Solar Activity Watch 2010

Not much in activity today huh
Just a low energy sunspot,. though it is good in size,.
interesting how the CME's keep missing us,.

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


Isn't it interesting? It seems like we have been really lucky with the direction of the CME's lately....really lucky.

Hopefully they continue to miss us, but luck always does run out eventually.

I am not knowledgeable about the sun, but do have a question. Is there anything going on, say for the last few days, that could cause cell phone interruption in Northern New York

reply to post by Mahree


Not really, no. We are inside of a fast solar wind stream, and we have two quiet sun spots with no flares.

Besides that, there have been no Coronal Mass Ejections for a little while now.

What kinds of problems are you experiencing, besides the cell phone issue?



[edit on 26-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

just the cell phone interruption. It did sound as though there were more than a couple cells involved, now I only know of one personally.

Thank you for your answer it sounds as though we can rule out any sun activity problem.

reply to post by Mahree


Thank you for asking.

I hope that this thread can help people out with anything solar related.

Have you called your cell phone service provider? Maybe they were changing out signal towers or something like that.

I found a new thread here on ATS just now that is about a great picture of a sunspot. It is an amazing picture, an interesting thread, and worth a look. Check it out:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by Mahree

 

Thank you for asking.

I hope that this thread can help people out with anything solar related.

Have you called your cell phone service provider? Maybe they were changing out signal towers or something like that.

Yes, we have found out that was the problem, a downed tower.

I like to follow these threads as they are very interesting to me even though I don't often post.

Again, thank you for your help,

Mahree

Hi Mahree, I am glad that I was able to help out in a very small way.

By the way, there is an interesting debate going on at this ATS thread:
Massive solar storm to hit Earth in 2012 with 'force of 100m bombs'
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I almost posted on that thread, but it seems to be getting really polarized over there amongst the 2012 Doomers, the 2012 "Nothing gonna happen be happy" people, the 2012 Galatic Alignment believers, the end of the world Bible people, and there is no God people.

I rather focus on the science, and leave my opinion out of it.

First of all, NASA does not think the actual peak of Solar Maximum will be until 2013, and that it will actually be relatively weak comapred to past events: science.nasa.gov...

Second, if and when a large X-Class Solar Flare, or CME is unleashed, it has to actually hit us directly in order to have an effect, like the Carrington Event of 1859 when Northern Lights were seen as far south as Cuba: www.abovetopsecret.com...

A glancing blow can still harm our technology, if it is large enough, but in order to really hurt our modern society, it needs to be big, powerful, and directly aimed at us.

Right now, they are debating on the other thread about how our society will completly crumble because our techonology will be destroyed.

They are talking about everything from ancient Mayans to the Bible.

Personally, believe whatever you want. However, the data suggests that this Solar Maximum will not be that strong, and that it will not correspond with the 2012 stuff, but will actually take place in 2013.

I am not saying that everything will be peachy and happy, or that there will be total devastation. Rather, I present the data for you to make your decision. And the Data is leaning towards one recommendation in my opinion: Relax, watch, and listen.


A couple of additional Links regarding Solar Maximum:

THE 2012 DEBATE - SOLAR CYCLE 24
colinandrews.net...

Solar Activity (A good link for past articles on Solar Activity)
helios.gsfc.nasa.gov...


One other thing, the Sun is having very simliar conditions to yesterday. Still two quiet spots, even though 1101 is rather large.
spaceweather.com...

Have a great day!

Most unfortunately, the only ACTUAL FACT we have right now is that no one really understands what is going on with the sun. By that, I am referring to the professionals; Scientists do not seem to be in any type of agreement on the subject (as of yet).
I have a strong feeling there is a great deal of frantic research going on below the radar to try to get a hold on what we actually may be facing. I believe there is a certain truth the legends and that something is amiss; I think many of us sense it on some level. I'm not talking about hoakie new agey floaty things either. I'm referring to our connection to our surroundings as human beings living on a planet that is changing.

reply to post by jackieps1975


I can definitely agree with that.

Science has come a long way since the Carrington Event for example, but it still has a long way to go.

It does seem like every year or so, that some scientist changes the prediction for the next Solar Maximum, from horrible to blah.

However, I personally I think our planet needs to focus more on Earth and Solar Sciences until the point that we have enough data and facts to actually be able to 100% forecast massive Solar Activity, Earthquakes and Volcanos, as these all have the 'potential' to be society killers.

Once enough destruction happens, maybe we will awaken as a race and realize that we must learn much more about our environment in order to secure our future...then again, our species does have problems learning from our own past...like building cities on or next to volcanos and earthquake prone fault lines, or building all of our technology based on systems that are susceptible to attack from the Sun.

