reply to post by Pellevoisin
Oh my.. I think it is the other way around.. The Indians need to wake up to the motives of the Chinese.
The primary motive is clear: They're probably military engg corps that are ensure that are building a transit route right down to Gwadar the Pak port
(built by the Chinese), so as to relieve themselves of the dependency on the Malacca Straits for energy. They know that is one area they will get
screwed over in a long drawn out conflict with a colossal naval power like the US. Block the supply of fuel and the Chinese will wither like the
Japanese did in WWII.
But honestly speaking.. this act will certainly shock and perplex/worry the Indians. Its like the Indians deploying a bunch of troops in Taiwan. I
mean, its a sensitive area which has always been a two-sided affair, bilateral.. If a third guy jumps into the fray.. at least one of the other two
(the uninformed one) will be like : wtf?!
One more interesting piece of info here: Chinese have started admitting people in Indian administered Kashmir with visas on pieces of paper. They do
not require to have an Indian passport. The same is not said for the people in Pak occupied Kashmir. The Chinese are indirectly 'not recognizing' the
Indian part of Kashmir as being under Indian sovereignty.
Its all boiling up to a tipping point. Now, who would help India, in case a surprise invasion (liberation in the minds of the aggressors) was carried
out in IoK by Chinese and Pak forces?
The 'moral motive' is almost ready in terms of presenting itself. Consider this:
The Army Commander of the Indian Army in Kashmir was denied a visa to China; now you cannot be more explicit than that:
Turmoil in Kashmir: People have started rioting and revolting in Kashmir for the last couple of months. 'Teenagers and children being shot, women
being raped' etc.. And I can confirm that this is total 180 degree switch from 2008 and 2009 where Anti-India sentiment was at its all-time lowest in
the last 2 decades in these 2 years. So it seems to be choreographed/canned or at least heavily supported covertly.
All this seems to be converging to one action: China + Pakistan prepping for a 'liberation' of Indian of Kashmir.they have the moral motive, they have
the geo-strategic motive and the economical motive.
Seems like an inevitability to me.
Who would help in India in such a case? The Russians would condemn any invasion, but Im not sure they would be prepped to put pressure on their border
with China, considering the complex situation of them having strong friendship and non aggression treaties with China. Maybe intelligence assistance
and economical assistance.
The Americans/West/Japan: well yes they would love to pressure China in the East, but other than PACCOM, the US military is stretched thin in
Middle-East. That is if they want to help. Maybe the Chinese look at Obama as being too indecisive and hesitant to intervene considering that the US
is still reeling from misfired interventions in that last decade, an economic crisis and a weakening opinion at home.
As such, anything more than intelligence, funding and some 'show of strength' in the Pacific would not be expected here, right?
So it comes down to India fighting it out on her own. She has been preparing war doctrines to fight the 2 front war with Pak and China at the same
time for over 5-6 years now, and the physical evidence of this in the bordering areas with China is beginning to show (forward air bases with
state-of-art fighters, new rail and road links, Early warning installations etc etc). Can she do it? Not comfortably, I don't think so not now at
least, and with China mordernizing its side of the border at the same time, I doubt India will be able to ever comfortably fight back a pincer war
with Pak and China.
If it has to go down, it must go down before any 'crazy' Republican govt comes back to power in the US. They will go in all guns blazing no matter
where the US is stretched thin
So I give a 2012 timeline to this.
There is one spanner in the gears for this seemingly well-choreographed plan: The floods in Pak. This will definitely deter and postpone any major
initiative from Pak to take part in a conflict. They dont have the money to do it. Unless China funds and logistically supports the entire thing.
edit on 18-9-2010 by Daedalus3 because: Floods spanner in the gears
How does China deploying troops in Pakistan protect China from India?
All it does is push India to react by doing something that is offensive to China. Its an aggressive move, not defensive in any sense.
edit on 18-9-2010 by Daedalus3 because: Reply to Skyvia.