One Year Until Meteor Outburst (up to 750 an Hour)"NASA also worried"

Every year around Oct. 8th, Earth passes through a minefield of dusty debris from Comet Giacobini-Zinner, source of the annual Draconid meteor shower. This year, forecasters expect Earth to narrowly miss several of the debris streams, resulting in no appreciable display for 2010. Next year, however, could be different. On Oct. 8, 2011, Earth will have a near head-on collision with a tendril of dust, setting off a strong outburst of as many as 750 meteors per hour. People in Europe, Africa and the Middle East will have a front-row seat for what could be the strongest shower since the Leonid storms a decade ago. Mark your calendar and, meanwhile, follow these links for more information

Source
Wow I don't think I have ever seen anything like this in my life! After some research I found out that this type of outburst has happened in the past. Here is a link that explains most of it and a good introduction to the Draconid
meteor shower...2011 Draconids Storm? Or just an Outburst
I wonder with a so called outburst like this, If somehow that increases our chances of being hit by a Rock larger than just the normal dust that burns up?

Draconid meteor shower: NASA prepares for potentially damaging 2011 meteor shower

NASA is assessing the risk to spacecraft posed by the upcoming 2011 Draconid meteor shower, a seven-hour storm of tiny space rocks that has the potential to ding major Earth-orbiting spacecraft like the crewed International Space Station and Hubble Space Telescope.

Source

reply to post by paradiselost333


Here come the Draconids again, and they want everything yo got left bro.

reply to post by Wildmanimal


yea I Hear ya..
just hope they are not flesh eating!!!

wanted to add this screen shot from space weather because they do not leave there stories up very long and its the source of original story[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a135b5d7b962.jpg[/atsimg]

I thought I would dig this little gem back up since
I just saw an article on it.
Wonder if there is any relation to comet Elenin.

Crap, so this won't be visible for NA, or just not as good a show?

reply to post by TKDRL


TKDRL, I dont think you are reading the post correctly, look at the "screen shot" paradiselost333 posted and note the date, This was last year, thus, this year is the year we might encounter a strong outburst of meteors.




I don't think it is going to be spectacular, because the Draconidsis meteors is not as bright as some other meteor showers, but definitely something to make a note off.

October 7 and 8, 2011 Draconids The radiant point for the Draconid meteor shower almost coincides with the head of the constellation Draco the Dragon in the northern sky. That’s why the Draconids are best viewed from the northern hemisphere. However, the big and brilliant waxing gibbous moon makes 2011 an unfavorable year for watching this shower. The Draconid shower is a real oddity, in that the radiant point stands highest in the sky as darkness falls. Unlike many meteor showers, the Draconids are more likely to fly in the evening hours than in the morning hours after midnight. This shower is definitely a sleeper, producing only a handful of languid meteors per hour in most years. But watch out if the Dragon awakes! On occasion, fiery Draco has been known to spew forth hundreds – if not thousands – of meteors in a single hour. Even if an outburst comes in 2011, the shower must complete with the light of the waxing gibbous moon. The glare of moonlight is sure to obscure the 2011 Draconid shower, but you can try viewing it on the peak evenings of October 7 and 8

This is quoted from earthsky.org. An interesting website i came across doing some research on the meteor shower and found this guide that could come in handy : EarthSky’s meteor shower guide for 2011

paradiselost333,good find and thanks for sharing.

Keep watching the skies!!!

Thanks for answering, I only asked because I am in canada, the article says africa middle east and eurpoe will have a front row view, so I was wondering if it would be visible here is all. I love meteor showers, lay on the beach for hours listening to the soothing waves is the best

Bookmarked earthsky, thanks for that link! Looks like the moon is being a real party pooper this year lol.

Originally posted by kdog1982
Wonder if there is any relation to comet Elenin.

Wonder no more.

It's not!

Originally posted by pazcat

Originally posted by kdog1982
Wonder if there is any relation to comet Elenin.

Wonder no more.

It's not!

I know,gosh darn it,I was just kidding,jeez!
Thought I would freak out those elenin coming to destroy us all believers.

Well, looks like I have to get a plane ticket, thanks a lot space! You have once again made me spend money! Shakes fist most fiercely.

someone need to do a COMET WATCH thread ...

we are going to be very busy this year

Originally posted by heineken
someone need to do a COMET WATCH thread ...

we are going to be very busy this year

i would,but I'm just to lazy.

reply to post by kdog1982


This is not related to the comet elenin, it is the debris from a past comet. But the time frame is very close to the time when elenin is close and visible and we are do to go through its debris field also , so to say the least we should have great show!!

Actually, I think that just about anywhere on the planet is going to be good for seeing meteors and fireballs over the next year.

We seem to be running into a more thickly populated patch of space, as I've been tracking in this thread:

Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Today's average is 4.35 fireballs per day, up from 1.28. I think that the extreme weather we've been having is in part attributable to the increased fireball rate. The added energy simply has to effect the atmosphere, along with the current solar activity.

Btw, we've had 8, yes, EIGHT, M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the biggest M 3.7, plus seven C-class.

Originally posted by apacheman
Actually, I think that just about anywhere on the planet is going to be good for seeing meteors and fireballs over the next year.

We seem to be running into a more thickly populated patch of space, as I've been tracking in this thread:

Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Today's average is 4.35 fireballs per day, up from 1.28. I think that the extreme weather we've been having is in part attributable to the increased fireball rate. The added energy simply has to effect the atmosphere, along with the current solar activity.

Btw, we've had 8, yes, EIGHT, M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the biggest M 3.7, plus seven C-class.

It does seem like things are ramping up abit.Or is it our awareness has been ramped up.Who's to say.

Originally posted by kdog1982
It does seem like things are ramping up abit.Or is it our awareness has been ramped up.Who's to say.

I agree.

People are more aware of things going on in the sky than ever. Sites like ATS feedback into society, and more people watching will translate into more reports. Sure there are "blips" in the rates we see, but there is no evidence to suggest that these have not being going on since pre-history.

If this predicted Draconids outburst suggests anything is abnormal about "this particular patch of space" that we are going through, then why was nothing else reported in the past when we had full blown storms (the Draconids this year is predicted to be a reasonably strong outburst - perhaps up to 750 per hour)? Such as:

In 1966 the Leonids produced a storm of around 40-50 per second .

In 1998, 2000, and 2001 the Leonids produced storms where the rates exceeded or equaled 3000 per hour,2000 per hour, and 3000 per hour respectively.

In 1946 the Draconids produced a storm of more than 10,000 per hour.


We are still here...

Enough with the fear mongering, everybody should go out and watch the sky, as Draconid outbursts this strong are few and far between. This should be a spectacular event (if you are in the favored area), and well worth planning ahead for. Tell your friends and family about it! There has never been a proven link between strong meteor showers and big impacts, so just lie back and enjoy the show!