1,000,000 Post??

EDIT UPDATE:

devil9t9uk: Sept 14
cmdrkeenkid: Sept 15
muppet: Sept 23
intrepid: Oct 7
muckminer: Oct 12
Spittin Cobra: Oct 23
MacKiller: Oct 23
ThatsJustWeird: Nov 1
cyberdude78: Nov 3
Brittany: Nov 7
Bangin: Nov 9
phreak_of_nature: Nov 10
Montana: Nov 11
zsandman: Nov 20
Lukefj: Nov 24
Enronoutrunhomerun: Nov 29
Wassabi: Feb 12, 2005
darkspace: June 6, 2006
browha: World will end first


This may be a little premature, but predictions always are. By starting this thread now we will have ample time to discuss when this event will really happen.

Currently, we are at approximately 630,000 posts (both ATS/BTS). The boards average approximately 2500 posts a day. If my calculations aer correct that places us at about November 24, 2004 for our 1 millionth post! What an accomplishment this will be. I'm sure SO will have a special scotch prepared for that one!

Anyway, now that I have posted the mathematically extrapolated prediction I will post my own prediction as there are other things that will come into play such as the US election, which will undoubtedly increase posts as any controversial topic does. There may also be several other interesting developments worldwide int he meantime, so I will place my prediction for the 1 millionth post at November 15th, 2004.

Let the guesses..oops predictions begin!

Cheers,
Lukefj

EDIT: PS. Once you have made your prediction, try to be honest and not go back and change it as the time approaches.

[edit on 29-6-2004 by Lukefj]

[edit on 20-7-2004 by Lukefj]

Also take into account continued growth, I'll take Oct 7. If it's me, I like Glenfiddich.

Growth + Elections + New Hoax + Osama being killed =


1,000,000 on November 1st!

i'm going with september 15th. why then? beacuse that;s my birthday and when i decided the 1,000,000th post will be.

so, uh, if anyone actually gets the prediction correct do they win a prize?

Not unless Simon/SO decide to do something more formal. This is for pride baby!

It doesn't matter anyway as november 15, 2004 is confirmed as the date it will happen. Sorry all.

Lukefj

I say October 12...why? Because I have a magic 8-Ball, and I am not afraid to use it.

Well I would like to say Nov. 30th since that is my birthday, but I think that is a little far off, so I will pin it at Nov. 20th, my wifes birthday.

I proclaim it to be November 20th, 2004.

If you edit your post do you forfeit your prediction? I say yes.

I'm going to take a risk and say September 23rd

I also predict at least three posts either side of the millionth post will say " I made the millionth post!!", followed by posts of disappointment that they didn't


[edit on 29-6-2004 by muppet]

A simple linear regression using average posts per day, number of members, new members that day, posts per existing member and posts per new member on their first day should do nicely. It's been awhile since I've done one but I think those are the four variables we'd need.


But, in the absence of historical data available to us, I'd take the most recent week's posts and divide by 7 as that's a little cleaner than one day only. Doing so yields that it will take another 157.31 days to accomplish this (assuming that there were 629,660 posts as of yesterday).

That's hardly scientific though and I'd prefer the historical data for any kind of estimate. It also fails to account for anomalies such as the beheading video or end of the world threads that spurn high level of posts in rapid succession. A three month daily set of statistics could be used to determine this however and account for such anomalies. Six months even better.

Perhaps this could become a game and SO could publish some historical numbers in a spreadsheet that we could analyze.

Easy titian, don't hurt yourself...LOL.

If you have the time and patience to go through the linear regression adn collect historical data go for it! I think there may be some historical data on BigBoards for ATS.

Let us kow the results of your analysis!

Lukefj

so titian, figure anything out yet? or are you just keeping the results to yourself?

I say we never make it! The world will end before we hit 1,000,000.... or the board will crash or something lol

Hmm... there's a thought eh? Maybe I'll come up with something for the winner.

m...

November 9th, 2004

I will return to this thread!

I predict February 12th 2005 will host the 1000000 message.

- Was

Originally posted by ThatsJustWeird
Growth + Elections + New Hoax + Osama being killed =


1,000,000 on November 1st!

+end of the world threads

nah, probably on 06/06/06 posted at 6:33am... just a wild guess on my account

Originally posted by darkspace
nah, probably on 06/06/06 posted at 6:33am... just a wild guess on my account

I'm loosing it... i was gonna say put 6:66am for a moment, someone please kill me!

I'll take november 10. After the big nuke attack from the suitcase nukes on nov 2. The internet will be down for the rest of that week. So by the time it comes back up there will be such a flurry of post, that it will easily make it on the 10th.

Hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not I'll take the bottle, or any 2 wheeled gift springer has in mind.

well 6 hours and 66 minutes is possible just not in that position.