Iran - A coup in progress?

With all the comments about the U.N., the U.S. and Iran I thought I would put together a picture of what is transpiring in Iran. Since President Ahmadinejad took office in the disputed election, he has gone out of his way to bypass the Ayatollah in an effort to solidify the Office of the President, attempting to place it at the same level of the Ayatollah.
He has taken many steps in reorganizing parts of the Government to give him more control. It was only a matter of time for these changes he made to come to a head within the Government. A quick paced transition from theocracy to an authoritarian government appears to be taking shape. The expansion of the Revolutionary Guard's influence and power in key areas outside of their established role is yet more confirmation that there are changes taking place within Iran that could change the region.

I laid out the articles below to show the transition that is occurring in Iran today (2010), and how the 1979 revolution has been pushed to the side.

Elite Revolutionary Guard's expanding role in Iran may limit U.S. options - January 2010

TEHRAN -- A major expansion in the role played by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is giving the elite force new economic and political clout, but it could also complicate efforts by the United States and its allies to put pressure on the Iranian regime, according to U.S. officials and outside analysts.

Clinton: Iran Is Becoming a Military Dictatorship - February 2010

The Revolutionary Guard has long been a pillar of Iran's regime as a force separate from the ordinary armed forces. The Guard now has a hand in every critical area, including missile development, oil resources, dam building, road construction, telecommunications and nuclear technology.

It also has absorbed the paramilitary Basij as a full-fledged part of its command structure -- giving the militia greater funding and a stronger presence in Iran's internal politics.

Asked if the U.S. is planning a military attack on Iran, Clinton said "no."

The Mid East Memo - ABC News - August 2010

Ahmadinejad’s overreaching has sparked the ire of hard-line conservatives behind Khamenei, say analysts, who see Ahmadinejad challenging the Supreme Leader on policy. The first major disagreement came in the form of Ahmadinejad’s right hand man and relative through marriage, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. Khamenei called for his dismissal as Vice President last year; Ahmadinejad removed him as VP, but compensated by giving him more than a dozen positions in government. Analyst Meir Javedanfar sees Ahmadinejad grooming Mashaei as his successor, as a way to maintain influence when his term ends in 2013.

Another point of contention is Ahmadinejad’s active foreign policy – encroaching on the reserved domain of the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad appointed special envoys to the Middle East and other key regions, a move considered out-of-bounds and offensive by the Khamenei camp, and the two camps have differed on the hottest issue of all: whether and how to engage America. The friction in the Government appears to be getting worse. So bad in fact that Members of the Judiciary out right challenged Ahmadinejad by asking the courts to force the issue with charging her, or to release her.


How to Alienate Your Allies In Iran - September 2010

Attacks on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are coming from unexpected corners. As he arrives in New York to attend the United Nations’ General Assembly opening this week, hardliners back home—including some who were once his close allies—are undercutting their former standard-bearer every chance they get.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has angered the Judicial with regards to the American Hostages by refusing to allow the Judiciary to control the case. Instead Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used the Revolutionary Guard units to deal with the situation, which in turn promoted a turf battle.

In addition to an angry Ayatollah he has also made enemies within the Parliament.

The hostility became impossible to ignore last month when Iran’s Parliament demanded a review of Ahmadinejad’s five-year economic plan and the president balked. Weeks of bitter rhetoric ensued, with legislators denouncing him as “dictatorial” and “authoritarian.” Amid the uproar, he tried to appoint five officials to act as his personal emissaries around the world, earning not only another parliamentary smackdown but a direct rebuke from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ahmadinejad Was Freed Hiker’s Captor, Not Saviour - September 2010

Three weeks ago, Shafie met the deputy prosecutor for Tehran city and reminded him that Shourd’s situation needed to be addressed urgently. He told me later that the official response he received indicated that the judiciary was frustrated with the intelligence ministry’s handling of the spy case.

Shafie wrote to Tehran’s chief prosecutor reminding him he was responsible for Shourd’s well being. The lawyer continues the story, “On receipt of my letter, the head of Branch Three of the Security Court, who is in charge of this case, told his superiors that if there was no action on the case, he would resign. He told them that 'if something happened, you would make me the scapegoat and nothing would happen to my superiors'.

He said that either a ruling must be made in the case, or it should be withdrawn so that the prisoners can be released.”

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Iran - October 2010

CHANGE OF POWER CHARTER?
The Revolutionary Guards' political and economic influence appears to have grown since Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005, and they helped to quell last year's huge opposition protests. Some senior clerics accuse Ahmadinejad of shifting power from the clergy to the Guards, undermining the historical role of the clerics, who played a key role in mobilising the masses that led to the 1979 Islamic revolution.

"The institution of the ... Guards has gradually eclipsed the institution of the clergy, in terms of their economic, political, and foreign policy influence," said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. "Iran is (now) more a military autocracy."

Trouble in Paradise? Potentially biting the hand that feeds you?

In Unusual Move, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Slam Ahmadinejad Over Comments - Radio Free Europe - November 2010

In an unprecedented move, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has directly blasted President Mahmud Ahmadinejad over controversial comments he made recently, including saying that parliament is not on top of the country's affairs. Ahmadinejad was also criticized for promoting an "Iranian school of thought" instead of an Islamic one.

It goes on to point out:

The unusual attack by the IRGC, coming in one of its main publications, is seen by analysts as a warning issued to Ahmadinejad from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the intention of trying to tame the Iranian president.

