Is Escalating Earthquake Energy being concealed by scientific platitudes?
You are probably familiar with the feeling that the numbers and intensity of earthquakes around the world seems to be increasing. This is something
that we see posted in threads and forums both within and external to ATS.
But what is the real story?
According to the scientists there is no increase in earthquake activity in 2010 over and above normal and 2010 is not as bad as 2007 which was the
worst year of the decade 2000 to 2009.
You will also I have no doubt be familiar with the stream of earthquakes that have occurred and are still occurring at Baja California after the 7.2
quake earlier this year. There have been over 14,000 quakes, but they have for the most part been small.
But that ONE 7.2 was more powerful than all 14,000+ subsequent quakes by a substantial margin.
This set of figures puts it in perspective.
All of the 14,000+ quakes only came to 1.9 units against 63+ for the single 7.2
So, let's take a look at the earthquake figures for 2000 to 2010. You can check the figures for yourself
It is my contention that what we should
be looking at is not the number of earthquakes but the amount of energy that is being released. I
believe that the equation I use is joules, but I am not a scientist, just a programmer! The formula I am using is 10^(1.5*(Magnitude Of Quake)) You
can read about some of the mathematics here
and there are other
links off that to other formulae.
What the units are does not particularly matter as long as the formula is consistently applied to the figures to produce a result.
In this table you will see the number
of earthquakes and next to that the energy release
for all those earthquakes. Each quake has to be
calculated separately so I have downloaded from ANSS the data for all quakes of 6.0 and above for each of the years.
This shows the number of megajoules (1,000,000 joules), or as I am calling them in this exercise Energy Units for each magnitude value in the 6-6.9
For 2010 I have shown the actual values and the extrapolated value based on an equal ratio in the remainder of the year.
Let's take a look at the NUMBERS
of earthquakes in each year above as a graph.
2010 definitely looks as if it is going to be as bad as 2007 in the 6.0-6.9 range, worse than any of the years in the 7.0-7.9 range, and possibly not
as bad in the 8+ range. (2007 had 4 8+ quakes)
Even on numbers then the extrapolation definitely is looking as if it will be the heaviest year of the 11 year period.
So what of the ENERGY RELEASE
What has happened here? 2004 has a much higher energy release than any of the other years. This is of course the 9.0
As you can see from the graph even all 4 8+ quakes of bad old 2007 (according to the scientists) do not come up to one third of the energy released by
that ONE single 9.0
You can also see that the potential 2 number 8+ quakes for 2010 are over half the energy of the 9.0. Why? Because Chile was an 8.8, and I have
extrapolated another 8.5.
The curvy lines are polynomial trends and you can see that whilst 6 and 7 ranges are fairly steady, the 8s are showing a marked increase.
Finally, what does all this look like as a single energy total for each year?
Total Energy Release (Figures)
Total Energy Release (Graph)
In my humble opinion the total amount of energy being produced by earthquakes is increasing, and possibly significantly, and this fact is being hidden
in the numbers which as numbers alone do not tell the full story.
[edit on 10/8/2010 by PuterMan]