posted on Nov, 13 2010 @ 10:28 PM
It amuses me, somewhat, that people here seem to think that when they type out global scenarios that read like a dime store suspense novel...that this
is what is really going to happen.
It amuses me less that so many people here seem to salivate at the prospect of the United States not just waning...but suffering some kind of
catastrophic collapse. But we are all entitled to our own opinions, biases and fantasies.
No doubt if the U.S. were to utterly collapse...which it will not...there would be a lot of reshuffling of the power deck. And we could speculate
endlessly about all of that.
However, all of this (in this thread) seems to be predicated on the assumption that America's complete collapse is "imminent." So, let's just
focus on that for a moment. Based on what, exactly?
Because if that assertion is unfounded...or largely flawed...then the rest of the discussion is nothing more than anti-American folks passing the
Personally, I think that the U.S. has plenty of moves left in this chess game. And after the butt-kick that Obama just received in the mid-term
elections, you can count on him getting a whole lot more aggressive on the job creation - and job protection - front.
That means, in my opinion, you are going to see a "bi-partisan" effort to address the currency issues created by China's refusal to let the Yuan
float up, by the U.S. insisting on "Fair Trade" polices (as opposed to Free Trade) wherein countries will be expected to unilaterally level the
international trade playing field in the areas of Wage Rates, Benefits, Workplace Safety, Environmental Controls, Taxation, Currency, Government
Subsidies, Interest Rates etc.
Countries who do not abide by these Fair Trade rules (or cannot for some reason), will be subject to Tariffs on imports in to the USA (and maybe
Canada and some other developed nations) designed to even up these unfair competitive factors.
America has lost a huge percentage of its manufacturing base (as has Canada) to Countries with very low wages, dismal working conditions, no
environmental controls, etc. China, in particular, has run wild during this period...and is now making the mistake of taking the U.S. on directly on
a number of fronts.
1) They are not allowing the Yuan to float, which continues to put U.S. domestic industry at a huge disadvantage against their Imports.
2) They held up Rare Earth mineral shipments to the U.S., as well as Japan, recently...big stick in the eye, and a very big strategic error on
3) The are making it quite clear that they are prepared to the let the rest of the world suffer while they take their time adjusting away from an
export based economy...meaning that the unemployed in America and elsewhere can rest assured that if China has its way, things will only get worse.
4) China's not-so-subtle recent shows of military prowess, are also danger signs the U.S.A. can no longer ignore...as they are funding the growth of
these forces directly through the massive trade imbalances between America and China (running at about $250 Billion per year...that's $1 Trillion
dollars since 2006 folks).
I could go on...but really, the political and economic climate in America is going to force them to put a stop to the unfair trade practices of China
(and a few others) in order to get their own people back to work, and to begin to balance the books (Trade and Deficit).
And, by the way, because the Chinese economy is so heavily geared toward exports...if the U.S. decides to really put up full effect tariffs - it would
be the Chinese economy you would see go into a rapid nosedive. They do not yet have a large enough middle class to take up the production loss
(that's why they are stalling on currency reform).
Don't count out Uncle Sam (or his close buddies) just yet. The American people have had just about enough of Government policies that encourage
their own industries to set up shop everywhere but in America...and they are demanding change.
The newly empowered Republicans will be more than happy to accommodate - and Obama does not want to be a one-term President, so he is going have to do
what needs to be done to get America moving again.
As I say, I do not buy the central premise of this thread...America has lots left. It is just going to stop playing the fool (as it has done with
China and others), on "Free Trade" initiatives whereby it gives free access to its mammoth markets while getting shut out of those of its trading