Environmental, Military and so forth.

Originally posted by Socratic Method
China owns us financially, what kind of war can you fight where you have to borrow money from your enemy to fight him.

In the early 1900s, experts thought that a new European war was impossible because countries were too linked economically, needed each other too much, owed too much money to each other....

Remember the book : The Guns Of August about WW1.

From the book why WW1 was impossible.

# Economic miscalculation. In Tuchman's view, both European intellectuals and leaders overestimated the power of free trade. These individuals believed that the interconnection of European nations due to this trade would stop a continent-wide war from breaking out, as the economic consequences would be too great. However, this assumption was incorrect. For example, Tuchman noted that Moltke, when warned of such consequences, refused to even consider them in his plans, arguing he was a "soldier," not an "economist."

What people think now? Exactly that. Globalism means the end of war, China can't afford to fight a war, the US owes too much money to China...ect...

# Unfounded belief in quick warfare. Except for a very few politicians (who were at the time ridiculed and excluded because of their views), all the leaders of the major combatants believed the war would be concluded in a matter of weeks, and by the end of 1914 at the absolute latest. Tuchman recounted the story of a British statesman who, after he warned others that the war might last two or three years, was branded a "pessimist." This false assumption had disastrous effects, especially on logistics (see below).

Same thing today. Air power will reign, once we control the skies, whoever we oppose will fail... that's the belief of the American military machine... which was proven wrong against Hezbollah in 2006.

# Failure to consider political backlash. Many war planners did not take into consideration the political and treaty-based consequences of their offensive actions. As Tuchman argues, the German leaders in particular refused to consider the consequences of moving their armies into Belgium, despite that country's neutrality. Despite Moltke's concerns, German generals insisted on moving through Belgium because they needed to maneuver. They failed (or refused) to realize that by invading Belgium, they effectively forced Britain to declare war because of existing treaties and national honor.

The elite right now think they can do whatever and the sheeple will follow/believe them.

War is definitely possible.

In the Eastern philosophy of "war," coming from Sun-Tzu, there is no real difference between the contest between nation states that are fighting and killing each other, or merely competing in other ways. Both are just parts of the same endless conflict. Clausewitz understood that with the quote someone posted above (Clausewitz is the Western equivalent to Sun-Tzu, pretty much).

But, Sun-Tzu also said:

For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

And this is key to understanding how the Chinese are operating. There is no need to get involved in an armed conflict so such a thing between the US and China is no where near on the horizon. Up until Bush 43, I actually think the U.S. has been masterful in just this sort of strategy of pushing its influence and power in the world. All of the economic means of control we've set up since World War II, the cultural dominance of the U.S. throughout the world, all of it, has been a most ingenious use of influence instead of actual war fighting energy to further its goals in the world. Under Bush, I think the U.S. lost its way in how it uses power, preferring hot wars when not necessary, when much less expensive means should have been possible.

We will only see a hot war between the U.S. and China if/when resources start to really dwindle or there is some sort of major crisis that provokes it, but it's unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, if ever, IMO. Oil or food or water could eventually be the spark for such a war, but with any luck we'll figure out ways to deal with those problems going forward (get off the oil teet, deal with overpopulation by reducing birthrates, or something...).

I think what Obama did with India was a very forceful move in this long, subtle conflict between the U.S. and China and a very smart one. India is a natural ally for the U.S. Both are former British colonies who threw off the yolk of our former masters and are now ideologically very compatible as major democracies. The cultural exchange between the two countries is also very important, and Indians who have come to America have generally been very successful and been a great boon, here. If India is granted permanent membership to the U.N. Security Council, they will generally be in accordance with U.S. interests, because the interests of both countries align very closely. Quite frankly, also, India deserves a place on the Council, IMO. They are now just THAT important, and they are only getting more so in world affairs.

Originally posted by Socratic Method
China owns us financially, what kind of war can you fight where you have to borrow money from your enemy to fight him.

Do you fight wars by throwing wads of cash at the enemy?

America, like other countries, ran out of money during WWII, but that didn't stop the production of war goods.