New paper predicts first Earth-like planet will be discovered by May 2011

New paper predicts first Earth-like planet will be discovered by May 2011

www.geek.com

A new scientific paper by Sam Arbesman and Greg Laughlin says we might not have long to wait: they predict that we will find a potentially habitable and Earth-like planet by early May 2011.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Interesting if it proves to be true. I wonder just how many they will be able to locate in the end ?

And then the ultimate question will be put forth:

''Does the planet in question, harbor life ?''

Even if they do locate a planet with the highest potential to harbor life, above all the others found, will we ever devise a way to get there ?

I hope it will be in my lifetime

www.geek.com (visit the link for the full news article)

That's an interesting find. I thought this part was rather ambitious.

It appears that once the first Earth-like planet is spotted, we can expect to start seeing countless numbers of them, with the habitability of the most habitable planet yet discovered doubling at a rate of every half a month.

For how long do they expect it to double at that rate? I'm all for it but that seems like some crazy talk.

Another prediction,this time by "scientists",Everyones getting in on it.

Originally posted by 12voltz
Another prediction,this time by "scientists",Everyones getting in on it.

I hope they're correct in their assessment.

However, if you read the methodology they used, it's kind of like predicting that it will snow sometime this winter simply because it's getting colder. I was hoping from the thread title they had more to go on than that.

It appears that once the first Earth-like planet is spotted, we can expect to start seeing countless numbers of them, with the habitability of the most habitable planet yet discovered doubling at a rate of every half a month.

Does this seem strange to anybody else? why would we be gradually discovering less hostile planets at an increasing rate? surely when the pool of samples is so large the discovery of such planets would be random?
Granted they are looking for earth like planets but the equipment doesn't change so why would the rate at which they are found?

Originally posted by centurion1211

Originally posted by 12voltz
Another prediction,this time by "scientists",Everyones getting in on it.

I hope they're correct in their assessment.

However, if you read the methodology they used, it's kind of like predicting that it will snow sometime this winter simply because it's getting colder. I was hoping from the thread title they had more to go on than that.

Me too...the article was rather a let down. They sound pretty optimistic though...maybe there's more to it...I hope.

Originally posted by Arkady


Does this seem strange to anybody else? why would we be gradually discovering less hostile planets at an increasing rate? surely when the pool of samples is so large the discovery of such planets would be random?
Granted they are looking for earth like planets but the equipment doesn't change so why would the rate at which they are found?

I agree this does seem strange. However, I do also remember when the first planets were discovered. When the method being used to discover them was reliced dozens more planets were found very quickly using data that had already been gathered.
Not saying the same will be true here, however, I just can not shake the feeling that if this does happen, that it is just not all part of discloser.

reply to post by Arkady


Well the Kepler telescope for example has already found what you could call a "Butt Load" of exoplanets.

I'm sure they are notice an increase in how many exoplanets we are finding and then figuring out the odds.

Here's the LINK to the paper written concerning the "prediction".

The paper reads more like probability than prediction but that doesn't diminish it any for me. It was a good read.

Next question how do we get there...i mean err who gets there? Will earth be the slum and this new planet the new upper class territory?

Sounds like they ment to say it will be "disclosed" by that date. I mean, think about it for a sec. Are they psychics? Or just putting off announcing it until TPTB approve it?