Hindenburg Omen: Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent?

If there is one thing I agree with on ATS, it is that the USA economy will collapse. I'm not so convinced it's ready to yet but it can't be more than 2-3 years away and it could happen in October 2010.

Predicting when it starts changes nothing and worrying about it changes nothing.

Originally posted by franspeakfree
Is this a private party or can anyone join in?

The correlation rate for the Hindenburg omen is 25%. One in four signals result in a crash of 7% or more. That is a high correlation for a technical indicator but no sure thing. Same signal over on the FTSE so if the markets do drop it will be a global wave event.

For those of us who are not aware in the slightest of a Hindenburg Omen and don't speak business language (above) such as my good self. Would someone be so kind as to explain this situation in words that I can undertand

[edit on 16-8-2010 by franspeakfree]

The article does a good job of explaining it. Its when simultaneously there is a high level of record highs and lows. The market is moving in two different directions. This confuses ' the herd' . When this is noticed it is reffered to the Hindenburg because it will crash and burn.

The lemmings will start jumping over the cliff edge.

Would be surprised to see a big crash because I think the whole thing is been manipulated now. Anything panicky now and its all put down to technical corrections or adjusments. Its as fake as everything else now.

[edit on 16-8-2010 by JohnySeagull]

reply to post by JohnySeagull


Botox for the Economy.

It's all the rage, don't you know?

We just got to keep in mind that no matter how much we inject, we'll still die eventually.

[edit on 16-8-2010 by rajaten]

Things are in motion.

Will you be a victim? I know I wont.







[edit on 16-8-2010 by rajaten]

reply to post by mother1138

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perhaps there are indications of a Hindenberg event, or other stirrings
that presage a market downturn.

But..... there is also a new wrinkle affecting the markets that were not
around in earlier incarnations of hindenberg omens or whatever,


the new factor is Quantitive Easing, where it is expected by the
insiders privy to market manipulation by the PPT & the dozen or so 'Primary Dealer' banks to be the means from which the Federal Reserve injects over
$2.5 Trillion into the market & economy in FY 2010 AND another $2.5 Trillionin FY 2011 - for a total injection of money of $5 trillion dollars ...
the FED views this action as a 'Stimulus' which in turn will, ~create a round of Inflation~... or so the model projects will happen


the FED with the great Bernanke, (being the sage of the great depression)
has painted themselves in a corner, and this $5 trillion injection is their
only solution to keep the casino system afloat and hoping a recovery
will catch up to the elites money madness.


ya'll get ready for a deflationary depression & then hyper inflation, all within the decade for sure

Well looks like the MSM is picking up on the soon to be market crash ans recession.

Yahoo news is readying the public opinion.

What a double dip recession will look like

reply to post by St Udio


To continue your line of thinking, it's important to remember that alot of the modeling done on the markets was created when the markets operated in the 'traditional' manner. Things have changed. The large hedge funds and use of sophisticted automated trading by large volume traders (not us mortal folk) have completely changed the way the markets behave.

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
Something tells me that that is nothing to worry about.
And that the market will actually become very solid within this next year,
and stay that way for a while,.
just a hunch

I definitely disagree. With wars being fought, deficits growing, commodities becoming more expensive, people becoming dissidents and one of the lowest trusts in government for the longest time, im assuming it will get worse before it gets better.

Maybe thats just me...

It's going to totally collapse. How many warnings do people need? It's been collapsing for a few years now. It's just wishful thinking that it's going to get better. We are living in the "better" right now.

Denial isn't a river in Egypt.

Well I guess I better renew my wholesale membership and start stocking up on caned goods a bullets again. After the down turn in July and its swift recovery in the past few weeks, I was really hoping things were going to make a turn for the better.
But after these reports
The new job loss data,
The reduced consumer confidence,
10 year note down to 2.60% (way low)
Housing floundering, (the banks are selling more homes than builders)
Plus it looks as though we are going to start QE2
I just don’t seem to get that worm cozy feeling from this supposed economic recovery. It would appear to me that we may be looking at the end of a suckers rally.

