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"Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent."
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory, and is also the director of New York University's Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy. He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using an unpublished and proprietary computer model based on game theory and rational choice theory.
Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics that is used in the social sciences, most notably in economics, as well as in biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, or games, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others.
Bueno de Mesquita’s prediction regarding Iran was on target. Months after that February forecast, a New York Times article on Sept. 9 said American intelligence reports concluded that Iran “has deliberately stopped short of the critical last steps to make a bomb.”
Originally posted by Common Sense says...
The show he was featured on was "The Next Nostradamus" which aired on the History Channel.