Originally posted by RizeorDie
1. Israel attacks Iran.
2. Iran blocks oil from the straight of hormuz = economic collapse
or
2. Iran/syria/lebanon declare war on Israel
3. False flag on USA soil blamed on Iran
4. War with Iran
If Israel is to attack Iran then it must happen within the next few days.
#1 - Possible, perhaps even likely, but this attack would be a tactical strike, not an invasion (there being a few countries in the way)
#2 - I do not believe that Iran has the military capability to do this long enough to matter
#3 - Syria and Lebanon are unlikely to join in a war against Israel, as they would bear the brunt of any land attack and lack the military power to capture and hold much of anything
#4 - Probably not necessary and would not be effective -- Iraq, and the Bush administration's false claims about it, have jaded the country to those sorts of thing
#5 - Meh
As a nuclear power, Israel holds the winning hand in an all out war with this neighbours. If Iran demonstrates nuclear capability, all that does is changes it to a Pakistan/India face off, peace through mutually assured destruction, but I would be incredibly surprised if Iran ever gets to that point. Israel likely knows more about the state of Iran's nuclear research than most of the leaders in that country.
Radicals aside, politicians like "uneasy peace" with an enemy that they can use to manipulate the populace with. Both Israel and its neighbours have this now. The nut running Iran is a wild card, of course, but his options are limited, and if there's any sanity left in him at all, it should be obvious that attacking Israel is a losing proposition. If he wants to boost his standing in his country and in the Middle East, as he seems to want to, he'll run off at the mouth and rattle his sabre, and little more, as it's tough, and a bit pointless, to boost your standing when you're dead.
