Alot of 'ifs' and speculation in the OP. Aside from my bias opinion that aliens will make an appearance in 2012, I also disagree with the populace
being wiped out with an other worldly pandemic.
Think about it, If these alien visitors can travel light years across universes, Is it really beyond them to have a cure for all diseases? I don't
think so.
Secondly the swine flu killed roughly 17,000 by the end of 09 which, if compared to other pandemics, is minor. So if the alien virus is as you
theorize. I very much doubt that it'll be the end of us... We're more likely to make an exit during a nuclear holocaust started by us.