The Future of Energy Consumption. (RICHARD HEINBERG:)

Hi ATS

Just watched a video from R.Heinberg.

He basically says that peak oil will flat line our growth economy, and this will cause almost all industries and production businesses to go haywire.
Nothing new as infinite growth can not be maintained with finite resources. However this man explains it very clearly in 4:31 min.



What I think he says is that peak oil has already passed as oil becomes more expensive then the production costs.

Why do I think so ? I think so because there are probably a bunch of solutions available, and IMO the easiest one for a rich and strong nation,group, region or society is: Secure or consolidate a firm grip on oil production.
Results would be that you can take a bigger slice of the pie and keep oil prices in check for a longer period of time. ( Reason for invading Iraq ?)

However...

This is only a delaying the inevitable.

Other options need to be developed. Especially regarding our economic structures which are all dependent on growth.

Except for alternative energy sources, are there other solutions in development ? If there are, please share your knowledge ? I would greatly appreciate it.
Also...
Please feel free to correct me if I understand this subject totally wrong ?

Kind regards

~ Sinter

Hey Sinter!

Good video.

I think the general consensus amongst the experts is that the current economic downturn was caused by a variety of financial malpractices, and also the first real wave of cheap peak oil.

The rising demand caused an already over stressed economy to reach it's breaking point, and the whole system started to crumble. Well, it was saved from complete collapse, and the result of keeping things going is that we entered a recession (now depression).

This caused demand for fuel to drop, supply to rise, and prices to decline. The economy has ever so slightly improved, and so eventually prices will go up again.

This is the cycle:

Energy Supply-Demand Imbalance
Recession
Energy Supply Demand balance
Recovery

...repeat

It would seem, without any other variables to change the equation, this cycle would repeat as cheap oil becomes increasingly difficult to extract at the unfolding rate of demand. I do think there is at least one serious alternative that will save civilization as we know it.

Algae oil.

The U.S. government has spent millions on grants to research a mass producible biofuel from algaeoil for decades. The research was halted a long time ago, because then current technology couldn't get the rate of efficiency for biofuel extraction from algae to produce a viable alternative for then current crude oil prices. Well, our technology has gotten a lot better, and the price of a barrel for oil has increased significantly.

Anticipating peak oil, the U.S. government and many other organizations/corporations all around the world have started to revamp research and even start up large processing centers. I think that this technology may be capable of being ramped up within just a few years from deciding on the best method of processing. I'm sure further tweaks will be done over the years, but am somewhat confident that before this decade is up, we'll be seeing a good chunk of our energy coming from the green goop.

Remember, it's not that we're running out of oil yet, it's that the rate of extraction doesn't adequately meet the demand, so if we can do some things to offset the imbalance, we can make it through. A simple global car-pooling initiative, say .. a website for each nation, that included every region and general area, where you could find other people traveling to and from your destination, job workplace, etc... simple things could be done to reduce the consumption. Some people ride in a vehicle when it's entirely unnecessary. I ride my bike all the time, and actually haven't even had a car for over a year without any problems.

So, even taking 10-20% of our fuel consumption from gasoline and turning it towards algae oil within the next 7-12 years may go a long way to keeping our global economies from facing constant recession, when considering the other simple plans that could be implemented. I think that if algaeoil biofuel does prove to be as viable as many are hoping for, then it will be our main fuel source by 2030.

Let's not give up on civilization and the ability for humanity to innovate when pressed.

"Necessity, who is the mother of invention" --Plato

brothermartin.wordpress.com...



Great piece discussing Richard Heinberg's breakdown on peak oil (along with peak coal, peak gas, and lessening of uranium extraction [reserves?]). If you watched Collapse then you will be familiar with a lot of the material discussed here. I think people need to really take this seriously.

This thread and this whole peak oil forum needs a lot more attention here on ATS. Peak oil isn't a theory it's a observable phenomena. World oil production peaked in 2005/2006 and it hasn't increased since even as world demand increases. So therefore with oil being a finite resource production will only continue to decline reaping havoc on the world wide economy designed around future growth to pay off present debts (fractional reserve system). The significance of this on everyone's day to day life will be enormous. Oil prices will skyrocket and with them food costs. This will push our already burdened economy over the edge to perhaps a point of mass chaos from which we may never recover.

Instead of trying to keep the party going I think we need to protect ourselves and our families first from starvation. Some great ways to do this would be to start a local garden at your house or in your community or learn how to identify edible species of plants and learn how to hunt wild game and how to efficiently fish. These are great life skills to have anyways and with what is coming down the pipe these skills will be invaluable.

After starvation is dealt with we need to learn how to protect ourselves. Firearms will work for a short period of time but sooner or later after a collapse you will run out of bullets and either have to manufacture your own or switch to another means of protection.

I seriously hope people take this advice seriously as we do not have much time to prepare for this peak oil price spike coming, and with a price spike we could see runs on gasoline and if this happens (and pray it doesn't) we could see supermarkets without any food in as little as 6/7 days, but probably even sooner as people realize what is happening as rush to grab the food before you do. Please create a contingency plan and store 3 months worth of food so that you can be one of the surviving 1-2 billion people.