Good thread!
Here is the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) website:
It gives you a 3D view of the Sun and Heliosphere.
In near real time. I didn't see it added to the list of observational tools in this thread yet.
Enjoy:

stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

STEREO consists of two space-based observatories - one ahead of Earth in its orbit, the other trailing behind. With this new pair of viewpoints, scientists will be able to see the structure and evolution of solar storms as they blast from the Sun and move out through space.

-------------------------------------------
Just for fun....here is a pic of the flare from early Aug.

reply to post by Zeptepi


Hey thanks Zeptepi for that link indeed! And for your kind remark about this thread.

The 3-D modeling is fantastic.



[edit on 27-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

Originally posted by lasertaglover

Second, if and when a large X-Class Solar Flare, or CME is unleashed, it has to actually hit us directly in order to have an effect, like the Carrington Event of 1859 when Northern Lights were seen as far south as Cuba: www.abovetopsecret.com...

There is a difference between solar flares and CMEs.

A solar flare is a brightening of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun. There are different types of flares. It can be radio waves, it can be visible light, it can be ultraviolet, it can be xrays. The current classification system is based on xray emissions, specifically "soft" xrays. Flares are pretty harmless (satellites are easily shielded against them), but they can affect the ionosphere, and that can affect radio communications. Even an X-class flare is not that big a deal (unless you are a radio or satellite operator). Being electromagnetic radiation, flares extend in all directions from the Sun and expand at the speed of light.

A CME is an ejection of material (plasma) from the Sun. They are directional, in order for Earth to be affected it has to be aimed at Earth. They also travel much slower than the speed of light, usually taking several days to arrive after leaving the Sun. When a CME arrives it can disrupt the Earth's magnetosphere and cause a geomagnetic storm. It is geomagnetic storms which cause problems with out power grids.

CMEs are often, but not always, associated with solar flares. The intensity of one is not necessarily related to the intensity of the other.

reply to post by Phage


Absolutely, and thanks for the great description of both! I was bothered by the fear mongering on the other thread and was trying to make a point.

By the way, I did look up that David Reneke mentioned in that threads main article..he is an astronomy speaker, and salesperson for telescopes. Trying to land more sales I think.

Already..good Saturday morning to ya, or wherever you are, lol.

Only one supspot facing us right now...biggy but quiet 1101.

Right before 1100 exited stage right, it did pop off a couple of B-class x-ray events, and a CME associated with a filament did occure yesterday, but not earth directed.

We are down to a 30% chance of geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours, as we are still in a solar wind stream.

Just a nice, quiet day..so have a great one!

“The next solar maximum might come early, too, says Hathaway. "Solar activity intensifies rapidly after solar minimum. In recent cycles, Solar Max has followed Solar Min by just 4 years." Do the math: 2006 + 4 years = 2010.”

science.nasa.gov...

Is this the case? Is this solar maximum happening now?

The above article also says,

“Solar minimum and solar maximum--"Solar Min" and "Solar Max" for short--are two extremes of the sun's 11-year activity cycle. At maximum, the sun is peppered with spots, solar flares erupt, and the sun hurls billion-ton clouds of electrified gas toward Earth. It's a good time for sky watchers who enjoy auroras, but not so good for astronauts who have to be wary of radiation storms. Power outages, zapped satellites, malfunctioning GPS receivers--these are just a few of the things that can happen during Solar Max.”

Are they talking about Power outages and such here on earth?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/75bda5aa0026.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone

That article is from 2004. The information is very obsolete.
No, we are not at solar maximum.

Yes they are talking about power outages on Earth being caused by solar activity. But they can happen at any time during the solar cycle, not only at solar maximum.

reply to post by OceanStone


He is correct. We could have a CME next week, or in 20 years that does actually have the size, speed, and direction to impact our technology in some pretty negative ways.

But no, the next Solar Maximum is now predicted by NASA to actually peak in 2013, and that it is not going to be as severe as originally predicted. However, even if the 2013 is the strongest Solar Maximum in recorded history, it does not spell doom for our planet. Space is a very large place, and when the Sun shoots something, it is like firing a very high-powered rifle in random directions with a blindfold on in complete 360 degrees in all aspects, and at the same time, trying to hit the Earth which is a rather small bullseye on a target somewhere within your field of fire.

It can, and someday might happen, but the odds of it happening are not that much different in 2012, and only a teensy bit higher in 2013.

However, that is why it is important to track and watch solar activity, IMO, as much as possible. And by the way, sunspot 1101 is still quiet, and a new sunspot is forming right now.

spaceweather.com...

Sunspots 1101 and 1102 are both quiet.

Space Weather has a cool 30-hour time lapse movie from a wild filament that took off on Aug 24th and 25th. No impacts or effects headed towards earth as most of the ejected material fell back into the sun. It takes a minute to load on slower systems, but worth it:

spaceweather.com...

spaceweather.com...