It appears Iranian President Ahmadinejad, not only defiant on the international stage, but apparently at home as well as he has now angered the Ayatollah, the Judiciary as well as Parliament.. He is not popular among the citizens of Iran due to his fixation with engaging the West over Iran's nuclear program, instead of keeping his campaign promises of fixing the economy.

President Ahmadinejad is a ticking time bomb and its only a matter of time before he is removed as President., provided he does not use the Revolutionary Guard as his personal army to seize control of Iran and remove the Ayatollah.

Anyone else observing / noticing this trend coming from Iran? Thoughts? Predictions?

Iran has always been a dictatorial regime of sorts... The head of power has always been the head of the snake! It's what lies below it that you should worry about! Figureheads like Obama/ the Shah/Ayatollah/Bush/Regan etc, have never really wielded any real power from a personal perspective.... They have always succumbed to the elitist will of those who really govern their respective countries! You can have an election tomorrow and it will only have an infinite impact on society as a whole! That's why you have the emergence of hybrids like the T party... It's sad to say, but they're' the real revolutionaries of today... because they're all encompassing, and non threatening to those in the know!

I thought that the Supreme Leader commands the Revolutionary Guard.

If the President is upsurped by the guard, the Ayatollah will appoint another President.

reply to post by CitizenNum287119327


Yes, but what happens when a president manages to convince the youth in the army, and rev guard that he and the more western liberal lifestyle is more appealing than a life of impoverished religious dedication.
yes, he is anti west and isnt a western person, but he is far more 'western' than the ayatollah's idea of a lifestyle

The coup happened last year. IRG in control of pretty much everything, including the Ayatoilet.

second

reply to post by wcitizen


It does make one wonder who is actually running the show over there though. The President's actions appear more and more out of line with the Ayatollah. There was a recent speech the Ayatollah gave at one of Iran's Universities. During this speech people were allowed questions. Several students asked questions about the Presidents actions, both domestic and International, and criticized the President in the process.

The Ayatollah allowed the questions and gave answers. Many people found this unusual saying it was a very clear signal of the growing problems between the Religious leaders and the President. These portions were left in the video that state run media played later, which again, was highly unusual, and indicating the Ayatollah had approved it.

With all the reports I have seen, I think its only a matter of time before he is removed from office by the Ayatollah, or he seizes control of the government and ends the theocracy.

There is a thread on these forums that talks about an Iranian woman who described to Iran State Media her arrest and jail time here (linked to smuggling operation of prohibited tech). stating she was placed in jail to serve her husbands sentence. She stated her husband was tried in abstention (which we cant do here in the states).

This in turn drummed up support for the locals about the Great Satan, diverting the peoples attention away from the internal problems (fuel costs, scarcity of items). Some time goes by, and another incident arises, this one is the anniversary of the Iranian takeover of the US Embassy in '79.

Its almost like clockwork... Some time will go by, and Iran will do something that causes their population to focus on a foreign entity. It dies down, slowly returns to normal until the people start going back to domestic problems at home, and boom, another incident in the international realm to divert attention.

I don't know why it has to be viewed in such a light.

If not for the propagandist rhetoric and spin in these articles. If one was to try and view the situation impartially it could signal a move closer to democracy. If the power of the Ayatollah is becoming diminished in favour of the President, who is at least somewhat elected, than that could also be seen as possibly being a good thing.

Perhaps after the current Ayatollah has died there might be moves toward a more moderate government to appease internal citizens and outsiders alike.

Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by wcitizen

 

It does make one wonder who is actually running the show over there though. The President's actions appear more and more out of line with the Ayatollah. There was a recent speech the Ayatollah gave at one of Iran's Universities. During this speech people were allowed questions. Several students asked questions about the Presidents actions, both domestic and International, and criticized the President in the process.

The Ayatollah allowed the questions and gave answers. Many people found this unusual saying it was a very clear signal of the growing problems between the Religious leaders and the President. These portions were left in the video that state run media played later, which again, was highly unusual, and indicating the Ayatollah had approved it.

With all the reports I have seen, I think its only a matter of time before he is removed from office by the Ayatollah, or he seizes control of the government and ends the theocracy.

There is a thread on these forums that talks about an Iranian woman who described to Iran State Media her arrest and jail time here (linked to smuggling operation of prohibited tech). stating she was placed in jail to serve her husbands sentence. She stated her husband was tried in abstention (which we cant do here in the states).

This in turn drummed up support for the locals about the Great Satan, diverting the peoples attention away from the internal problems (fuel costs, scarcity of items). Some time goes by, and another incident arises, this one is the anniversary of the Iranian takeover of the US Embassy in '79.

Its almost like clockwork... Some time will go by, and Iran will do something that causes their population to focus on a foreign entity. It dies down, slowly returns to normal until the people start going back to domestic problems at home, and boom, another incident in the international realm to divert attention.

Yes, I have no doubt there is some infighting within the vipers nest, but I think they also create a lot of false dichotomies to keep people confused, and divert attention from the fact that the IRG control most of the Corporations and Banks these days - and we know what that means.

From what I have read the Ayatollah is afraid to go against the IRG, but just as in US, they also present a more 'reasonable' face to the 'sheeple' frequently enough to hide the truth, and also use hegelian dialectic - and they use it big time - and often simply blatant lies, yes, and all sorts of diversion tactics against foreign 'threats' to keep the focus off the internal situation - which is dire. They don't need to worry too much because the state has control of the media, so nothing much will be said.