I was merely commenting on the probabilities of coin tossing.
Originally posted by quantum_flux
I don't believe that nature is deterministic, however it does tend to stay within the lines of conservation and symmetry, but not necessarily deterministically so since nature is intrinsically random (even the best computers can't model sufficiently high n-body collisions, however some people interpret that as the multiverse). The solution to this is what I call [Free Chaos Will, irrationaltheorist.blogspot.com...]
Originally posted by sirnex
reply to post by Maslo
Actually, they do. The randomness evolution depends on is randomness present in mutations, which relies on quantum-mechanical chemical processes - true, quantum randomness, guaranteed to be genuinely random (probabilistic) by physical laws (even if all known conditions are the same, you still get different results).
Our universe is fundamentally probabilistic (stochastic), not deterministic.
I personally don't believe that to be the case, for if it were the case, then we must throw out causality in my opinion. Every effect is proceeded directly by a cause, there is no probability of an effect occurring from a cause, only the resulting action of the effect occurs. If you shuffle a deck of cards, there is no real probability of a particular sequence being dealt. To say there is, is to deny the conditions that occurred in which led to that sequence being dealt. This also applies to randomness and chance. Neither can exist as actualities unless one blatantly ignores all causation's that lead to their subsequent effects.
Randomness in Evolution is no where near random or by chance. A mutation occurs for various reasons, it has various causes to it's effect. Life doesn't randomly pop up and randomly evolve on random planet around random stars. There are a lot of conditions that *must* occur before any life can develop and evolve into new species once it's established. It has nothing to do with probabilities or randomness. Life simply won't develop on an inhospitable planet by random chance or by probabilistic occurrence. Conditions must be met before any event occurs.
To speak of randomness, chance and probabilities is to deny specific causation's that lead to specific events occurring. It's for fools and charlatans.
Even if all the variables are known, by mathematical axiom there would be a finite number of variables and yet the entire Universe has an infinite number of equations of state in order to accurately model everything. Or going the time derivative route, in order to map out the positions of all the particle-waves in the universe over time it would require an infinite amount of time derivatives of those positions. The only way to do it would be to measure all of the particle-wave positions at every instant in time for all eternity in order to get a continuous function.
Consider the weather, or stock market, or any chaotic system (that's the universe). If the chaotic system is recorded for 5 time periods it gives you no more accurate prediction of what the system will be at 6 time periods than recording for 6 time periods will give you a prediction of what will happen at 7 time periods. However, more accuracy is achieved when those time periods are smaller though, since over the shorter term any system should behave more linear while over the longer term any system should behave more chaotic. Even the most stable systems such as planets and the stars eventually deviate from their orbital paths in unpredictable paths.
But aren't probabilities the direct result of actions?
Incidentally, I don't believe in accidents and the chances of an accident are almost zero, in my book.
It would be like a 'glitch in the matrix' and I coined the phrase. Why do some people have bad luck and others seem to have a charmed life? Why is it when a person gets there mind out of the way and opens the door to success or abundance, it just happens? Is it our energy or thought that brings certain conditions right to us like a magnet?
During the day, we think of a certain person we haven't seen in years, and all of a sudden they show up or call. Why is it some people are killed in accidents and others survive? These are probabilities based on our own energy or thought processes or consciousness, This is something I can't explain, but I know it without a doubt and it's called causality.
If there was an earthly cataclysm, only 19 to 29 percent would survive and these are probablitites based on conditions. I don't think we can rule out probability, because there are variables and they change from moment to moment. So doesn't probability and causation go hand in hand depending on what actions I take today? If a person drinks and drives, there is at least a 50% chance that person will have an accident and the higher the amount, the more likely an accident will happen increasing the probability from 50 to 80 percent and up. Those are probabilities.
Also, I don't believe evolution is random, because I don't believe in accidents, but mutations can occur when conditions are right.
Originally posted by Astyanax
Yes, the probability that the 101st coin flip, or the 100-billion-and-first flip, will come out heads is still 50 percent. But the probability that you will throw heads at least once in a series of coin flips increases with the number of flips.
The probability of abiogenesis, meaning the probability of coming up with a viable molecular replicator under the conditions that existed on the primitive Earth, is the probability of a fairly limited series of chemical reactions are initiated by chance and take place in order. Given the rate of chemical reactions occurring on the Earth's surface, which must number in the trillions a minute or greater, abiogenesis--if it could occur at all--was not an unlikely event but a near-certainty.
1 - no evidence, there arent any examples of of primitive chemical structures that show any resemblance to life.
point still stands. one flip does not affect the probability of the next.