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Man has been predicting future with %90 accuracy! (Iran's Future Predicted)

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posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 11:36 AM
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While in the loo this morning, reading New Scientist I found about about a man I never heard of, I found this interesting, did a little digging and now sharing it with you. Hope you enjoy it.

No, he’s not a psychic, he doesn’t use random number generator, he doesn’t use software similar to webbot… instead he uses “science” to create Game Theories.



"Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent."

www.newscientist.com...

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been doing this for decades and has claimed to have %90 accuracy. US Government hired him as a contractor during 90s to create a Game Theory for India and it’s political upcoming. Since he did his thesis on India he was a good candidate. He personally predicated some changes would occur that in fact his software next day told him otherwise. He presented what his software told him what may happen… with %100 accuracy all predict events with the political shift in India happened. He has since done many, many predictions one being the Iran’s Future, which we’ll look at further down.

Here's a quick bio on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita;



Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory, and is also the director of New York University's Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy. He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell[1], that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using an unpublished and proprietary computer model based on game theory and rational choice theory.

en.wikipedia.org...

Here’s his official site, with some very interesting thoughts on it. Feel free to read some of his thoughts. A much more in detail Game Theory on Iran.
www.predictioneersgame.com...

Now let's look at what Game Theory is;



Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics that is used in the social sciences, most notably in economics, as well as in biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, or games, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others.

en.wikipedia.org...

This is normally done by think tanks for CIA/FBI. With his software however he can get much more accurate predication, as his formulas are constantly being improved over time. He recently did a prediction about Iran and I find it very interesting. It seems, very plausible.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future


The author of The Predictioneers’ Game sheds light on the ways that game theory can forecast political and corporate outcomes. (Watch the 45 min. video)


Bueno de Mesquita’s prediction regarding Iran was on target. Months after that February forecast, a New York Times article on Sept. 9 said American intelligence reports concluded that Iran “has deliberately stopped short of the critical last steps to make a bomb.”

www.kellogg.northwestern.edu...

This seems very plausible to me, in fact very accurate of what is currently happening there. What’s your thought?


PS.
Also I found a website that I think is his software for public, I haven’t figured out how it works just yet (at work atm), maybe you can try it out and post your predictions here!

imcomputerconsulting.com...

[edit on 19-8-2010 by freighttrain]

[edit on 19-8-2010 by freighttrain]

[edit on 19-8-2010 by freighttrain]




posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 11:54 AM
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This seems very interesting to me... nice find, OP! I'll need to watch your video still, but very intriguing.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 11:55 AM
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i got a crappy connection, can you tell me what it says? it sounds interesting



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:09 PM
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I recall him being on a documentary comparing him to Nostradamus, calling him the modern-day equivalent. I don't remember what it's called nor what channel it was on though!



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:12 PM
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reply to post by 2weird2live2rare2die
 


Here’s a detail prediction he did on Iraq and Iran; Also very interesting.
www.predictioneersgame.com...

Let me dig a little more, I found a .pdf of his prediction Iran that was very detail… I’ll edit and add the .pdf to this post.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:18 PM
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The show he was featured on was "The Next Nostradamus" which aired on the History Channel.

Here is a summary of the show:

The Next Nostradamus
Two men with the unique ability to predict the future possess distinctly different backgrounds: Michel de Nostradamus was a sixteenth-century French visionary who became one of the most famous seers in the world. Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a twenty-first-century political scientist who is a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institute..

While Nostradamus looked to the stars and mysticism to divine his apocalyptic revelations, Dr. Bueno de Mesquita predicts future events by relying on one of the most powerful tools ever invented: the computer. In this captivating special, explore the enigmatic and storied history of prophecy as well as the science and groundbreaking technology currently being used to uncover what tomorrow has in store. Learn how, using a complex algorithm, Bueno de Mesquita predicted the second Intifada two years before it happened and how he warned of a violent crackdown on dissidents by the Chinese government just four months before the tragedy at Tiananmen Square..

From World War III to famine to the coming of the Antichrist, THE NEXT NOSTRADAMUS is a startling look at the remarkable similarities between the ancient predictions of the past and the high-tech divinations of today.


www.newvideo.com...

Pretty good show, I have seen it a couple of times and find it very intriguing indeed.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:49 PM
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reply to post by EnlightenUp
 


Awesome, can you find out what this documentary was called? Very interesting…

[edit on 19-8-2010 by freighttrain]



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:50 PM
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reply to post by 2weird2live2rare2die
 


Sorry it took a while to get back, had to write these out from his video. Okay, here it is in short point from the TED presentation he did; he does 3 major predication based on simulated computer predication, on a high level; I believe this was done in 2008 predicting 2009/2010

What is Iran going to do about nuclear weapons?
What is the future of Iran’s theocratic regime?
What is Ahmadinejad’s future?