Originally posted by Bordon81
The correlation rate for the Hindenburg omen is 25%. One in four signals result in a crash of 7% or more. That is a high correlation for a technical indicator but no sure thing. Same signal over on the FTSE so if the markets do drop it will be a global wave event.

Actually if the S&P put in a double bottom just above 1000 that would still qualify as a 7% drop, but would give the technical traders a solid floor.

Actually, 77% of the signals precede a market downturn of at least 5%. You seem to have chosen 7% so you could try to make the signal less relevant. Also, since 1985, 25 years, the signal has been 100% accurate. So mess with the data all you like to try to mean something other than it does, but what you are trying to sell as the truth, just isn't

The thing I find most interesting in this Hindy is the MSM's interest in reporting it. When we got the cluster of them in Summer of '08 I don't think I saw a single MSM article about them and there was a cluster of them. This time we get one by the book signal preceded by a near miss and it's all over the MSM. The cluster of Hindys in '08 was followed by crazy stuff like ban's on shorting financials, and then the collapse of lehman followed by the takeover of wachovia and merryl.

I'm somewhat in agreement with OBE1 though, there is no telling whether the signal is even valid when about the only market participants right now are HFT computers and the PPT (which in my mind is not just the "working group" but all the primary dealers using their profits from being a PD to prop the markets). However, Bernake's toolbox is bare right now compared to even '08. No room to cut rates when they might as well be zero now. About all he can do is QE (fancy word for printing).

I know that many consider the near miss followed by an actual Hindy a confirmed signal (that's not without precedent either), I'd still rather see another signal within the 40 day time frame from Thursday's.

This is crawling all over the internet at the minute, you beat me too it. I think this is definately worth watching, suprised this has'nt had more attention here yet. Good find.

Hindernburg Omen

WIKI

Telegraph

Video discussing the Hindernburg Omen. Good introduction for people who have never heard of this before and need a little background.

*Edit to add the following video, basically another explanation of the Omen.



[edit on 19-8-2010 by carlitomoore]

Stock market traders and pundits like to use two tough animals - bulls and bears - to describe themselves and what they do.

The reality is, however, that they behave more like sheep and pussies looking for reasons to sell and not to buy.

Anyone paying attention to the "explanations" they give these days for huge drops in the market? They are quite obviously BS like "the Dow dropped a hundred points over concerns about the fires in Russia". That's really the reason the rest of us just lost a bunch of money? Right ...

www.zerohedge.com...

The first confirmation happened today, a week after the initial H.O. This is quite significant. Sorry bulls.

reply to post by Mr Poopra


Yup, August 12th and confirmed on August 19th. Two within a 36 day window. LOOK OUT BELOW !!!




[edit on 8/20/2010 by Erasurehead]

The real Hindenburg airship lost altitude slowly as the flames devoured the overhead support. Many of the casualties waited till the passenger cabin made landfall before exiting including the captain and they later died from the horrible burns. This event took place in 1937 before the US took sides in WW2.

Is there any special reason why this market signal named after the Hindenburg disaster? They could have named it after any of a plethora of historical harbingers or disasters. Is there a possible conspiracy here?



[edit on 20-8-2010 by Bordon81]

Originally posted by xxshadowfaxx
I doubt that the market is going to crash. Its a volatile market, it goes up and down. Economy is improving here in canada, the usa might tank, but that's about it. People been saying its going to crash every day for the past year, well, guess what...... still hasn't. But keep guessing, you'll be right some day.

I don't know which scale you use to measure that the economy is improving in Canada, but when I see many clients maxing out their credit cards with the insanely high limits and equally high interest rates I tend not to think in terms of recovery.

True the number of people visiting the local Timmy's has continued to grow, but long term higher paying jobs are still considered elusive. There is some motion in the housing markets, but not near what it was a few years ago. If the USA tanks, Canada will be soon after of that you can be very very sure.

..Ex