Evacuation time running out for NY city

I posted this as a response on another thread but thought it was in the wrong area. Excuse me if it still is.

The MSM is covering Hurricane earl and have not raised any alarms. I would say that they don't want to cause a panic which I understand. The projected path shows it could hit NYC on friday. That 3 1/2 days from now. I would think that they might be a little concerned about this. Are they going to wait until thursday to see if its going to come close? You cannot evacuate NYC even if you started now. It just seems funny that this isn't mentioned. It makes sense to me and if I have thought of this then I guarantee someone who does this for a living has. The links below show some alarming scenarios.

Heres a link that allows you to see the effect of the rise in sea level for an area. You can see the areas that are flooded would be cut off from an evacuation. The front island that are cut off would be a total loss.

here


Heres a link of what would happen if a hurricane struck NY city. Basically says that a cat 3 storm would cutoff many major roads. Those that are cutoff would be underwater.

here

Heres some stats about NY city in a hurricane. Read through it and look at the part that talks about the Verrazano and George Washington bridge being closed down due to its height.
here

Thanks and would appreciate any responses, if anyone has knowledge of this, as to when the NHC would start to raise some alarms.







[edit on 30-8-2010 by jlafleur02]

Considering the previous storm to track up the east coast ended up going out into the North Atlantic I don't consider them waiting to be a bad thing, the evacuation of a place such as NYC is not something to take lightly. Just getting people to evacuate would take a miracle; for some reason people seem to think standing in the way of a hurricane is OK because they have opposable thumbs. The prospect of a storm hitting NYC is basically a doomsday discussion in the office; I suspect given the population density, design of the city and its transit system that a full evacuation would lead to gridlock, chaos and probably a sizable death toll from normal human stupidity. A direct hit to New York from this storm will probably dwarf Katrina in almost every way possible, especially if the architects didn't build those skyscrapers to deal with a hurricane.

reply to post by Helig
I hope your wrong about people evacuating. Many people will die if this does go up and hit NYC. I am watching this closely. Let hope it turns right out to sea

It has been awhile since a hurricane hit NYC or say Washington.

NOW, would that be divine providence?

Wunderground.com

Currently, there doesn't seem to be much risk of Earl tracking across Manhattan. I certainly agree that NYC is at risk of a hurricane catastrophe at some point, but it doesn't seem to be likely this time around.

Unless... HAARP! lol

[edit on 30-8-2010 by DamaSan]

Hurricanes tends to get weaker as the go up the eastern seaboard...Katrina was a Cat 4 or 5 and it hit a city below sea level. It wont be NEARLY as bad as that was.

But honest God, I was just playing my haarpe...

The Canadian east coasters all have rain gear so it won't hit there.

but watch the two big lows headed for the east coast Thursday / Friday.
If they merge, they might suck the Hurricane inland a little more then expected.

[edit on 30-8-2010 by Danbones]

Originally posted by DamaSan

Wunderground.com

Currently, there doesn't seem to be much risk of Earl tracking across Manhattan. I certainly agree that NYC is at risk of a hurricane catastrophe at some point, but it doesn't seem to be likely this time around.

Unless... HAARP!

lol

[edit on 30-8-2010 by DamaSan]

You can not trust a computer to do a correct weather report, for instinct
did the computer data predicted the cold winter blast of 2007 or was it 2006?
Nope the data wasn't correct.

reply to post by Agent_USA_Supporter


I never said these projected storm tracks were infallible; I said that it was unlikely to hit Manhattan. Besides, we all know that computer models aren't always right. That goes without saying.

Of course, humans aren't always right either

Bottom line is, it probably won't happen with Earl. But if this or any other hurricane hits NYC square on the nose, it's not gonna be pretty.

[edit on 30-8-2010 by DamaSan]

Heck, a monarch butterfly could fart and cause a chain reaction.

Weather forecasting and computer modeling is still in it's infancy.

I could have done as good a job as the model posted just by posting historical tracks, which is pretty much what the modeler does, with some variables added in for such things as the jetstream, low pressure and high pressure systems, etc etc etc.

The perfect storm comes to mind. Now that was a doozy.

reply to post by Danbones


Wat is the temp of the water up there? If it's below 75f the storm will likely lose strength and turn in to just a heavy rain. If I lived up north flooding is what I would be looking for if it comes near the NY coast!
But still they haven't said anything about heavy rains either!

reply to post by slinger


Wunderground.com

Looks pretty warm to me...

Check out this Flash-based hurricane tracker at Wunderground. (I kinda feel like a spokesperson all of a sudden! lol)

Originally posted by slinger
reply to post by Danbones

 

Wat is the temp of the water up there? If it's below 75f the storm will likely lose strength and turn in to just a heavy rain. If I lived up north flooding is what I would be looking for if it comes near the NY coast!
But still they haven't said anything about heavy rains either!

The weather channel said 80 degrees up to norfolf virginia. That is the temp that a hurricane sustains its force. Thats about 6 hours for NYC by a hurricane.

I started this thread because I was wondering why the media hasn't said a word about this scenario. If they wait a day then it would be too late to do much. The links in the OP show some scary stuff.

Crap! It's coming right at me and I never heard this on the news. Thanks for the heads-up

As usual itll likely loose much of its steam by the time its up to NYC...but it could still take the east copast by surprise.....
Even heavy winds could cause a lot of problems ....say 75 - 85 mph....
The implications are a little grimmer than the reaction possibly....The maritimes may get the worst of it....

I am in NYC and was a kid when the last hurricane came thru which I believe was hurricane Gloria sometime in the mid eighties. I was still in public school.

Other then flooding and some downed trees there was no real damage in the 5 boro's.

Long island had some power outage and some home damage but again nothing like the damage caused by hurricanes in the carribean or in the south.

I doubt even if it was going to come inland that there would be any evacuations. Maybe long island but the five boro's seems unnecessary.

Theres no need to worry. Living in Maine before we would get tail ends of hurricanes and direct hits once a few times a year. The hurricane will loose strength going north. Chances of it actually hitting NYC and remaining any reasonable strength that is needed to worry is slim to none.

Nobody brought up the problem with the Gulf Stream being all screwed up from the oil spill......seems to me all those computer projections don't mean squat if the gulf stream affects hurricane paths........maybe NYC is in for the big one?

It doesn't have to be a major hurricane to cause a crisis.

If the storm knocks out power for a few days, that's all it will take to make NY a very bad place to be. It's not the same result of Florida losing power.

If even one tunnel or bridge is taken out of service it will cause massive traffic jams.

It's near labor day anyway, if I lived on the East coast I would take an early vacation inland. (or at least make the reservations now, you could always cancel later).

Even if Earl doesnt surpass a cat 3 the path its taking right along the east coast is saturated with oil and corexit from the gulf current so any storm riding through is just going to pick it up and send it ashore