He then compares 2 different charts, one “most likely” which is based on decision makers that are “influencing” changes in Iran (US, Brittan and so called western powers). The other graph show what would happen, if OTHER international would NOT influence or pressure Iran and would leave them alone.

If pressured;

- Iran “wants” to build a bomb / Make enough fuel to build a bomb

If NOT pressured:

- Make just enough fuel to make a bomb, to show “they can” but at the last crucial step to make a bomb, they stop (make enough via research quantity)

In regards to political powers; 2009-2011

- 2009-2011 Civilian energy gets more and more
- 2009 Very little research; 2010 HUGE research WGF, 2011 slowly less research
- 2009 Very high chance of building a bomb, 2010 drop in potential, 2011 starts going back up
- 2009 The intention is to build a bomb so they can “test” it. But that chances of that happening in 2010 and 2011 drops to zero, they have no support.

Who are the winners and the looser in political status (power) in Iran’s future?

- Ahmadinejad is on drop of support (internally and the people). He’s not the major player in Iran.
- Supreme Leader on a drop around end of 2009 and slow rise in 2010
- The quiet ayatollahs are going become more vocal, they are the major influence over religion. On the rise
- The Bazaar and Economic groups (such as Oil and Resources) are on a huge rise and will be the MOST influential over Iran’s future. They hold the most amount of power and will be on the rise.
- Foreign Policy makers on the rise



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 12:52 PM
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reply to post by Common Sense says...
 


How I've missed this I don't know. It is like the rare gem you find in a pile of garbage... very kwel. Thanks for the link



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 01:35 PM
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reply to post by 2weird2live2rare2die
 


Yes he is saying: Iran i am very clever and you better listen, but i think he is trying to freak out the enemy



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 01:39 PM
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The guy is rather interesting, if I remember correctly he uses a variant of Game Theory for his predictions.


[edit on 19 Aug 2010 by schrodingers dog]



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 01:43 PM
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Originally posted by Common Sense says...
The show he was featured on was "The Next Nostradamus" which aired on the History Channel.

Ehem, I heard they guy has a lot of connections, if you know what I mean.

I also have watched the documentary, btw.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 01:45 PM
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How it must feel to have such a gift! Remarkable. I can't guarantee 90% accuracy from my past, let alone the future.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 02:13 PM
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Webster Tarpley gives some very good information on the ground if you want to make some predictions based on a reality .Guns and Butter interview .. www.kpfa.org... peace



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 03:25 PM
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reply to post by jaysinn
 


lol, it would be interesting to see if psychologist can define the term intuition and a scientist can create logic on that. They can then map out how one's intuition works with their logic and with that create a software application that can mimic the behavior but not the context. Sort of like 1+2=3. Fill in the blanks and let the software give you an unbiased answer... now that would be a neat AI.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 03:26 PM
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reply to post by the2ofusr1
 


Does he also use Game Theories or take what the news says and connects dots?



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 03:33 PM
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reply to post by freighttrain
 
I am not sure what sort of method he uses but I, being a INFJ get the feeling that he is a sincere, honest and connected individual.

[edit on 19-8-2010 by the2ofusr1]



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 03:48 PM
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I'm familiar with his work and I find it unfair to compare him to Nostradamus. Nostradamus issued vague prophecies based on, well, no-one is really sure but it's implicitly some sort of occultism. Game Theory is very different, it analyzes the potential outcomes on a decision tree and determines the best course of action. Unfortunately, human beings aren't always rational and don't necessarily make the best decisions, hence, his 10% failure rate. The alarmism that permeates so many threads here on ATS is based on underestimating human rationality, hence the 99% failure rate of all the "100% Chance World War Three Will Start On Monday" threads here.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 03:57 PM
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According to his "predictions" regarding Iran, I tend to take him as a mind conditioning tool. Just like we had been conditioned to link muslin countries and terrorism in the years before 9/11.

Furthermore, the comparison with Nostradamus is absurd. Predictions and prophecies are very distinct things.



posted on Aug, 19 2010 @ 04:18 PM
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reply to post by DJW001
 


Nostradamus was correct. However since he used three different languages to write his predictions I believe the people who interpreted them did it wrong. I personally believe Nostradamus predicted the past and future.



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