Russia and Iran: Is the honeymoon really over?

Russia and Iran: Is the honeymoon really over?

www.kurdishglobe.net

When Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told foreign ambassadors last month that Iran was moving closer to the potential to create nuclear weapons, some political analysts argued that Russia had recently been demonstrating a clear U-turn in its position toward Iran. While Russia's recent behavior indicates further evidence to back up this view, since then policymakers have confronted this crucial question: Is the honeymoon really over between Russia and Iran?

(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 8/7/2010 by ~Lucidity]

I guess time will tell if the honeymoon is over.

A lot of this comes from the sanctions and how far Russia is willing to distance itself from Iran to cooperate or appear to be cooperating with the most recent sanctions.

Chances are very good, as evidenced by some articles posted here in the past 7 weeks or so, that there might still trading on the black market or by proxy through other channels. Apparently, despite the sanctions, there are companies (not saying Russian here) still doing business in and with Iran, so it's not out of the question that "sanctions" are being violated on some levels and might be on others.

In geopolitics, it's all about perception and not showing your hand to soon or at the wrong time, and things can change in a second should other events come to pass. Tomorrow Russia might be backing Iran in a war or they might stay neutral. I have my doubts that they'd back the U.S. entirely should it come to that. It all depends on where the greatest benefit is for them to retain their interests.

So, just tuck this bit of information with a grain of salt, and tuck it away for further reference when putting all the pieces of the puzzle together.

Also, just found this: Is Russia's Backing of Iran Sanctions Starting to Fray?

www.kurdishglobe.net
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 8/7/2010 by ~Lucidity]

reply to post by ~Lucidity


doesnt this show,
if your going to choose an ally,
dont go with russia as they will simply stab you in the back?

My question is what did the U.S do to make Russia turn on Iran?

reply to post by hippomchippo


If we only knew what happens behind closed doors!

My guess would be money and/or business sweeteners. I heard the Russians were going to submit a USAF Tanker proposal.

Or maybe let the Russians get more military contracts. I read somewhere about sales to Latin American countries heating up for them.

Whatever it was, it was persuasive.

reply to post by illusive man


I think almost any ally will. And the U.S. has done it to allies too.

As I always say, in geopolitics, enemies only exist until there is a mutual or common benefit or need, and allies only exist until there isn't a a mutual or common benefit or need. Relationships are temporary according to interest.

What's going on with the other Arab nations and Iran now in the Middle East is a prime example of this.

Our "relationships" with India, China, and Pakistan are too.

[edit on 8/7/2010 by ~Lucidity]

reply to post by hippomchippo


You know, that's a good question. I can't think of anything offhand.

I can think of a scenario where Russia might be in the same position as the U.S. is now with Iran...wanting to control Iran's real estate, pipelines, and so one. But I'd say that their relations with Iran might lean toward more mutually beneficial and more cooperative tactics than the U.S. is employing,

Maybe Russia (much like China, I'd say) is just sitting back and waiting for the U.S. to wear ourselves out in the Middle East and Central Asia so they can move in...either diplomatically/mutually beneficially, or with aggression and interventionism like the U.S. Which path they choose? Who knows.

reply to post by ErEhWoN

Whatever's mutually beneficial, for as long as it's mutually beneficial.

That's interesting about the USAF stuff. Thanks.

This is interesting too: Q&A-What are Russia's energy interests in Iran?

I thought the Russians could think for themselves and would never bow to the US (according to everyone on ATS). Hmmmm.

Originally posted by hippomchippo
My question is what did the U.S do to make Russia turn on Iran?

The honeymoon isn't even close to over regarding those two countries. Don't think even for a second that they aren't able to get in what they need to get in regarding supplies. There are so many back-channels that what the average person sees is simply a joke. Russia is playing their cards well (as I'd expect from Putin).

If Israel and the US attack Iran, it won't be just Russia that's pissed, it'll be China as well. Don't think for a second that Russia and China aren't continually annoyed at our belligerent aggression in the Middle East. They've been waiting for a good excuse to slap America hard, and an attack on a Russian built reactor complex in Iran (full of Russian citizen contractors) may be just what breaks the camels back.

I've actually watched that war game play out, and it's not something that ends well for billions of people. I suppose that's a quick way to effect population control.

Originally posted by princeofpeace
I thought the Russians could think for themselves and would never bow to the US (according to everyone on ATS). Hmmmm.

Originally posted by hippomchippo
My question is what did the U.S do to make Russia turn on Iran?

Just because they think for themselves doesn't mean the U.S cannot bribe them in some way. It could honestly be anything, and I'm also sure that Russia wouldn't want to defend Iran in a scenario that could provoke world war 3 if Russia gets involved.

Nah...Russia is too big and bad to take bribes. Plus their gov't is way too ethical to do such a thing. They would tell the US to go screw themselves. They love Iran.

Originally posted by hippomchippo

Originally posted by princeofpeace
I thought the Russians could think for themselves and would never bow to the US (according to everyone on ATS). Hmmmm.

Originally posted by hippomchippo
My question is what did the U.S do to make Russia turn on Iran?

Just because they think for themselves doesn't mean the U.S cannot bribe them in some way. It could honestly be anything, and I'm also sure that Russia wouldn't want to defend Iran in a scenario that could provoke world war 3 if Russia gets involved.

[edit on 7-8-2010 by princeofpeace]

Originally posted by illusive man

dont go with russia as they will simply stab you in the back?

LOL..

How many times has US done that? Iraq.. Peru... Taliban.. to name a few.

Some other recent news that can shed some perspective...and as always, it's very interesting to see which media takes which position.

Ahmadinejad claims Russia and China abandoning Iran for US

Obama So Far: Iran, Russia and China

Q&A-What are Russia's energy interests in Iran?

Central Asia close to chaos due to US efforts – Russian MP

[edit on 8/7/2010 by ~Lucidity]

Originally posted by princeofpeace
Nah...Russia is too big and bad to take bribes. Plus their gov't is way too ethical to do such a thing. They would tell the US to go screw themselves. They love Iran.

[edit on 7-8-2010 by princeofpeace]

I'm hoping thats sarcasm.
I have the feeling all the major alliances of today are just posturing, and that when the inevitable WW3 comes, all alliances will be broken.

reply to post by hippomchippo


Exactly. Or at least greatly shifted...even in some ways no one can predict, I'd bet.

It really is a stretch for me to think of a scenario where Russia would be allied with the U.S. The best I can do is neutral, and that's probably wouldn't last long.

Russia is simply trying not to give any opportunity for there to be an excuse for the US or Israel to attack Iran and expand US influence in Central Asia or on it's borders, so goes along with a so-called consensus against Iran if it sees it as not harming Russia's interests and does not mean the beginning of a war. Russia does not want to see US or NATO's influence expand further into Asia, or anywhere near it's borders.

Russia probably have got something out of it's temporary anti-Iran stance. Probably some geopolitical and geostrategical wheeling and dealing and deals.

But Russia does not want to see the US/NATO expand it's influence into Asia from any war on Iran so will remain supportive of Iran, even if not overtly. So Russia goes along with measures against Iran for the time being to prevent any "Well we tried peace but Russia blocked us" excuse from the US/Israel as a pretext for war.

[edit on 9-8-2010 by Regensturm]