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Murder Predicting Computers Could Tell Who Gets Out of Prison

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posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 03:16 PM
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The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

Murder Predicting Computers Could Tell Who Gets Out of Prison




The way things usually go is that is a parole board has to deliberate over a convicted person's past crimes and their behavior to determine if they are fit for release from prison. Now, a college professor says that computers could fulfill this role with greater accuracy.

"This system can forecast which inmates will kill again," says University of Pennsylvania professor Richard Berk. "With the help of years of computer data, I can separate the really bad guys being released from the people who probably won't re-offend."


original source article at:

The Morning Call.



I came across this article a few moments ago, and I'm not so sure something of this nature is all that terrible an idea.

Curious what others think.

Care to weigh in?


As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.







[edit on 8/10/10 by GENERAL EYES]




posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 03:19 PM
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It's a terrible idea because it's based on probability and not on individual cases, you can't appeal to a computer, and if it were you on the receiving end of it that sure would suck.

"You will murder again."

"No I won't"

"Computer said you will it's life for you buddy."



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 03:19 PM
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worse yet imagine that happens to you and then the computer releases another dude who goes out and kills people

you're still stuck for life even though the computer had been wrong before.



Also, don't forget "tampering."

Remember Diebold?

[edit on 10-8-2010 by sremmos]



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 03:23 PM
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I cannot help but question how reliable these computers are. Forget the judgement based on probablility (that's already twisted enough!), if these machines do see service then it would be inevitable for them at some point to condem a person who has no intention of killing again.

[edit on 10-8-2010 by Xammu]



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 03:43 PM
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The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.



I agree the potential for misuse/over-dependance does exist.

The one thing that has me fascinated is wondering exactly how the predictive algorithm is going to make these "predictions".

I'm not a coding expert, but I still believe there is a slim, slim chance it might be effective with the right degree of unbiased input, as well as priors and current behaviors of said inmates.

If nothing else, it's an interesting gateway to future crime preventative technology...

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 04:10 PM
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I was watching a disaster show lastnight actually concerning the King's Cross Subway fire.

The researchers into the cause for the disaster kept repeating how unreliable computer simulations were VS real world tests. Although the simulation did ultimately mirror the results of a scale model test, the researchers did repeat yet again that the simulation only provided clues for what to watch closely.

I found this interesting because of the number of times I have seen the exact opposite; the computer simulation is the end-all-be-all.

In the context of this thread: If engineers cannot completely trust the computer modelling results for something like a fire in a subway station what chance do programmers have to accurately predict the choices of a human brain?



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 08:42 PM
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reply to post by GENERAL EYES
 


Jail and or prison does nothing to actually rehabilitate convicts.

While I can see misuse for this computer I can see it being wrong as well.

Make them break rocks, go to school/college, and become better people through actual rehabilitation, instead of Crime College with the ignorant cliques they have now.

They all sit there and become better criminals instead of better people.

Not that murderers will necessarily rehabilitate but there is a small potential.



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 08:49 PM
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Here's an idea.

Do a double blind study with this machine for 15 years.

Compare its "picks" to the picks of the human parole board.

If the computer wins by a large margin I'm willing to play ball.

I bet this never happens and instead some half baked study is done for like 12 months with cooked results. Or worse yet no study is done. Than the "parole computer" gets put into place permanently,



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 08:50 PM
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reply to post by SpartanKingLeonidas
 


I agree that prison does nothing to rehabilitate people, but I am not sure all people can be rehabilitated. Some people should just be locked up away from others. Something in their makeup just makes them unfit to be a part of society.

That said, it is a very small percentage of people who are by nature not fit to live around others. (And quite a few of them end up running stuff, unfortunately) It would be nice if we actually went to work on the underlying problems that result in people committing crimes with real vigor, instead of focusing so much time, money and effort into locking them up once they do.



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 08:58 PM
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Originally posted by sremmos
It's a terrible idea because it's based on probability and not on individual cases


You could say the same for humans judging. "It's a terrible idea because it's based on individuals and not probability".

You can humanly analyze a quarter to determine if it will land heads or tails on a flip, but examining it's scratches, negligible weight distribution, edges, and shininess won't get you anywhere. Probability has the last say. You never know how the quarter will interact with the one who is flipping it, the air resistance, the surface it lands on, etc... etc...

It works the same way with humans. You can examing and judge them all you want, but actions don't solely come from the mind. They are created from input by the environment (everything external to the human mind).



posted on Aug, 12 2010 @ 09:47 PM
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Gosh,...
I thought they already did a movie on this blarny
yeah and the lead character was that Scientology guy Cruise

[edit on 12-8-2010 by Lil Drummerboy]



posted on Aug, 12 2010 @ 10:15 PM
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Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
reply to post by SpartanKingLeonidas
 


I agree that prison does nothing to rehabilitate people, but I am not sure all people can be rehabilitated. Some people should just be locked up away from others. Something in their makeup just makes them unfit to be a part of society.


Well, apart from sociopaths, and politicians, who else?

And sometimes those are one and the same.

Please note, the "who else" was more or less me being facetious.

I do understand exactly where you're coming from and who you mean.


Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
That said, it is a very small percentage of people who are by nature not fit to live around others. (And quite a few of them end up running stuff, unfortunately) It would be nice if we actually went to work on the underlying problems that result in people committing crimes with real vigor, instead of focusing so much time, money and effort into locking them up once they do.


Well, that being said, we would have to start at the top.

The elite families those born with silver spoons in their mouth would be first.

Their inbreeding between families definitely cause the same disease as A.K.C. dogs, where the synapses in their brain are not firing correctly.

Due to the wiring within their brain and their brain outgrowing their skull.

Speaking of "skulls", Skull and Bones, would be a great start.

Sick, diseased, and amoral they believe they are untouchable.

I see them as nothing more than a cancer on society.

The problem with the Murder Predicting Computer used on them?

It would predict everyone of them would commit murder.

The question is whether it is one murder or mass murder.






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